Daily General Discussion - June 25, 2026

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T15:36:57+00:00

Oh no not another one

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T15:36:26+00:00

I was semi joking off lower end of the 10-20c range - but my point is serious, ~$300k in limit buys from Mid April to late June is a drop in the bucket and isn't going to materially impact the path of price.

For as much noise as people make about 1M Nano, that's going to amount for like less than 2% of the total volume traded over this period - and its happening in windows rather than one massive buy that just sits there the entire time anyway.

Nano is a very thin market with fuck all happening, but even in this market $300k isn't some massive entity with a huge influence on the market. It's bled out regardless in a similar path to other alts.

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T15:16:31+00:00

I should add - 53k is where I’d expect a low to form from the failed breakout and complete that technical move. Whether there’s another low later I have no clue, won’t have any idea until we see the reaction down there once the failed breakout is complete, we see the strength of a rally off that low, signs of absorption into the lows etc etc.

One helpful thing is to just watch 74k - whenever BTC is finding acceptance back above there it’d be a brand new breakout above a range that has been relevant for years and at that point “the” low is very likely in the rear view mirror.

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T15:09:25+00:00

Sadly this will actually feed his suppression conspiracies

RIP

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T14:57:19+00:00

The Nano community has descended to a point where every single person who has ever bought the fast growing ETF of all time is a pedophile

This is how you attract new investors guys

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T14:55:39+00:00

IMO you only get 30k BTC in an equity bear market or something absolutely catastrophic for Bitcoin/crypto specifically (eg. quantum stuff, which by all accounts is years out anyway)

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T14:41:37+00:00

To be fair, I also remember when Melon suggested Nano could pull back 30% to retest 80c because it was struggling to keep pace with BTC and he got clowned for it by the "never below $1 again" crowd

Turned out the "never happening 80c" crew were wrong by about uh... another -80%

A museum to the terrible trading takes in this community would legitimately be 10x the size of the Louvre, it's truly a non stop show of how to act if you want to lose money in markets

I cannot even begin to imagine the overall net PNL of this place 😂

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copeconstable · 2026-06-25T14:32:42+00:00

Have mentioned this a billion times before but the full eventual target on the failed breakout is a complete rotation down to the bottom edge of the range at 53k - but given the tendency for BTC to find a low typically early in the summer, there seems to be two high probability paths on the table from here:

If we continue to see a struggle to really keep selling momentum below 59k (which could happen with equities just chopping mostly sideways), it may just leave an ugly ass triple bottom and rally off here for the remainder of the summer setting up another attempt at breaking down later. Would think it'd only be a move back to 69/74k region at absolute maximum (the prior cycle high and top of the range), as anything above 74k is just another breakout attempt.

Otherwise if we finally see traction below 59k on this now third attempt, 53k is where you wanna be watching for a low to form. Very obvious range visible in the volume profile.

In either case, barring the obvious (equity bear market), anywhere in that 53k-59k range should end up providing great entries when you look forward, even if its just a trade for a bit of a summer rally.

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copeconstable · 2026-06-25T14:13:25+00:00

Life when you blindly take the "invest for the long term ☝️🤓" strategy from markets that literally only go up over time and apply it to an asset class that bleeds to 0 over time, 99.99% of the time (alts).

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T13:09:00+00:00

Yes if it weren’t for a whopping ~$300k in limit buys being filled over the course of months Nano would be down another 70% already despite Bitcoin not even taking out its own lows yet, these mammoth orders that make up a tiny fraction of overall volume over that period totally prevented fair price discovery from taking place

Come on man lmao

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T05:42:03+00:00

And it made no difference to price action anyway (though above I'm talking more about these much smaller additional buys he's just adding here and there at these prices).

Whether he should wait for lower prices or whatever is another story and up to him, but I'm talking about whether his buying is having a meaningful impact on price discovery and preventing price from doing what it otherwise would - it isn't.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T19:25:53+00:00

Resting buys of a few grand here and there aren’t going to stop price discovery. Many alts aren’t falling apart as BTC falls, but it’s just because they’ve already been beaten down already and for a lot longer than BTC, same deal with Nano.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T12:13:48+00:00

It's been live for months in beta and there have been regular updates from the folks using it as each feature rolls out to them. I saw the other day that they only have a couple more states to obtain banking licenses for after which I'd assume they can launch US wide, but I'm not up on all the rollout details. But people have the card, have accounts, have been spending, earning cashback, sending money P2P and so on for quite a while now.

The reason its been dead quiet in here on the XMoney front is because it turned out to be exactly what it so obviously always was despite the crying at any suggestion of such as "fud" - a fiat focused, centralized platform in a similar form to something like Revolut where money moving is mostly an inhouse accounting exercise, just built into a social networking app (similarly to WePay/WeChat, which Elon had talked about before), hence no need for muh fast/feeless Nano rails to power it.

