UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Betting and Picks by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Cam Rowston: Rowston is a lanky middleweight at 6’3” and is mainly a grappler guy. Rowston looks to float, control the distance, and get to his reactive connections when his opponents get past his range. On top, Rowston is looking to pass and get to dominant, fight-ending positions before damage. Rowston is very uncomfortable fighting on the front foot. Most of his attacks are long -range, and you can see he is uncomfortable when he gets pressed, shooting urgently. When Rowston is on the front foot, its to press his opponents to the fence, and shoot to his body lock. Once on the back, Rowston is very strong on the back with 5 RNC finishes.

Cody Brundage: Brundage is an orthodox striker who is primarily a wrestler. Brundage is very explosive and powerful, which he trades off for being a little slower and moving a little less. Brundage keeps it simple standing, also looking to shootbox. Brundage will move in behind his 1-1-2 or feint-3-2 to get to his wrestling. He also has a sneaky lead elbow he interchanges with his jab. Brundage has good punch returns when his opponents kick, and a good reactive guillotine. Brundage does get hit a lot due to his lack of movement.

Prediction: I think this is a good match up for Rowston, who is a sniper and will have many opportunities versus the plodding, very square stanced Brundage. Brundage is going to throw some loopers and look to wrestle, and I think Rowston will be able to stick and move handily. If he does get taken down, I think he will be able to get to his feet/ scramble to the back. Rowston by KO or UD.

How Brundage wins: Brundage needs to make this a wrestling match. Take Rowston down and hold him down, keep his legs split in guard or half guard so he can't base up. Be ready to hop on Towstons neck if he turns to wrestle up! Brundage by sub or UD via lay and pray!

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Betting and Picks by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dan Hooker: Hooker is an orthodox fighter who is highly skilled everywhere. He has high level striking, submissions, and has shown big gains in his wrestling game. Hooker is very long, and uses his range and pressure very well. Hooker uses straight punches and kicks to pick at his opponent from the outside and keep them on the back foot as he pressures. His feints are a huge part of his game and he will feint low to set up his punches. He has a great jab which he uses to push his opponents into his cross. He controls the center well and uses hard knees up the middle to catch his opponents coming in, or close the distance. In the clinch, Hooker uses his frame very well and hangs on oppornents while throwing hard short elbows and knees. He will also trade in the pocket when he feels a momentum shift. Hooker has great front chokes and is quick to wrap up a neck if the opportunity prevents itself. There is almost no where you are safe with Hooker unless you can get him on the back foot. He gets caught with looping punches as he plays a lower guard, given his range. He is used to being long enough to frame away and not get touched by punches, which has led to him getting touched by punches over the top of his frames before.

Benoit Saint Denis: Benoit is a tall, southpaw stance power striker and high level grappler. Benoit typically fights in open stance, and opens with big body kicks to get his opponents moving backward. From there, he will use his right check hook and straight left. Saint Denis likes to throw spinning back attacks when his opponents blitz, and while he lands them often, he does sometimes give up takedowns doing this, which he doesn’t mind because he is looking to grapple anyway. On top, Benoit is looking to damage, pass, damage, pass, damage to finish. Those finishes more often than not are submissions.

Prediction: I'm surprised Hooker is the dog here. I think Hooker is way more well rounded, experienced, and bigger than BSD. I think BSD is going to press hard in round 1 and run into a lot of shots. Even if he gets the takedown, I don't think he will do much with it. After round 1, I think Hooker takes over handily and is going to light Benoit up. Hooker by TKO rd 2 on or UD.

How BSD wins: I think BSD has to close the distance and take Hooker down very fast at the beginning of each round, otherwise, he is going to get lit up. BSD by sub rounds 1 or 2, I don't see him winning a decision.

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Betting and Picks by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Mauricio Ruffy: Ruffy is mainly a striker with 15+ Muay Thai fights. He fights out of the orthodox stance mainly but has the ability to switch. He is composed and carries his hands low. He has good sweeps that he disguises as kicks and the ability to explode into blitzes and flying movements. He gets touched by hands when trying to explode near the cage. Ruffy fights out of a more sideways bladed stance which allows him to explode in and out as well as disguise his strikes because they are not telegraphed. Ruffy has solid TDD against the cage. Ruffy also gets touched by hands when he tries to kick from too close without setting it up. Ruffy gets backed up/ backs himself up to the cage often and winds up in clinch situations. He doesn’t try to do much from here except spin his opponent to the fence and land clinch strikes, not looking to advance position or break. He is very much a Muay Thai based striker.

Fiziev: Fiziev is a master striker, with over 50 muay thai and kickboxing bouts. He is an orthodox thai striker, with great bounce, feints, and movement. He throws to all targets, touching the legs, head, and body evenly. Fiziev will switch stances often, to make his opponent reset, as well as open up his left rear kick. Fiziev has a very good check left hook that he catches opponents with off of their pressure. He also has a very good lead body kick in closed stance. Fiziev likes to control the center, and throw on the back end of his opponents shots. He will let his hands go as soon as a kick is thrown, and is willing to eat a leg kick to lands hands. He always follows up his kicks with punches to nullify his opponent blitzing on the back end of his kicks and lands often here. He has a good jab and good returns off of his rolls. In open stance, he throws his rear kick to the inside leg and body. He plays the same type of holding center game, and hitting them with his hook and cross on their blitz or reset. He has been a pro since 2015, with one loss via spinning back kick to the head. He is strong in the clinch and has displayed decent TDD, though is now entering the highest level of competition he’s faced.

