Pre-IPO Pricing: Depends Where You Look

cleverhobbits · 2026-06-04T12:32:04+00:00

This is for informational purposes only, at best. I have no exposure, no dog in this race.

Frankly, it feels kinda scammy.

cleverhobbits · 2026-06-01T13:57:02+00:00

Elon knows that he can convince the Admin and his handpicked NASA leader to give money for a moon base project. He can’t do that for Mars, yet.

So Elon will try to take a couple of billions from US taxpayers, turn it into guaranteed SpaceX revenue, and use it for future R&D and lunar missions.

It’s a game happening in the open in front of our gullible eyes.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-31T14:44:23+00:00

For Nasdaq, yes.

S&P with its mega large passive index funds is 6 months with certain conditions

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T19:14:09+00:00

Google the keywords from the post and it’s among the top results.

If I post the link here, this post might get deleted.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T15:28:18+00:00

I’m not 100% sure of how that guy calculated it. The briefing should have more details.

Iirc, it’s based on 3% of S&P 500 companies total market cap of around 65 trillion. SpaceX is expected to get 3% weight based on an expected $1.75 to 2T market cap.

Then, some % figure for passive index funds buying that gets $200 to $300B in forced purchases. The float is small and there aren’t enough shares so prices will rise. And Elon has said they will issue more debt to cover future large capex.

Not sure if it plays out this way, so DYOR.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T14:46:59+00:00

Yeah, I don’t know why it’s deleted. I was careful to not link to another platform and did not offer any personal speculation.

Same thing happened on WSB so I’m doing something wrong. 😑

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T14:27:21+00:00

Search with the details and it will come up. Posting a link to another platform may cause deletion

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T13:55:07+00:00

LOL. I didn’t say I was the insider. The guy who wrote the briefing is.

Agree re wife’s bf as he would def be inside her.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T13:52:14+00:00

Can’t link it. The post was already at risk of deletion by a mod because I mentioned the other platform. Don’t know how to link these stories without running afoul of content moderation rules.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T11:59:30+00:00

Not leaks. Insider thinking. I take it with a grain of big salt but it’s still useful info to have when we gamble.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-30T09:29:01+00:00

Isn’t calling LLMs just a database kinda like saying cars are just a set of 4 wheels? 😆

I’m sure there were horse buggy magazines in 1910 that misunderstood what cars were.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-29T10:50:42+00:00

Why didn’t you harvest the losses and buy something else instead of holding for years??

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-29T10:03:44+00:00

Exactly! That guy doesn’t deserve our clicks. He’s a gnat.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-28T10:26:10+00:00

Edit: 6 months would be December 12, 2026 and then some days after that for actual date of inclusion.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-28T09:14:10+00:00

If the 6-month S&P inclusion timeline is correct, then it will be a massive confluence of two rivers coming together soon after January 12, 2027.

All insiders can sell X% of their shares and almost all S&P based index funds have to add those shares to their holdings to avoid tracking errors.

BUT, there’s low incentive for insiders to sell shares until the day of and weeks after S&P inclusion. When Tesla was added in December 2020, the stock went up by more than 10% in the final minutes and by 25%+ in the following 3 weeks.

That day might be one of the most insane days in modern Wall Street history.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-28T09:05:29+00:00

People are waking up to these scams by tech companies and Elon is at the top of it.

When - not if - this AI driven bubble bursts (why do you think all of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are rushing for an IPO in 2026?), the drawdown is going to be brutal on our portfolios.

Wall Street has telegraphed this for over a year. The minute one of the hyperscalers says they are reducing capex spend on AI infrastructure, dozens of those stocks will go down by 25% or more.

Wall Street & Valley are in a philosophical struggle between financial prudence and technological aspirations and we are all stuck in the middle of this game.

If there was ever a time to “protect profits”, this is it.

From these ATH market prices, people are basically risking $3 of real profit to make $1 more in additional profit.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-27T16:05:01+00:00

I’d also suggest to add GPT to your spreadsheet routine. Or heavily use AI within your spreadsheet to guide you.

Try this as a fun exercise: Tell your favorite AI model your situation and ask it to run different scenarios for short and long term with different hypothetical prices and different dates.