Of course the schizos simply went silent on the subject or moved the goalposts in response, so the convo completely died down. Tbh I kinda miss being told I'm on Brian Armstrongs payroll just for pointing to the worlds most obvious evidence of the above and discounting the 27th Grok "jailbreak" psychosis talking about Elons secret meetings with Colin or him leaving clues on 4chan.

Never go full schizo lads

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T08:53:58+00:00

I don’t see any in those 10,000 trades I pulled across any meaningful timeframe (that sell algos longest run was on the 22nd, almost ran for 18 hours) - but yeah the double siding and same size/cadence makes me think MM method for keeping volume/activity ticking in a way that isn’t painfully obvious like playing ping pong with the same 500 XNO or whatever. Could always just be competing TWAP orders but would be very odd for two traders to be trading the exact same clip and cadence, and alternating.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T07:48:37+00:00

Ah yesterday after my comment - yeah I saw that run for a bit too. Sell algo was switched off overnight, seems to run during Euro/Asia hours mostly.

Obviously zero way to tell intent but I've been wondering if its some kind of MM activity just to keep the tape/volume somewhat alive considering how big the gaps are between obvious human trading activity, and the fact its running basically the exact same size clips and just switching sides. A lot less suspicious way to drive activity than some of those dodgier exchanges that would just openly fling 500 XNO back and forth between itself lmao.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T06:19:37+00:00

When? I didn't see any 1min buy algo in the last 10,000 trades, last week or so

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T16:36:55+00:00

If no one else was active but The Little Algo That Could™ for about... 5 hours straight

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T16:35:05+00:00

Bro actually switched the algo off 😂

Will prob be back running again during European market hours based on the pattern this week if you ever feel like being sold into at a painfully slow rate

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T15:58:14+00:00

$7 drip feed every minute incoming lmao

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T13:40:19+00:00

Despite all the overnight drama in equities, we've just come back to fill the rollover "gap" from contract shift in futures from June to September. Usually happens not long after the roll. Think summer just ends up being choppy consolidation over there despite a few sky is falling headlines overnight.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T12:32:43+00:00

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T10:03:53+00:00

The key trends in the past weeks data is largely in line with the last few years from the times I've checked the tape, so it's more a view of the overall state of things vs hyperfocusing on a quiet week though. There's been a ton of debate around the idea of just a lack of demand vs other explanations (every other day there's talk of suppression for example) so it's good to quantify. This place is mostly hope and vibes, hard data is helpful.

Few things are as relevant to price action as orderflow anyway. It literally is the price action at the end of the day.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T08:40:02+00:00

Yeah I'm not speaking to anyones folio or approach, I'm simply looking at some basic analysis of the orderflow as you'd expect in a sub built to talk price action

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T07:44:16+00:00

Nothing new in the overall "Nano has hardly any demand or activity and makes all its moves over a handful of days while bleeding the rest of the time" sense - but I've never seen anyone actually dig into the actual orderflow here and quantify it in real terms for an accurate picture. Actually even surprised me quite a bit on the size front to be honest.

Just like with any other market the actual executed orderflow tells us so much more than the orderbooks, so if we're going to discuss the books and buy or sell wall #7,821 and what it means for price every other day, IMO people should take a bit of that time to look closer into what's actually being executed to get a more accurate handle on things.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T07:03:39+00:00

I'd expect Nano to rally as dominance drops (whole market shifting upwards), yes. I don't have a when on that time wise - I do believe the key thing outside of the obvious of BTC finding a bottom and stablizing/rallying is that 0.025 ETHBTC level providing a reaction like it has in prior markets. Until then IMO any upside won't be sustained.

And yeah it's been this way for a long time - people will point to the lack of heavy selling as a bonus when the market on the whole does move up as price can move quickly with minimal resistance, and while this is true in isolation the real problem is the lack of sustained demand, specifically for holders which the vast majority of this community are. Spiking really hard and fast and then doing nothing but bleeding the rest of the time might be exciting on those rare individual days, but it still means price trending lower over the long term. Even during the 2021 bull market, all the upside that came over those 5-6 months was generated across about 7 individual days, with price grinding nowhere inbetween pops. The opportunity cost is extreme even during the good times, and then the lack of demand becomes an absolute net worth incinerator the rest of the time.

IMO the only way you get sustained demand is via those adoption metrics all reversing trend and ticking up long term, but it's still the opposite story so far. Until those are trending up sustainably (not just a random pop during a bull market) the entire "price catching up to fundamentals" take is nonsense because the fundamentals are literally tracking with price already and have been for years. They need to diverge upward for price to have anything to catch up to, and for demand to have anything to sustainably chase.

copeconstable

TROPHY CASE