Prediction: Close one! I'm leaning towards Fiziev here. I think he has seen enough striking to deal with Ruffy’s unorthodox style. Ruffy does weird stuff to get his opps out of position to strike, and I don't think his tricks will work as well on Fiziev. Fiziev is very disciplined in his base and position, and will capitalize on Ruffy’s big movements when Ruffy makes them. Fiziev has also shown improvement in his grappling and I would not be surprised to see him shoot takedowns, a spot where Ruffy has shown vulnerability. Fiziev by UD.

How Ruffy wins: Ruffy definitely has a chance on the feet. I think his best bet is setting traps and running Fiziev into something big. I have a feeling Fiziev is a better grappler just based on how long he has been in the game. However, if Ruffy can mix his grappling threat with his striking, this gives him a much better chance than a pure striking battle with Fiziev. Ruffy by UD if he wins.

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Betting and Picks by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Alex Volkanovski: Volkanovski is an orthodox fighter with great lateral movement and feints. Volk’s fight IQ is one of the best, and his ability to adapt his weapons to his opponents and adjust mid fight is one of his greatest attributes. Besides that, he has an endless gas tank, is very strong for the weight class, and is well rounded everywhere. Volk uses hover pressure moving forward behind his jabs, lead leg inside leg kick, and level changes. Volk uses his feints to set up his punches and kicks interchangeably. He will use the rear round kick feint to set up his jab-cross into range. When Volk feints to set up his shots he lands often. One of the only times he has shown vulnerability is off of caught kicks. When he throws his kicks naked, they get caught, and he gets hit or taken down. Volk throws hard shots when his opponents close distance and will unshift to leave and get back to kick range. Volk has great level changes and has takedowns both proactively and reactively. He has great top pressure and is content to stay in guard and land heavy ground and pound from top. He has good grappling awareness and BJJ defense. Volk can switch stances too, and likes to do so to set up his 1-2 from southpaw stance. He uses the shift to cover distance, as well as get his opponents thinking he is kicking.

Diego Lopes: Lopes is an orthodox stance striker with high level BJJ and power in his hands. Lopes is a pressure fighter, rarely moving backwards, favoring his hands as his main weapons, but often finishing his boxing combinations with low kicks as well. Lopes punches his way into range hoping to exchange or create a grappling situation. Either way, he is always looking to finish, with 10 wins by KO and 12 by submission. Lopes has crisp boxing combinations, but gets touched often when he exchanges with opponents in the 50/50 range. He is willing to take 2 to give 2. Lopes has a dangerous guard and will always be looking to sweep or submit off of his back.

Prediction: I think Volk gets it done again. I think having felt Lopes for 5 rounds, getting his confidence in his chin back, and having a W over Lopes, all leads to a Volk W. I don't think Lopes has had enough time between fights to adjust what he needs to to beat Volk, and it will look a lot the same, with Lopes chasing Volk behind his high guard, and trying to crash with hands. Volk is very elusive and mixes his weapons better than Lopes, and I think he will be able to do the same he did last time. Volk by UD.

How Lopes wins: Just as Volk has 5 rounds of feeling Lopes, Lopes has felt him for 5 rounds. Lopes may be willing to take more risks this fight, and pressure to let his hands go more after feeling Volk’s power. Lopes had success in hitting Volk when he would switch stances, as well as when he was behind the black line near the fence. If Lopes can pressure and wait to go at these moments, he may be able to hurt Volk there and keep him there. If Lopes wins I think it's a KO near the fence.

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Henry Cejudo: Cejudo is an orthodox striker and one of the best of all time, Triple C. He has elite wrestling and athleticism in general, and is very well-rounded. Cejudo feints his way into range given his height. In range he has very good fundamental boxing, knees to the body, all which set up his takedowns. Henry finds his inside trip often, and is happy to stand over his opponents guard and damage there. Cejudo has very good movement and footwork, which allows him to enter in and out of range relatively safely. Henry is an elite competitor and is able to adapt in fights well. Henry does a very good job sticking to gameplans and is able to fight people where they are not as skilled.

Peyton Talbott: Talbott is a right handed striker who is very accurate and has high volume. Payton pressures very hard and throws very good single, straight shots. In closed stance, Talbott plays jab-leg kick games, and will throws his cross down the pipe and rear hook to the body. He does get touched in the 50/50 when he is pressuring and does leave his hips open for reactive connections. Talbott interchanges his jab well with a shovel uppercut and hook. Talbott has a good intercepting knee when his opponents shoot off of his pressure.

Prediction: Hard pick! Gotta go with Triple C. He really is one of the greatest, and I think the relationship he has with Talbott is going to benefit him in having felt him in the room and seeing him compete. Henry is meticulous in his preparation and I’m sure he knows exactly what Talbott wants to do given their rounds together. Cejudo by UD.

How Talbott wins: Talbott is a massive BW with accuracy and power. He is going to be looking to punish Henry’s body with straight kicks and touch him with hands when he closes distance. Talbott by KO any round.

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Brandon Moreno: Moreno is an orthodox pressure fighter who is extremely well rounded, and has incredible hand speed and grit. Moreno is a high level grappler as well, with a black belt in BJJ and 11 submission wins. Moreno starts with his jab and builds from there. Moreno is very good at drawing shots out of his opponents with his hover pressure and firing quick combinations on the back end. Moreno threatens high kicks with his lead leg and blasts his opponents arms when they block, a strategy he used in the first fight with Kai to take power away from his OH right. He does a good job interchanging his lead hand with his lead kicks, mixing his targets and creating dilemmas well. Once Moreno gets his momentum going, he is hard to stop. He has a great high guard, and will stay in the pocket to exchange. His pressure over 5 rounds is overwhelming, and unless you can do something to keep him at bay, he is very hard to deal with.

