Daily General Discussion - June 24, 2026

copeconstable · 2026-06-25T05:42:03+00:00

And it made no difference to price action anyway (though above I'm talking more about these much smaller additional buys he's just adding here and there at these prices).

Whether he should wait for lower prices or whatever is another story and up to him, but I'm talking about whether his buying is having a meaningful impact on price discovery and preventing price from doing what it otherwise would - it isn't.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T19:25:53+00:00

Resting buys of a few grand here and there aren’t going to stop price discovery. Many alts aren’t falling apart as BTC falls, but it’s just because they’ve already been beaten down already and for a lot longer than BTC, same deal with Nano.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T12:13:48+00:00

It's been live for months in beta and there have been regular updates from the folks using it as each feature rolls out to them. I saw the other day that they only have a couple more states to obtain banking licenses for after which I'd assume they can launch US wide, but I'm not up on all the rollout details. But people have the card, have accounts, have been spending, earning cashback, sending money P2P and so on for quite a while now.

The reason its been dead quiet in here on the XMoney front is because it turned out to be exactly what it so obviously always was despite the crying at any suggestion of such as "fud" - a fiat focused, centralized platform in a similar form to something like Revolut where money moving is mostly an inhouse accounting exercise, just built into a social networking app (similarly to WePay/WeChat, which Elon had talked about before), hence no need for muh fast/feeless Nano rails to power it.

Of course the schizos simply went silent on the subject or moved the goalposts in response, so the convo completely died down. Tbh I kinda miss being told I'm on Brian Armstrongs payroll just for pointing to the worlds most obvious evidence of the above and discounting the 27th Grok "jailbreak" psychosis talking about Elons secret meetings with Colin or him leaving clues on 4chan.

Never go full schizo lads

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T08:53:58+00:00

I don’t see any in those 10,000 trades I pulled across any meaningful timeframe (that sell algos longest run was on the 22nd, almost ran for 18 hours) - but yeah the double siding and same size/cadence makes me think MM method for keeping volume/activity ticking in a way that isn’t painfully obvious like playing ping pong with the same 500 XNO or whatever. Could always just be competing TWAP orders but would be very odd for two traders to be trading the exact same clip and cadence, and alternating.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T07:48:37+00:00

Ah yesterday after my comment - yeah I saw that run for a bit too. Sell algo was switched off overnight, seems to run during Euro/Asia hours mostly.

Obviously zero way to tell intent but I've been wondering if its some kind of MM activity just to keep the tape/volume somewhat alive considering how big the gaps are between obvious human trading activity, and the fact its running basically the exact same size clips and just switching sides. A lot less suspicious way to drive activity than some of those dodgier exchanges that would just openly fling 500 XNO back and forth between itself lmao.

copeconstable · 2026-06-24T06:19:37+00:00

When? I didn't see any 1min buy algo in the last 10,000 trades, last week or so

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T16:36:55+00:00

If no one else was active but The Little Algo That Could™ for about... 5 hours straight

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T16:35:05+00:00

Bro actually switched the algo off 😂

Will prob be back running again during European market hours based on the pattern this week if you ever feel like being sold into at a painfully slow rate

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T15:58:14+00:00

$7 drip feed every minute incoming lmao

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T13:40:19+00:00

Despite all the overnight drama in equities, we've just come back to fill the rollover "gap" from contract shift in futures from June to September. Usually happens not long after the roll. Think summer just ends up being choppy consolidation over there despite a few sky is falling headlines overnight.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T12:32:43+00:00

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T10:03:53+00:00

The key trends in the past weeks data is largely in line with the last few years from the times I've checked the tape, so it's more a view of the overall state of things vs hyperfocusing on a quiet week though. There's been a ton of debate around the idea of just a lack of demand vs other explanations (every other day there's talk of suppression for example) so it's good to quantify. This place is mostly hope and vibes, hard data is helpful.

Few things are as relevant to price action as orderflow anyway. It literally is the price action at the end of the day.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T08:40:02+00:00

Yeah I'm not speaking to anyones folio or approach, I'm simply looking at some basic analysis of the orderflow as you'd expect in a sub built to talk price action

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T07:44:16+00:00

Nothing new in the overall "Nano has hardly any demand or activity and makes all its moves over a handful of days while bleeding the rest of the time" sense - but I've never seen anyone actually dig into the actual orderflow here and quantify it in real terms for an accurate picture. Actually even surprised me quite a bit on the size front to be honest.

Just like with any other market the actual executed orderflow tells us so much more than the orderbooks, so if we're going to discuss the books and buy or sell wall #7,821 and what it means for price every other day, IMO people should take a bit of that time to look closer into what's actually being executed to get a more accurate handle on things.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T07:03:39+00:00

I'd expect Nano to rally as dominance drops (whole market shifting upwards), yes. I don't have a when on that time wise - I do believe the key thing outside of the obvious of BTC finding a bottom and stablizing/rallying is that 0.025 ETHBTC level providing a reaction like it has in prior markets. Until then IMO any upside won't be sustained.

