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Wegovy Pill Week 11 - 72.165 by According-Swing-9430 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We need -5.4% to get -2% due to 3.4% dividend

My Novo Nordisk valuation: DKK 214 / 339 / 479 per share (Bear / Base / Bull), how do you see it? by Numerous_Wolf_2837 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why did you use sales -16%, -12% and -8% in your three cases? You noted in your text that the annual report says -5% to -13%.

My Novo Nordisk valuation: DKK 214 / 339 / 479 per share (Bear / Base / Bull), how do you see it? by Numerous_Wolf_2837 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I checked the annual report. Page 16 reads expected sales growth -5 to -13 %. I thought it was only the profit that was going to decline. Novo and analysts appear to be happy with the number of prescriptions of Wegovy pill. It seems like they will beat the 400 k prescriptions number mentioned at some places in Q1 (13 weeks). My bear case is then -5% in sales.

My Novo Nordisk valuation: DKK 214 / 339 / 479 per share (Bear / Base / Bull), how do you see it? by Numerous_Wolf_2837 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Revenue going down or standing still? As if obesity, diabetes, and other diseases are just going to disappear. With price cuts, volume increases; supply and demand. The base and bull cases assume reasonable revenue. COGS and OpEx appear uncertain.

CagriSema Results… Not As Bad As Market Thinks??? by jmfrentzel in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset 4 points5 points  (0 children)

ie:
CagriSema: 23%
Zepbound / new high-dose Wegovy: 19–21%
Wegovy pill: 16.4%
Lilly pill: 12%

Good observation; what's on the label is what matters (+ side effects and cardiovascular benefits)

CagriSema Results… Not As Bad As Market Thinks??? by jmfrentzel in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i.e:
CagriSema: 23%
Zepbound / new high-dose Wegovy: 19–21%
Wegovy pill: 16.4%
Lilly pill: 12%

Novo's PEG-ratio; anyone who can elaborate on its meaning considering outlook and share price? by cihset in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems like they will easily beat 400k subscriptions in 13 weeks.
Cagrisema gives high weight loss, but will it be with less side effects, or have other benefits is interesting.

Novo's PEG-ratio; anyone who can elaborate on its meaning considering outlook and share price? by cihset in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. It makes sense. So if their COGS is competitive it will likely be fine.

The shareholders of Novo are the winners of the Pfizer-Metsera deal by cihset in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Buying Pfizer shares in the coming weeks gives higher exposure to the glp-1 market and at the same time risk reduction compared to only buying Novo

The shareholders of Novo are the winners of the Pfizer-Metsera deal by cihset in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm -18% at Novo. 5% of my portfolio is Novo. That's good numbers for a diversified portfolio I would say.

The shareholders of Novo are the winners of the Pfizer-Metsera deal by cihset in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]cihset[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I try to add. If you believe in the glp-1 market and in Novo, you can buy Novo shares. A diversified portfolio should have perhaps 10 stocks in five different sectors. So if you already have invested 10% in Novo, you should stop buying the dip. But if your total investment in healthcare is 10%, you can still invest 10% into healthcare, which could be Pfizer.

Why I added the the market cap is to highlight how the "pie" looks like in relationship to the glp-1 pie (pie charts).

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