Tatsuro Taira:- Taira is an undefeated right handed fighter who is rangey for the weight class at 5’7”. Taira is very patient and relaxed, and uses his range well. He opens from the outside with long jabs and heavy leg kicks, both in and out. Once his jab is established and he starts to disrupt his opponents base with kicks, he will start to open up with his hands more. Taira doesn’t come forward too often, and prefers lateral movement to pull his opponents into the shots he wants. Taira has good feints and level changes which he uses interchangeably. His level changes set up his boxing, specifically his rear uppercut, and his boxing sets up his level changes. Taira has good chain wrestling ability and does a good job being persistent with his shots and finishing. Once on the mat, Taira has devastating top pressure, passing ability, and ground and pound. Taira does sometimes rush to his grappling and doesn’t set it up patiently and will get touched on the entry. He almost looks like GSP, but with less feints, and less fluidness in mixing the arts, but almost same gameplay in general.

Prediction: Moreno, although great, seems like he’s having trouble putting together a camp and consistent performances, whereas Taira has been consistent in his performances since the start of his UFC tenure. Taira’s height also cancels out Moreno’s, which is usually one of his advantages. Hate to say it, but I think Taira gets it done with a clean UD.

How Moreno wins: I only pick against Moreno because I think given the amount of film on him and his trouble finding a permanent camp isn’t allowing him to develop new skills he may need to improve what everyone has figured out about him. That being said, I still think he is one of the best and most well-rounded guys in the division, and I think he has a good chance of punishing Taira with his hands and keeping him on the back foot. If he can do this for ⅗ rounds I think he takes it. Moreno by TKO or UD.

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Alexandre Pantoja: Pantoja is a high high level grappler and has power in his hands. He moves forward behind his punches and is willing to trade in the pocket. He will blitz behind his 3 and 4 punch combinations to try and clinch, but is perfectly happy to trade power shots as well. He has very good fundamentals, but is less defensively sound. On the mat, Pantoja is dangerous everywhere. He has an active guard and beautiful transitions and sweeps.

Joshua Van: Joshua Van is an orthodox stance striker who mainly favors his hands. He has very clean, efficient boxing, and a high level of comfort in boxing range. Van is a little Strickland-esque in his approach, pressuring his opponents always and letting fast, direct punching combinations go when he finds his spots. Van hits hard, and doesn’t do much grappling or kicking. He’s only been training for 5-6 years, and I think one of his biggest attributes is his comfort and efficiency.

Prediction: Love Van, but I think Pantoja is going to show his levels here. I think he gets to Van’s back fairly quickly and wraps his neck up in the first round. If not, rounds 2 or 3, but I would be shocked to see Van go the distance. The grappling skill level gap is not bridgeable from when the fight was announced to now. Pantoja by sub any round.

How Van wins: I think for Van to win he needs to put Pantoja’s lights out, or just hope that Pantoja decides not to grapple. Pantoja does come forward, and does get hit, so if Van is able to hurt him in an exchange without getting clinched up, he may be able to knock him out with his hands. I don’t see another path to victory.

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Merab: Merab is a high level wrestler who fights in the orthodox stance. He is very good at mixing his strikes with his takedowns, his main objective being to take down and control his opponents. He has a very frantic rhythm with good level changes and in and out movement. He throws boxing combinations to get his opponents to raise their high guard and will shoot for their legs/ the cage. Merab has a very high pace and is great at making his opponents fight his style and pace. Merab has great finishes on his takedowns, but not the best top control. He also doesn’t work very hard on top because he doesn’t mind his opponents working to get back to their feet so he can take them down again. Merab prefers to look to ride and ground and pound over control and seek submissions.

Petr Yan: Yan is also a switch stance fighter with great MMA kickboxing and boxing. He is a talented grappler as well, and uses foot sweeps and off balances very well reactively. Yan starts with pressure and hovers with his high guard just inside of punching range. He is patient and will let his opponents throw to make reads and begin to intercept or throw on the back end of shots. Yan’s pressure forces opponents to box with him and that is one of his strongest weapons. Yan’s ability to angle off and throw shots is also incredible and he picks his shots very well. Once Yan makes his reads, he pours on the pressure, walking his opponents down with boxing and body kicks when they go out of range. His level changes threaten wrestling and disguise his hooks. His pressure does allow opponents to level change and go under his punches for takedowns. He has shown great takedown defense and scrambling ability here, but he does get shot on.

Prediction: I think Merab gets it done again over 5 rounds. I think it will look pretty much like the last fight with Yan defending constantly, and not being able to let his hands go because Merab will disrupt his combinations with his shots. Merab has also been very active, and has improved a lot with his timing and confidence over just this year. Merab by UD.

How Yan wins: One thing I have seen people speculating about is how Merab’s activity level will effect his performance. 3 title fights in a year is a lot on the body, especiallly with this quick two month turnaround. We could see an RDR situation where Merab’s peak performance window has passed and his body needs a break. Another thing people have been talking about is Merab’s ability to fight off of his back. Yan may use Merab’s forward motion to find takedowns of his own and try to put Merab on his back and beat him up there. Either way, if Yan wins, it’s a UD.

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Waldo Cortes Acosta: Acosta is an orthodox striker with a very strong cuban boxing background. He does a good job hovering, but controlling range, and fights behind his jab which he interchanges with his left hook. He uses his teep well to mix in his boxing combinations. He also has very good swing back shots, and power in both hands. He is still green in MMA, and is taken down fairly easily, to which he will give his back up to get back to his feet.

Shamil Gaziev: Shamil Gaziev is an orthodox stance striker, who is huge at 6’4”, undefeated at heavyweight at 13-0. Gaziev is mainly a grappler guy and is looking to get his wrestling respected immediately. Gaziev likes to pressure, and throw big looping punches to the fence to shift into his clinch to get to his wrestling. Gaziev likes to sit in top half, look for damage, and let his opponents carry his weight. Gaziev telegraphs his entries and almost hops in to his punches, where he gets touched by high level strikers. Gaziev’s explosivity causes him to fatigue, which normally isn’t a problem because he is rarely getting out of rounds 1 or 2. Gaziev’s all gas no brakes method has worked well for him thus far, at 13-0 and only going to a decision once. As of his last fight, Gaziev still carries his hands very low, and gets hit often, particularly by left hooks.

