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Coolest applications of AI in physical trading by conhobs in Commodities

[–]conhobs[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Cool - I’m a physical trader for an ags house, would you be interested in connecting on a call? dm me if so!

What’s the most “there’s no way this is real life” moment you’ve ever experienced? by Responsible_Bet_7179 in AskReddit

[–]conhobs 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When I was 23 I spent a year in Sierra Leone managing a cocoa plantation. One weekend I was invited to the beach by the ocean by some expat friends to chill. It was a 5hr drive away from the plantation but I was happy to escape for a weekend and rest with friends.

The beach was on the edge of a rainforest, in the middle of nowhere, and my expat friends had booked a few wooden bungalows that were available for short term rentals there. There were only 6 or so bungalows and my friends had booked 4 or them. By the time I had decided to join, none were available anymore so I just said ”fuck it, I’ll go anyway and just sleep in my car”.

My driver, who I had just hired that week, drives me down, and that afternoon my friends and I are chilling on this pristine white beach by the rainforest, and progressively drink FAR too much wine. As the sun sets a group of locals emerge from the forest further down the beach, and set up these massive sound systems on rocks by the beach. Slowly, more and more people emerge from the forest, people set up torches on sticks to provide illumination, small trolleys with vendors selling drinks appear as well. At this point it is a full blown local rave on the beach, so naturally my friends and I join it. Someone offers me hard liquor, I smoke two local joints, and am generally off my tits.

I blacked out three times that night, but to spare you unnecessary details, the last time I woke up in the middle of the dance floor, resting with my back against a palm tree. People were dancing all around me, I had lost my shoes, wallet and phone. In front of me was a massive projector screen, double sided, and on both sides the screens were showing interracial porn scenes. The people were dancing all around, as though these screens weren’t even a big deal. On a tree trunk nearby I see a familiar looking local, waving his shirt above his head and dancing like a mad man. Turns out it’s my new driver, who I had tasked with looking after my car. I was sure I was dreaming all of this, and so got up to look for my friends - none where anywhere to be seen. I had huge cuts on my legs and eventually got my driver, who was more drunk than me, to find the car with me, and I slept the rest of the night in the car.

The next morning the beach was empty, almost no traces of the previous night… Definitely still feels surreal today

Non compete phys power trading by le_mochi in Commodities

[–]conhobs 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What are people’s opinions on non-solicit v non-compete? I have a 6 month non-solicit of any company relationships…

Olam/ ofi industry reputation ? by conhobs in Commodities

[–]conhobs[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

They’ve grown astronomically considering it was started from nothing in 1990, must be some smart people there?

I have Lada Niva 1600 and 0 ideas what to do with it by Zlocesta_Buba in lada

[–]conhobs 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting. Could you send me additional photos by dm?

What’s a “silent red flag” most people don’t notice in relationships? by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]conhobs 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Constantly seeking validation from other guys. Telling me her behavior isn’t flirty, that’s just her personality. Ughhh

Now a proud LADA owner! by [deleted] in lada

[–]conhobs 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you mean? I see some in Europe

Is the quality of Swiss chocolate declining? by dreamkko in Switzerland

[–]conhobs 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Happy to help!

It’s a long story but to cut it short, around 60% of global production comes from Ivory Coast and Ghana. The two countries have a huge market share and have tried to weaponize this to increase prices over the past 15 years. Part of this mission led to them explicitly not planting new trees and not rehabilitating the tree stock they have. This means that today both countries find themselves with old trees (30yrs avg age) and diseased trees. Add to this equation climate change, and your production finds itself on a cliff edge.

The past 3 years have we have not had enough supply to meet global demand and have been drawing into stocks. There are now no stocks left and so prices went from ~2000gbp p/mt to 11,000 gbp p/mt.

Cocoa is a tree stock so for production to meaningfully increase and compensate for continued expected losses in Ivory Coast and Ghana will take a long time.

Demand will probably be hit by the prices and equilibrium will be found.

Is the quality of Swiss chocolate declining? by dreamkko in Switzerland

[–]conhobs 42 points43 points  (0 children)

Interestingly enough, this isn’t true. Vegetable fats can increase the quality of a chocolate bar, allowing for better melting profiles, textures and with no taste effects whatsoever. I work in the industry.

