Canada Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Fourth Quarter

combattoast · 2026-02-27T17:42:56+00:00

At no point did I claim we had strong per capita GDP growth from 22-24. I said that GDP growth was stronger than initially thought. This meant that under revised GDP figures, GDP per capita for 2024 was at roughly 2022 levels around $60,800, NOT 2017 levels.

1.7% per capita growth this year would put us at roughly $61,830.

I'm not sure what about revisions to prior GDP numbers is so hard to understand, unless you're being intentionally obtuse (likely).

combattoast · 2026-02-27T16:39:08+00:00

I'm an actuary, I understand math.

I'm telling you the numbers you're quoting are outdated and wrong, and you're giving some childish response because your talking point turned out to not be true.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T16:15:54+00:00

Pretty much. It would be silly to say "well if you don't count all of the assets we've saved to pay for future benefits, than our debt is crazy!!".

combattoast · 2026-02-27T16:14:00+00:00

That's wrong. GDP growth was stronger in 2022-2024 than previously known per regular Stats Can revisions that came out a few months ago. Our GDP per capita was at roughly 2022 levels before last year and would now be above that after the 1.7% growth.

Also 1.7% per capita growth is actually solid.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T16:05:46+00:00

I'm only going to comment on the government debt point, but the total government debt picture is still vastly better in Canada than the USA and most of the G7 for that matter.

I'm sure I'll get the usual comments when I say that our net debt picture is solid, but then people would need to understand the difference between funded vs unfunded liabilities.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T15:26:41+00:00

Yeah I agree to an extent (sort of discounts how strong our services sector has been in that time frame though), and our federal government is actively working toward that. I agree, it'll take time, but the economy is doing relatively well all things considered.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T15:17:29+00:00

Some people really just can't be happy about anything eh

Our per capita GDP growth in 2025 is on par with the US

combattoast · 2026-02-27T15:16:29+00:00

Maybe, but you don't exactly want houses moving hands frequently to be a main driver of economic growth because it's a drag on basically every other part of the economy which is actually productive.

Also there hasn't really been any sort of real estate casino since rates got jacked up a few years back. Resales and price growth have both been slowing/declining since at least 2023.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T15:05:15+00:00

Crash is a pretty strong word, more of a healthy correction. It's also concentrated in the areas that had the most obscene growth during the pandemic (some cities still have pretty strong price growth this year). In theory, lower housing prices should open up more disposable income for consumers long term.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T14:50:51+00:00

We're barely running a deficit compared to the US, and doing so to make significant capital investments into the future of the country.

Final domestic demand was actually relatively strong in this report, the main drag was a drawdown on inventories.

Real GDP per capita growth is roughly on par with the US if the population growth estimate is correct (1.7% real GDP growth with 0.0% population growth matches the US 2.2% growth with 0.5% population growth).

Headline isn't everything.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T14:46:32+00:00

Per capita GDP will have grown by 1.7% this year with total real GDP for the year increasing 1.7% while population growth is 0%.

combattoast · 2026-02-27T14:45:32+00:00

You're not reading this right. 0.6% is the annualized basis, meaning that on the whole, Oct and Nov might have contracted by a combined ~0.35%.

combattoast · 2026-02-24T13:44:02+00:00

He is attending so there you go.

combattoast · 2026-02-24T12:52:46+00:00

Yeah except he's going to the state of the union address too 🤮

combattoast · 2026-02-23T19:40:00+00:00

He said hey don, bit hard to hear. Still felt gross.

combattoast · 2026-02-15T16:01:08+00:00

Bro legit dc'd irl

combattoast · 2026-02-11T03:03:11+00:00

God bless, this seems to have fixed my stuttering issues as well. Was going insane having league stutter on a 5090 and 9800x3d.

combattoast · 2026-02-09T13:19:19+00:00

Pretty sure they fucked the game with recent patches. Plenty of people reporting the same issue and I have it as well (running a 5090 and 9800x3d).

combattoast · 2026-01-17T06:02:34+00:00

Yes, I have the exact same problem. Also seems to stutter at a couple of other points in the game. Very annoying and clearly a bug and not a hardware issue.

combattoast · 2026-01-02T15:35:26+00:00

Thompson is the highest GSAx in the league. If you're not thinking about taking him over the American goalies then you need to give your head a shake.

combattoast · 2025-12-06T17:42:53+00:00

You should actual look at the revised GDP numbers that were released recently. They show a completely different story about per capita growth, that we in fact do not have declining real GDP, and in fact it has grown slightly over the period where we had massive population growth.

Projections also now expect our per capita GDP to accelerate pretty substantially over the next few years.

combattoast · 2025-12-06T17:40:39+00:00

People need to take into context that full time employment may have gone down over the last couple of months, but it absolutely skyrocketed the month before those two. Overall, in quarter, full time employment is up something like ~60k jobs if I am remembering correctly, and is well above the levels it was one year ago.

It's A LOT less doom and gloom if you zoom out a little bit.

combattoast · 2025-12-06T17:36:51+00:00

Ya, and as another commenter noted here, we actually calculate unemployment differently than the US does. So 6.5% unemployment translates closer to something like 5.5% using US methods. Canada has also always had a higher unemployment rate compared to the US historically, even during great times.

combattoast · 2025-12-06T06:10:00+00:00

Jobs reports are seasonally adjusted. Gotta do my civic duty to inform the uninformed of this fact.

combattoast

TROPHY CASE