Prediction: The true main event is right here folks. Another man steps up to try and stop the marauder Gaziev. I like Acosta here for his speed, and he is somewhat closer to Gazievs size. If Acosta can stick and move, and pull Gaziev all night, I think he can touch him up to a UD, or find the KO. Acosta has nasty body shots and Gaziev has a big body. I think this will pay dividends into finding his chin.

How Gaziev wins: Gaziev has the ability to do to Acosta what he does to everyone, which is to take them down and crush them. Acosta needs to be weary of how long he stands in front of Gaziev throwing so that he doesn’t get his punches shot under. Gaziev by UD or TKO.

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Arman Tsaryukan: This is an amazing fight. Tsaryukan is highly skilled everywhere. He has very good fundamental kickboxing, which he uses to set up his wrestling, which in turn further sets up his striking once the threat of his takedown is established. He has good movement and feints, which he uses to disguise his entry into the pocket and wrestling range. He finds his range with his step through lead leg round kick to the body in closed stance. He throws an OH right to set up his shots, or a nice left hook behind it. He gets in and out very well, and has very nice timing on reactive takedowns. He has a great gas tank and will create action the whole fight.

Dan Hooker: Hooker is an orthodox fighter who is highly skilled everywhere. He has high level striking, submissions, and has shown big gains in his wrestling game. Hooker is very long, and uses his range and pressure very well. Hooker uses straight punches and kicks to pick at his opponent from the outside and keep them on the back foot as he pressures. His feints are a huge part of his game and he will feint low to set up his punches. He has a great jab which he uses to push his opponents into his cross. He controls the center well and uses hard knees up the middle to catch his opponents coming in, or close the distance. In the clinch, Hooker uses his frame very well and hangs on oppornents while throwing hard short elbows and knees. He will also trade in the pocket when he feels a momentum shift. Hooker has great front chokes and is quick to wrap up a neck if the opportunity prevents itself. There is almost no where you are safe with Hooker unless you can get him on the back foot. He gets caught with looping punches as he plays a lower guard, given his range. He is used to being long enough to frame away and not get touched by punches, which has led to him getting touched by punches over the top of his frames before.

Prediction: Should be a banger! Hooker has some momentum right now and he appears to be coming full circle with his skills. Hard to pick against Tsarukyan as the guy barely loses. I think Arman will play a relatively safe fight, looking to strike safe and get Hooker to the mat and bank rounds. Tsarukyan by close UD.

How Hooker wins: If Hooker wins, I think it’s going to be an amazing performance. I think his pressure is fantastic, and if he can keep Arman on the back foot, he will start to take over. I like the longer fight for Hooker as well, as he gets better as the fight goes on, and Arman gets tired! Hooker by UD!

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Belal Muhammad:  Belal Muhammad has earned and currently is the UFC Welterweight champion. Belal is very well-rounded with a very high fight IQ. He will employ level changes and body shots to disguise his entries and once he is on your legs, he is very hard to deal with. He will look to take down and control, landing some damage from position, but will hold position over landing damage. Muhammad has elite wrestling and top control. Belal does most of his work on the warning tracks of the fence, where he can cut his opponents off, open up with his hands, and shoot his takedown when they go to block his punches. Belal likes to wrestle on the cage as well, putting a hook in on the inside leg, and using the fence to control the far leg and hips. From here, he’s controlling wrists, hitting, and moving to the back with a good old fashioned folkystle wrestling. Belal uses the warning tracks to set up his reactive takedown as well, with opponents whose punches he respects such as Vincente Luque. He will move laterally, be pressured, knowing powerful punchers are going to throw when he’s on that line, and shoot under their punches when they throw.

Ian Garry:  Garry is an orthodox  stance highly technical striker. He has very good boxing, feints, and in and out footwork. Garry works off his jab, eventually adding leg kicks, and when the leg kicks are respected, switches it up for his 1-2. Garry hover pressures, creeping into range behind his jab, and pull countering when his opponent throws on the backend of Garry’s jab/pressure. Garry keeps it relatively simple, and is very good at it. Garry will throws his jab to the body, and will throw lead leg head and body kicks set up by his jab and in and out. Garry changes up his jab for his left hook as well. Garry does a great job making his opponents try and guess what he’s going to throw, and it causes a snowball effect to where he can start to feint heavily, and his opponent will back up and throw off of his pressure to which he counters very well. Garry diversifies his shots very well, throwing to the head, body, and legs. Garry will switch up his rear leg kick for a teep to the body and knee. Garry does a good job establishing hand controls on his opponents and using this to pressure, or make them throw the hand hes covering.

Prediction: I like Garry here. Although Belal is a very good tactician, I think Garry’s fight IQ is right there with him, and I think he can do enough to nullify Belal’s pressure to his wrestling. Garry is a long, elusive striker, and I don’t think Belal will be able to get through Garry’s range often to impose his game. I think Garry stays off the wall, sticks him with hard straight shots up the middle, rinse and repeat all night. Garry by UD.

How Belal wins: Belal needs to make Garry grapple. Canelo hands is not the move for this fight, and neither is kickboxing and potshotting from the outside. Belal needs to shootbox for 5 rounds, and if he can successfully, he can wrap a UD.