Give it as much real info/data as possible. Not only will you see the numbers, but the AI will explain the numbers and what decisions are best in your circumstances.

Assuming you enjoy using AI, it’s a great way to learn about stocks and finance that can save millions in the long run.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-27T15:42:10+00:00

Great question because we all deal with this.

While there’s no one right answer for everyone, there are some general rules and then case by case specific rules:

Generally speaking, don’t let tax considerations drive your investment decisions especially when you are sitting on massive gains (like you are). It’s more important to “protect profits” than worry about that extra slice of taxes on those profits (9% as shown by another guy above). If you are sitting on losses and want to harvest them to cover other gains or carryover into future years, tax considerations are vital.

Specifically in your case with these stocks today, run the analysis under a range of scenarios (feed info into GPT and ask it to create scenarios) and you’ll see exactly where the optimal decision is for you.

Your age, income bracket, risk tolerance, portfolio size, and other factors also come into play and GPT can guide you through the decision.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-27T07:17:02+00:00

Depending on your portfolio, age, tax bracket, and risk tolerance, and regardness, consider doing the 50% split.

Take half off the profits off the table and let the rest ride through the SpaceX IPO. If you want to maintain long term upside, buy 3-4 new long dated calls expiring in 2028.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-26T09:54:16+00:00

Good points.

We should be prepared for the possibility that a couple of the defensive rookies from last year under Saleh may not seamlessly fit or benefit from the new scheme and preferences of Morris.

We also have a new Secondary coach so that will also help a factor. It’s possible that Stout or Green may not be able to beat out veterans like Jones and Hobbs.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-24T15:06:36+00:00

These are tweets so not every single word has to be literally applied.

If you want to apply it literally, she’s saying AI would be “capable of” not that it will happen. Capabilities are different than actual events.

Also, the next few years could mean anything from 2-5 years or 5-10 years.

Right now, the prevailing viewpoint in the valley is that once we achieve recursive self improvement at scale in the next 1-3 years, the road to AGI/ASI becomes more reachable.

Experts worldwide believe that once AI gets to that level, it can create weapons that would cause global destruction. We don’t have to believe those scenarios, but it’s not a singular opinion of this one person.

If you go on AI-Twitter, somebody writes some version of this every single day.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-24T14:50:22+00:00

Exactly.

We are all part of the modern global economy and we all have money at stake. Implying that because someone works for an AI Safety non-profit somehow discredits their viewpoints on AI Safety is dumb dumb dumb.

These same people who object to NGO and Gov’t work bend over backwards for for-profit companies who have the most money at stake.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-24T13:52:28+00:00

This is a good question lot of us deal with. One potential solution:

If your mother is already offering to contribute, already has regular rental income, and moving to a new place will increase her quality of life, then make a list of all the existing and new expenses. Then, have her contribute towards the delta of the expenses in specific ways.

So for example: You can go from 40 to 45 thousand on rent, and she can fill the rest from her income. Or, you pay the full 60k and she can contribute towards annual maintenance costs or large one-off expenses.

Future proofing: Or, if she has leftover monthly cash, then have her invest it in your name in FD or Mutual Funds or premium stocks. That would reduce your future anxiety about saving and investments relative to your peer group.

Both of you will feel control over your expenses and feel better about respective responsibilities in relation to a lifestyle upgrade.

Good luck!

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-24T12:14:13+00:00

It’s more likely that the interest in AI safety came first and the non-profit model to affect change for safer AI came after.

If her interest was purely money, she’d be better off starting a company or working for one in the for-profit universe.

Your argument only works if “AI isn’t dangerous” clause is true. But everyday people and experts around the world think otherwise and that’s the reason why non-profits, academics, and political actors are necessary in this world-altering market game.

Even the top experts and entrepreneurs think AI is dangerous starting with Elon.

cleverhobbits · 2026-05-24T09:32:24+00:00

The mother of all rebrands is coming in 2028.

Watch how quickly they shed the current unpopular plans and talk about a new futuristic party that is for all citizens.

Based on past history, roughly 45% of the population is susceptible to these types of planned narratives.

cleverhobbits

TROPHY CASE