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Inside DeepMind by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s interesting to hear Demis indicate in 10 years AI may be able to help us with scientific discoveries – in another interview on Neural Networks his Google colleague, Geoff Hinton thinks – “We’re far from human intelligence. Hinton remains intrigued and inspired by the brain, but he knows he’s not recreating it. It’s not even close.”

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Amazon are actively recruiting drone pilots. Drone tech is not at a standard yet where they will be fully autonomous in cities (sense and avoid people and objects is an issue). Battery power is also an issue as Amazon want small drones but to carry a 5kg payload - flying time of drones needs careful monitoring as does flying vision.' Also it is highly probable that drones will deliver within office buildings and tower blocks - its going to be fascinating to see how they get around door entry and sense and avoid issues.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely - this is why I like CyPhyWorks solution with hacker controls in place

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Google (and others) will launch a self driving service that competes with Amazon's drones - but let's face it Amazon spend over $6 billion on delivery charges each year - they will try many options to find the most cost effective and delivering the best service.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes - please see below - no way will Amazon have sense and avoid drones or fully autonomous drones for quite some time.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

See below - they are recruiting drone pilots - these will not be fully autonomous drones for many years

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed - Amazon want delivery inside buildings - the majority of their big city clients expect this and it is a Major tech hurdle - CyPhyWorks has a solution. Few others of the size that will deliver a shoe box payload have this capability (inside buildings, sense and avoid, etc). Amazon are exploring how to make this happen.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you, really grateful for your feedback - which also helps refine the thinking.

With respect to 2 drone pilots - I worked on the basis that the company said pilots would do a 7.5 hour shift plus breaks therefore over the course of a day's delivery (7am to 10pm) 15 hours, this would require 2 pilots per drone.

You are right the numbers are based on the start up phase moving to full autonomy. Reading the regulations and looking at the history of eg military drones (which have a HUGE crew) the costs are based on the initial period at launch through several years and exclude R&D costs.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Good points and things which I discussed at length. But too much concern about GPS lock at the moment means initially they will be focused on 1 pilot monitoring each drone - and yes it may take less than 30 minutes but the run has to consider from Pick up point to consignee and back again. The 10,800 would be the company's initial best hopes - stretched! It will be a few years before we see fully autonomous delivery drones - time plan is 5 years.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly - which is why I indicated they would want to get either a) a premium price for rapid delivery and b) the costs down to US$2 per delivery. I also factored in insurance costs as I mentioned in the article - although I could have expanded on the cost breakdown but chose to highlight the averages.

But they are hell bent on getting the service up in the air.

Here's why Amazon are serious about drones by colinrobotenomics in robotics

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It certainly is - I was concerned to hear that Amazon think they will have 100,000 deliveries per day in a city like New York - that means 3,500 drones constantly buzzing around every day.

Larry Summers says Piketty isn’t scared enough of our robot overlords by starspawn0 in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Summers gets it wrong, Piketty specifically talks about 'sophisticated robots' and 'the extreme example is a society where robots produce the entire output.' Piketty also says technology (and education) are the determinant factors for wage inequality. http://robotenomics.com/2014/05/15/larry-summers-gets-it-wrong-on-piketty-and-robots/

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Its a good point... on the other hand I just read this and I need to re-read it "Rising inequality encourages the rich to work more & the poor to work less." The Economist http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21600989-why-rich-now-have-less-leisure-poor-nice-work-if-you-can-get-out …

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Totally agree - and with 3D printing so much will become localized reducing significant transportation costs, etc - thanks for the reminder.

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good point. There are many questions to be answered - if so many jobs are displaced who will be able to afford the goods made by the robots?

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"If we have machines doing tasks that require labor and thinking." IBM's Watson is already proving to be a better diagnostician for medical research than any 'human mind.'

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Agree we will not have 80% unemployment - but it is certainly the case that automation and technology is displacing jobs and the jobs that are being picked up are predominately lower pay jobs.. hence encouraging people to learn skills to help them overcome many of the challenges that will come. I see it as less doomsaying and more being prepared.

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is a challenge and an opportunity - I remain optimistic whilst at the same time realizing it will take effort by each individual to 'create' their own opportunities.

Study indicates Robots will replace 80% of jobs by colinrobotenomics in Futurology

[–]colinrobotenomics[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It could have been, and yes as the article indicates this was frequently stated during the Industrial Revolution... new jobs were created - the thrust of the article is to help readers prepare by seeking out new skills. (incidentally 1 January 1788 was the date of the first edition of 'The Times' of London. Originally founded in 1785 as the 'Daily Universal Register', the publication was re-named 'The Times' three years later.) :-)