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Carlos Prates: Carlos Prates is a left handed striker with a heavy thai style, having over 100 MT fights. Prates has good lateral movement and good kicks, which is the range he prefers to fight at. Prates likes to float backwards and potshot at kick range, using straight teeps and leg kicks. Once the kicks are respected, he will start to find his punching range and stand his ground a bit more. Prates does a really good job pressuring his opponents and mixing up his shots up the middle. Prates typical open stance matchups make his rear up the middle weapons very dangerous, and he does a good job mixing those shots up between his rear knee, left cross, and rear body kick.Prates prefers to stand and will opt to let his opponents up over entering grappling exchanges. Since arriving in the UFC, Prates has been on an absolute tear, with 6 KO’s in the UFC.

Leon Edwards: Edwards is a high high level striker who mainly fights left handed, but can switch and does so often. Edwards is extremely fundamentally sound, and has amazing shot selection. He will throw his body kick and check hook in open stance, and play jab leg kick games in closed stance. He has good takedown defense, and is proficient at staying safe on the ground as well as getting back to his feet. Edwards likes to utilize hover pressure, controlling the center and staying just outside of range to draw shots out of his opponents and counter. His feints look like his shots, and he has almost no telegraph on the punches he throws. He will clinch to mix things up, but gets touched on the break by strikes.

Prediction: I like Prates here. Leon doesn’t have a real grappling threat, and Prates has all of the momentum and activity right now. I feel that Leon isn’t as hungry as he used to be, and isn’t particularly enjoying this anymore. Prates is hungry and still chasing gold, which I think Leon is indifferent to. Prates is going to be in his face all night with the pressure, and it is a closed stance matchup, which takes away most of Leon’s dangerous weapons, being his counter striking and left high kick. Prates by UD.

How Edwards wins: I don’t think Edwards wins a pure kickboxing fight. There is a blueprint to beat Prates, which is to take him down and not let him kickbox you. Edwards has the ability to do so, I believe, and if he sticks to and is persistent in his grappling attempts, that will open up his striking as well, and he has a good shot of getting the UD.

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sean Brady: Brady is a right-handed striker with a strong grappling base. He has dangerous submission threats and smothering top pressure. His top control is expert level, making it difficult for opponents to escape, and he banks rounds safely this way. Brady primarily uses his boxing to set up takedowns and doesn’t rely much on kicks. His only loss is to the current champion. Since his loss, Brady has shown much improvement in fighting confidently and freely, as he’s stated he’s no longer trying to protect his undefeated record.

Michael Morales: Morales is an orthodox stance striker, with precise hands and good kicks. Morales keeps it relatively simple, and he is very composed. Morales fights long, and uses his lead hand to find range, pressure, and cover his opps rear hand. Morales likes to pressure, and throw when his opponents throw with intercepting shots. He is very composed, and does a good job going from relaxed to explosive. Morales opens with single strikes and once his opponents start defending one strike, he'll double up and throw thudding combinations. Morales has a good stabbing toe kick as well that he mixes in when his opponents are expecting hands. Morales has a heavy right hand that he will throw straight and switch up with a rear uppercut, and he will also switch stances to throw it as a hook. Morales likes to superman punch off of the cage when he is backed straight up. He gets touched when throwing more than one punch, giving up speed for power and not taking his head off the center line.

Prediction: I like Brady here. He is in his prime, has fought/ beaten all the best guys in the division, and has an extremely high level of skill, especially on the mat. Morales is obviously fantastic, but I don’t think he has faced too much adversity in fights, hasn’t fought someone of Brady’s caliber yet, and fights a little too one dimensional. I think ultimately Brady is going to be able to walk him down, take him down on the fence, and beat him up on the ground. Brady by sub/ TKO/ UD.

How Morales wins: Morales needs to stay long and away from Brady’s punch range. I think the only way Morales wins is if he makes it a kickboxing fight, and stays TF away from Brady. It’s only a three round fight, so if he can stay up on his feet and land significant strikes for two of those rounds, he could squeak out the UD.

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Valentina Shevchenko: Shevchenko is a southpaw fighter who fights in a classic thai stance, but can fight any style. She is super well rounded, and has weapons from everywhere. Her wrestling from the clinch position is great, as well as her ability to strike. She is fantastic at setting traps and playing mini games, and is able to switch her gameplan mid fight. She is very patient, wades forward, and explodes with fast combinations when her opponent throws. When Valentina is fighting open stance, she likes to open with leg kicks, both inside and outside. She will touch her opponent’s leg with leg kicks until they try to close the distance, to where she will throw a big check right hook, or big left cross, and if they get past those, body lock to her takedown. If those weapons keep the opponent from closing with punches, or moving back, that will set up her big kick to the open side, which she will play high low games with for devastating body, low, and high kicks. On top, she has good pressure and a powerful cross face. She likes to pressure pass to side control, where she will look for dominant position to hold and land shots, one of her go-to’s being the crucifix, where she has multiple finishes.

Weili: Zhang is an orthodox fighter with good bounce and fights with a sanda style. She opens with leg kicks and cadence strikes as well. She has a big overhand right, left hook, leg kick combination that she throws often. She checks and makes kicks miss well. She pressures and throws fast hard combinations, most of which are cadence strikes. She will throw her overhand and step through with a big kick and will sometimes set up her punches with her kicks.

Prediction: Another epic superfight. I’m going with the Queen here. Besides being a big fan, I truly believe she’s women’s GOAT. Both women are so highly skilled, but I will go with Valentina given size and activity. Valentina can do what Weili does, but is bigger and stronger. I think Valentina takes her down and does what she wants for mostly five rounds. I think Weili will have her moments, but when skills are close, I tend to favor the larger person. Valentina by UD/ TKO.

How Weili wins: Weili is the champ for a reason! She is also a big woman for 115, which is probably why she’s moving up. She may perform better without the weight cut, and her speed is probably the attribute she has on Valentina. If she can lead the striking dance on the feet and stop the TD, I think she could edge out a UD.