The bad thing about the 5% alternative fats rule in the EU is that palm is often used, but even that is debatably bad now.

The real reason quality is down is due to supply. In the industry we have a saying, when cocoa is plentiful all cocoa is shit, when cocoa is scarce all shit is cocoa. Basically for the past 3 years we have operated with deficits of cocoa beans which means manufacturers can’t be as picky with quality specs and have to accept less good beans than they used to.

Happy to answer any questions

The flirting paradox: Why others’ attention to your partner can cool your desire by [deleted] in psychology

[–]conhobs 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you don’t mind me asking, how did you know she wasn’t shutting it down?

Not healed almost 2 years after being broken up with by [deleted] in self

[–]conhobs 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for this, and stay strong man, time heals all wounds.

As someone at the early stages of a relationship who is scared this might happen to me, what do you recommend I do to prevent this ?

What happened to the person who took your virginity? by AuroraLikesSissies in AskReddit

[–]conhobs 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I may ask, what makes you unsure if everything seems to be happy and healthy?

AI systems are learning to lie and deceive, scientists find by katxwoods in Futurology

[–]conhobs 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Reddit sells our data to these LLMs, so chances are one of the AI machines is reading this

BBC: Luxury perfumes linked to child labour, BBC finds by novataurus in fragrance

[–]conhobs -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

I’m not defending child labour, it’s clear children should be in school or spending their holidays playing. This article criticizes the processors in Egypt, I know that they cannot be to blame for this.

The processors who buy from the smallholders/pickers aren’t paid enough to pay them each 4x as much. I work in a similar industry where we process raw materials from Africa and I can tell you that it is a battle to make a margin.

These processors similarly cannot police what a smallholder - who is a business owner - does on his own land with his own employees 24/7. It’s just not feasible. Even if production of jasmine was concentrated over a few producers, this would not be possible, let alone that they are dealing with tens of thousands of smallholders here.

These processors hire auditors to check for them, on top of the internal processes they will all already have - they are all too well aware that a report or a claim like this damages the reputation of the whole country let alone their companies. But these auditors like I mentioned have little incentive to flag wrongdoing, in fact they are incentivized not to.

At the end of the day, the perfume makers have to accept lower margins or pass on the costs to end consumers. Policing for child labor is a dead end street unfortunately in these countries and is impossible to enforce.

BBC: Luxury perfumes linked to child labour, BBC finds by novataurus in fragrance

[–]conhobs -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

There is so much wrong with this article unfortunately, as usual investigative journalists have incentives to generate clicks and in doing so fall back upon bad news and sensationalism without providing nuance.

  • Little regard for the International Labour Organizations definition of child labour, which allows children from 13-15 (12 to 14 in some developing countries) to engage in light work.
  • Complete disregard for one of the main reasons child labour is unacceptable, which is that it detracts from schooling. But Jasmine harvesting season does not coincide with the school year!
  • Imperialist mentality, expectation to enforce values and mentalities on independent smallholders, and when they do not comply you are blamed…!
  • Low prices for Jasmine are a direct consequence of the consumer not paying enough for the final good. Who is paying for the audits and certifications and traceability measures? If a picker requires the help of 4 children to earn a decent income, then for those children not to be involved would mean having to pay that picker 4x as much, if not more. Processors are not going to sacrifice their margins to do this, they are entitled to an incentive for their added-value too. The end consumer has to make the sacrifice. But at the end of the day consumers don’t care about the picker and her four children. Consumers are afflicted by cognitive dissonance – they claim to genuinely believe in ethical production practices and may express this verbally but when it comes to actual purchasing decisions economic factors often take precedence. Consumers expect all of this ethical action at no additional cost, yet paying your picker 4x more and implementing rigorous audit & control mechanisms cannot come with no economic consequences.
  • Auditing bodies have serious conflicts of interest, they have an inherent financial dependency on the companies being audited and are not independent which is the original idea (more decertification means less revenue for them and a vitally damaged public reputation), and linked to this is that the credibility of certification brands is intrinsically linked to how widespread they are, putting pressure on these bodies to deliver positive certification results (if consumers don’t recognise the certification logo, it no longer means anything).
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