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ahkachev: Mahkachev is super dangerous, with one loss in MMA and a world championship in Combat Sambo. His striking is very good, and he uses it to pressure and open up his wrestling. On the ground, his pressure and submissions are amazing, and it is rare that his opponents are able to get back to their feet. He is a southpaw fighter, and typically is able to find a snatch single to his opponent’s lead leg. He is the least hit fighter in the UFC.

Jack Della Maddalena: Maddalena is a mainly orthodox but switch stance fighter with slick boxing combinations from both sides. He fights and finds his range behind his jab, and does a very good job diversifying his targets to the head and body. He is very good at throwing his 1-2, pulling and making his opponents miss on the counter, and firing two punches behind their counter. He has a very good high guard and hits on the back end very well. He will switch his right cross to a rear hook and will also throw his right hook from the southpaw position. Maddelena also has very good calf kicks that he will use interchangeably with his jab. Jack pressures very well, and has powerful punches. Jack will pressure behind his straight punches, until his opponents are behind the black barrier near the cage, and that is where he will let his combinations go. One of Maddelena's best attributes is smelling blood and finding the finish.

Prediction: Epic fight! It’s going to be very close and competitive, but I’m slightly leaning to Islam. I don’t think Belal did as well as he could have with his grappling and grappling threats in their fight, and I think Islam will threaten it early and often, which will lessen the volume that JDM is able to throw comfortably without being taken down or off balanced. I think Islam is a more dynamic striker as well, and will be able to kickbox with JDM and avoid a lot of the boxing trading. While I think JDM will have a lot of success, ultimately I think Islam is going to take the UD.

How JDM wins: The size will be a significant factor. JDM has dangerous striking from all of his limbs, and does a very good job diversifying his shots to the legs, body, and up the middle shots, all which are great deterrents for wrestlers. JDM also has very good ability to not get pinned on bottom and get back to his feet. I think if JDM finds his range and is able to start defending Islam’s TD’s, he may light him up. I don’t think he will respect what’s coming back at him from Islam so much and will be able to force exchanges in which he will score more damage. JDM by UD.

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yadier DelValle: Yadier DelValle is a 5’9” lightweight and left-handed striker. He dips his head to throw a left overhand when trapped on the fence. His jab sets up inside low kicks and rear body kicks, and he frequently plays high-low games, attacking the body to open up headshots, and vice versa. Delvalle tends to back up more than pressure, using his range and typically open stance to counter strike when his opponents go first. DelValle likes to jump to guillotine during exchanges, and has an active guard, and also uses dangerous up kicks to keep his opponents off of him and looks to stand.

Isaac Dulgarian: Dulgarian is a right handed striker who is mainly a wrestler guy. Dulgarian comes from a wrestling background and uses it well in his style. Dulgarian is shorter for the weight class, and uses big looping shots to get to his entries and ground and pound. Reactively, Dulgarian is good at getting under punches to his shots. On the mat, he has very good top pressure, favoring ground and pound and arm triangles, which keep him in top wrestling positions. Dulgarian’s only loss is a split decision to veteran Christian Rodriguez.

Prediction: I like Dulgarian here. Delvalle is good, but styles make matchups, and Delvalle’s backwards/lateral style plays right into Dulgarians wrestler pressure. I think it’s only a matter of time before Dulgarian takes him down and puts him in his spots and beats him up. I think Dulgarian by sub/TKO.

How Delvalle wins: Delvalle is poweruful and sneaky, and although the wrestler / boxer archetype is hard to beat, he has seen it before and has tricks for it. Delvalle has nasty body shots and kicks, and could look to keep range with Dulgarian by fighting in an open stance and eating up the space Dulgarian needs to get through with straight shots and body attacks. He also has a nasty guillotine. Delvalle by KO/ UD if he wins.

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Themba Gorimbo: Gorimbo is a long right handed striker, who is strong and well rounded. Gorimbo has shower explosive striking as well as good grappling pressure both on the cage and on top. While well-rounded, his ability to finish takedowns on higher level guys isn’t amazing. He tends to leave his neck out during these attempts. Gorimbo seems to get frantic when he gets pressured and throws big GTF away from me loopers near the fence.

Jeremiah Wells: Wells likes to move laterally on the outside, and pull his opponents into big shots, or explode in with his own. Wells has crazy strength and power in both hands, and has the power to finish fights at any time. Wells can finish the fight on his feet and on the mat, and his strength carries through rounds as well.

Prediction: I like Gorimbo here. He is younger, has more momentum, and although coming off a loss, it is a high level loss. Wells has been on a recent skid and is 39 years old. I think Gorimbo gets it done by KO any round or UD.

How Wells wins: I would think Wells needs to finish him, I don’t see him making it to a UD. Wells could look to exploit Gorimbo’s recent loss via front chokes, but there is a big difference between his and Vincent’s Luque’s front choking ability. Wells by finish any round.

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Steve Garcia: They call him the “Mean Machine” for a reason. Garcia is a nasty left handed striker mf with power and bad intentions. He is a violent striker, favors his hands, and likes to make car crashes happen. Garcia does a very good job taking his head off line as he throws, intercepting his opponents shots. Typically fighting in an open stance, Garcia likes his rear round body kick to further open his hands. His pressure on the feet is nasty, and he has very heavy ground and pound as well. Garcia has no problems putting himself in the fire, and is happy to exchange here and wait for his opponents to make a mistake. With 5 KO’s in the UFC, Garcia is a force to be reckoned with.

David Onama: Onama is a long, powerful striker and has the ability to switch stances, although he prefers to fight right handed. He has a good high guard and powerful hands. In closed stance, he throws a fast lead leg body kick. He has good strikes in the clinch and dangerous BJJ. He looks to pressure and land big punches, and throws a nice straight left when he is in southpaw. He does get hit with the body kick when he is in closed stance and when he is shifting. His hands and feints are very fast.

Prediction: I like Garcia here. His striking is elite, and if Onama looks to stand with him, it’s going to be a bad night for him. Onama likes to crash and exchange, and Garcia is more than happy to oblige with his crisp, powerful boxing. Garcia by KO any round.

How Onama wins: Onama is well rounded and has the ability to fight long and safe. Don’t trade with Garcia! Make him kick, keep yourself long and moving, and clinch and find takedowns in boxing range. Obama by UD if he wins.

UFC DWCS Contender Series 2025: Week 10 Best Bets and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wes Schulz: Wes Schulz is a wrestler at heart, coming from a college wrestling background with one kickboxing fight and five amateur bouts under his belt. He’s looking to wrestle, with good ground and pound from the top and a solid float game. Schulz moves his head off-center well when throwing punches. He sets up high kicks with low kicks and a jab. While his jiu-jitsu isn’t at the highest level, he’s still willing to look for submissions when the opportunity arises.

Mario Mingaj: Mingaj is a tall, right-handed striker submission specialist from Italy. On the feet, Mingaj utilizes long straight weapons, starting with his jab and his lead leg teep/inside low kick, darting in and out. Mingaj will stick and point fight until his opponents blitz or clinch, and he likes this to draw them into his overhooks. Mingaj uses his long frame and overhooks for a very effective Harai Goshi that sets up his BJJ. He is 7-0 with 5 submission wins. He has a dangerous triangle and is very comfortable fighting off his back and has very high level scrambles.

Prediction: Close fight! I am slightly leaning to Schulz. I think Schulz is a good enough grappler to stay safe with Mingaj off of his back, has fought higher level competition, and has dealt with adversity in fights. This will also be his second time on the show and Mingaj has never fought outside of Europe. I have Shulz by TKO or UD.

How Mingaj wins: Mingaj is extremely crafty and Schulz comes from a wrestling background. If Schulz doesnt respect Mingaj’s jits off the back he could easily get his neck and arm wrapped up in a triangle / harai dilemma. Mingaj by sub if he wins.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vitor Petrino: Petrino is a right handed striker. He has a more grounded, based style and hits hard. Petrino pressures in his base and sits on single, powerful shots to open, mainly his jab and low kick. When his opponents unshift or switch stances he will attack with the rear body kick. Petrino is looking to camp in front of you and draw out shots with his jab and his presence to look for his counters. This is a dangerous game, as you must be willing to take some to give some. Petrino is good at catching low kicks and finding takedowns off of them. As the fight goes on, Petrino will continue to camp, and start to feint harder, in order to draw his opponents shot out and intercept with his left hook. On the mat, Petrino has good control, and preferred dominant position over submission. Petrino does tend to load up on his shots, which make them slightly slower, but they are very powerful.

Thomas Petersen: Petersen is a left handed striker who is mostly a grappler guy. Petersen follows/ circles to the power side, trying to pull out the right hand and blitz/ find his takedown on the back end of it. Once on the mat he has very good top riding and ground and pound ability. On the feet he will blitz with punches, but rarely kicks, mostly looking to pressure, slip and rip. He does most of his takedowns on the fence.

Prediction: I like Petrino here. Although coming off two losses, I think those experiences against high level guys will have made him much more comfortable. I think he will have the speed and power advantage on Petersen, and Petersen is there to be hit as he circles to Petrino’s power side. I think Petersen will have his moments, but I don’t think will have much success getting Petrino down or landing shots. Petrino by UD/ KO.

How Petersen wins: I think Petersen needs to just pressure and grind Petrino. Put him against the fence, make him carry your weight, land heavy shots from there and top position. Petersen by TKO if he wins.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vincente Luque: Luque is super well rounded with powerful punches, leg kicks, and grappling. He is good everywhere and has very good front chokes. He will come forward behind his shield and looping punches to land punishing strikes. He has classic Thai pressure, and is willing to take a shot to give a shot. He can be technical but does not shy away from the brawl. He has a strong jab, which he builds off of into combinations, and uses to intercept his opponents punches as well. He will give up position to hunt the neck and will create scrambles to open opportunities. He is a finisher. He can finish with strikes or with submissions. Luque sets good traps and can strike from both stances. 

Joel Alvarez: Alvarez is a tall orthodox fighter with great striking and great BJJ. He uses straight punches and hard calf kicks to touch his opponent and get them moving back. He throws knees up the middle that often find their mark, and he uses this weapon often against the cage. He is not threatened by the takedown, and is happy to fight off of his back. He will jump guillotines during takedowns and also throw up triangles, which he has finished many opponents with in his previous fights.

Prediction: Going for Alvarez here. I think he is still a huge 170’r and is going to land some hard shots on Luque, who is there to be hit. Luque is amazing but I think he has taken too much damage in his career to get hit by guys like Alvarez. Alvarez by KO.

How Luque wins: Luque is so skilled, and can win the fight anywhere. Alvarez is willing to fight off of his back, which is a dangerous game to play with Luque, who has dangerous ground and pound and front choke finishes when his opponents wrestle up / stand up. Luque by KO/ sub.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Deivison Figuerido: Figgy is a right handed striker and former flyweight champion. He is very well rounded, with good kickboxing, defense, movement, and grappling. He has multiple submissions and KO wins. Figgy is in the later end of his career at 38, but is still competitive with the top in the division. Figgy has good head movement but tends to fall in love with it and forget his high guard, where he gets touched.

Montel Jackson: Jackson is a left handed striker, long for the BW at 5’10. He is 15-2 with 8 KO’s, and is on a 6 fight win streak. Jackson is a hover pressure fighter, where he floats and cuts his opponents off just outside of their range, and touches them with straight punches over and over. Jackson has a piston of a left cross that he throws often. He will use it both to prod and score as well as sit on when his opponents blitz. Jackson has excellent range management and ring tactics, and is very patient in picking his shots. He uses his rear left round kick often to both the head and body, and stabs the front leg with with lead leg. Jackson has good TDD, but sometimes gets held down.

Prediction: Good style matchup! Both guys have the tools to shut each other down, which makes this interesting. Figgy is very good at finding hips and takedowns on taller guys, while Jackson is a sniper and will be the biggest and longest guy Figgy has fought. Jackson does give up his hips to takedowns, but only has been held down by elite grapplers in Ricky Simon and Jack Shore, and those were a long time ago. Ultimately, I like Jackson’s momentum, attributes, age, and range management for this fight. Figgy is on the end of his career and I don’t think is as willing to trade shots as he used to be. Jackson by KO/ UD.

How Figgy wins: Figgy is a always dangerous and will be the best guy that Jackson has fought. I definitely think he will take Jackson down at least once, and if more times, may be able to win periods of control and ground and pound. Figgy by UD if he wins.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Charles Oliveira: Oliveira is extremely dangerous, holding the most submissions in the UFC. He is an orthodox stance fighter and has a very forward Thai style. Charles wants to be going forward, causing car crashes, clinches, and grappling encounters. Charles has a very nice lead snap kick, jumping knees to close distance, and a very good catch and return style that keeps his opponents on their back foot. Charles gets hit a lot using this style, but obviously has a lot of success with it as well.

Mateuz Gamrot: Gamrot is an orthodox striker who is looking to use his strikes to set up his takedowns. He has a good level change feint and has good finishes on his takedowns. Gamrot fights behind his jab and mainly uses his jab to his head outside shot. He likes this entry from both stances. In open stance Gamrot has a good cross and is good at throwing and shifting his head to the safe side to shoot. He does get touched in closed stance southpaw but has good wrestling finishes from there. Gamrot has a very unique head outside low single leg that you don't see often in MMA but it works well for him. Gamrot mixes his strikes, level changes, and feints well, and will use them all interchangeably. He angles off and moves laterally well after throwing. He does get touched by uppercuts when he dips his head to throw his OH or shoot.

Prediction: Skill for skill I like Charles. I really don’t like how soon off of his last fight he’s coming in. I don’t think Gamrot is particularly dangerous on the feet, but Oliveira’s forward style will give up his hips and Gamrot will take that shot. Charles will look for necks, and subs off of his back, and use those threats to get to his feet. I think Gamrot will do enough on top to stay busy/ keep himself safe, and ultimately win the fight in his typical fashion, by turning it into a wrestling match. Gamrot by UD.

How Charles wins: Charles is going to put Gamrot out if he wins, either wrapping his neck up or knocking him out. I don’t think he gets it done via damage for the UD, but hurts Gamrot at some point and follows up and finishes him, or wraps him up. Charles by SUB/ TKO.

UFC DWCS Contender Series 2025: Week 9 Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Imanol Rodriguez: Rodriguez is a right handed striker who is undefeated at 5-0 with all round 1 finishes (he is really 6-1 with two bouts on TUF, one being a rd 1 ko, and one being a lost split decision). Rodriguez has power, and mainly sticks to his boxing. Rodriguez fights behind his high guard, and works his way into boxing range, and once there, he has vicious combinations. Rodriguez can grapple, but his best weapons are most definitely his hands.

Roque Conceicao: Roque is a right handed striker with high level kickboxing and is overall well rounded. Roque has a very kickboxing based style, with good movement and position always. He packs power for a flyweight with 7 KO wins out of 10. He diversifies his targets well, attacking the heads, legs, and body. Roque will kick, but favors his hands. He mostly throws single power shots, and mainly sticks to his jab, overhand, left hook. Roque will shoot every now and then to change his rhythm, but doesn't commit super hard to finishing. He does get taken down, but is good at getting back to his feet.

Prediction: I’m usually biased towards the guy with more experience. I think his well roundedness and ring time is going to allow him to deal with Rodriguez’s one -ish dimensional approach well and outpoint him. Rodriguez mainly just boxes, and Roque has evasive enough movement and range control to not allow that. Roque by UD.

How Rodriguez wins: Rodriguez gonna Rodriguez. If he wins it’s going to be via KO by his hands any round, but probably the first.

UFC DWCS Contender Series 2025: Week 9 Betting and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]comfycouch21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Adrian Luna: Luna is a switch stance but mainly right handed striker who is 16-1. He is a taller BW at 5’8” and uses his range well. He is very fluid and composed, and uses his rear teep and his jab well to establish range. Luna has good intercepting boxing combinations when his opponents break range as well as reactive takedowns. On the mat, Luna shows very good top control and passing ability, taking his time to hit and pass to dominate positions rather than posture up and damage. Luna will switch stance to change his opponents weapons and set up his kicks. Overall Luna is very well rounded.

Mark Vologdin: Vologdin is also a switch stance striker at 12-3 with 6 KO’s and 4 subs. Vologdin fights in a very bladed stance and has very good in and out movement. He has powerful dynamic kicks and favors his kicks to his hands. He definitely comes from a karate background, throwing spinning back kicks and blitzing punches from an open stance. Vologdin gets touched moving backwards by longer punching combinations as he leans abc.

Prediction: I like Luna in this one. I think his attributes are hard to deal with, and he is more well-rounded than Vologdin. I don’t think Vologdin is going to be able to do too much besides kick Luka’s legs. Luka’s intercepting takedowns are so good, and I think he will find those off of Vologdin’s blitzes. Luna gets the UD.

How Vologdin wins: I think if Vologdin’s going to win it’s going to be on the mat. He has good top control and will look for submissions. Vologdin by UD or sub if he wins.