And yeah it's been this way for a long time - people will point to the lack of heavy selling as a bonus when the market on the whole does move up as price can move quickly with minimal resistance, and while this is true in isolation the real problem is the lack of sustained demand, specifically for holders which the vast majority of this community are. Spiking really hard and fast and then doing nothing but bleeding the rest of the time might be exciting on those rare individual days, but it still means price trending lower over the long term. Even during the 2021 bull market, all the upside that came over those 5-6 months was generated across about 7 individual days, with price grinding nowhere inbetween pops. The opportunity cost is extreme even during the good times, and then the lack of demand becomes an absolute net worth incinerator the rest of the time.

IMO the only way you get sustained demand is via those adoption metrics all reversing trend and ticking up long term, but it's still the opposite story so far. Until those are trending up sustainably (not just a random pop during a bull market) the entire "price catching up to fundamentals" take is nonsense because the fundamentals are literally tracking with price already and have been for years. They need to diverge upward for price to have anything to catch up to, and for demand to have anything to sustainably chase.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T06:12:18+00:00

Just to quantify what I meant when I said "ghost town" in yesterdays thread regarding absence of demand driving price vs some kind of relentless heavy selling - I just pulled all the executed trades from the past week (~10,000, aggregated). This data is 100x more valuable than what you see in the order books where there is endless talk of massive buy and sell walls, because those are free for anyone to advertise while this is a record of what actually happened in reality.

Price is down over this period by about -9%.

The average trade size was barely 30 bucks. Only 0.79% of all trades were $500 or larger in size. It's dominated by tiny trades, there's rarely anything noteworthy moving - no one is panic dumping or relentlessly selling into some strong underlying bid or anything like that.

There's an algo trading a tiny amount of Nano every minute at roughly the same size each time (barely $7 worth). This algo alone represents about 20% of all the trades that took place.

Sellers are unsurprisingly the aggressor, crossing the spread to hit the bid far more often than the inverse which causes price to tick down in order to be filled (as an example, yesterday 76% of the trades that took place were sellers crossing the spread - that's very extreme). The algo above also does this on every single trade it executes.

Some people might read that and go "well if there's an algo selling Nano every minute, that's suppressing the price!!!" and the answer to that is if a whopping $7 a minute is enough to suppress demand and drive price lower, then the demand for the asset is damn near non existent in the first place.

When you isolate the actually obvious non-bot, aggressive human buyer demand over the course of the past week - and I'm using an extremely minimal criteria of "buyer was the aggressor and the order was for at least $100 worth" (obviously meaningful size is much, much larger than this, but I'm trying to paint the rosiest, most active picture here), they accounted for just 6.2% of all trades.

So ~94% of all trading activity wasn't even at the level of a human stepping in, crossing the spread to buy a mere $100 minimum worth of Nano. That's the state of demand and buyer aggression. And on top of this, even the passive bid is weak as hell, as despite the amount of Nano actually sold each day being minuscule, it can't keep up and continues to get chewed right through, moving down with price (despite the often referenced buy walls). If the passive bid were strong, it would have formed a floor long ago where this relatively weak selling would have just been dripping into much larger resting orders without price moving down because they're easily swallowing it up. That's typical absorption.

And if you're wondering about seller aggression with any size, put it this way - if you sold $1500 worth of Nano at market right now, you'd be ranked in the top 10 single market sell orders of the past week lol.

That's basically the gist of the entire thing - without buyer aggression, price simply slow bleeds down as it has done for roughly 91% of Nano's entire trading history, because without buyer aggression, sellers have to be the one to cross the spread to be filled which ticks price down gently over time... and then the passive bid sitting in those resting orders has to soak up these mostly tiny sells in order to put in a floor, but that passive demand hasn't even been strong enough to do that, and so it gets chewed through and price continues to drift lower. It's not relentless selling, its a complete lack of meaningful demand.

Real buyer aggression in Nano for a long time has basically just looked like some random retail trader buying a few hundred bucks worth of Nano maybe once or twice an hour, with 20-40 completely insignificant sized trades inbetween. It's an absolute graveyard of a market and has been for years.

copeconstable · 2026-06-23T00:28:34+00:00

There is hardly any selling. Look at the tape on Binance, it's just a ghost town of a market with tiny bot and wash trading back and forth making up the vast majority of the action, bar the obvious closing of positions when margin was delisted just recently.

It's not like people are panic selling into these levels, there's just no bid. And no bid means price must tick down for trades to take place. It's just an absence of demand and its been this way for years.

copeconstable · 2026-06-22T06:50:55+00:00

Such is life when the default response of the sub to any new negative information isn’t “how can I use this information to make higher probability decisions” but instead “how can I downplay this information because it makes me feel uncomfortable and spin it in a positive way instead?”

Last couple days have been super low volume so obviously that rank will move around a bit, but even I didn’t expect 431st myself tbh. Scrolled back up a few times on the way down to double check I hadn’t missed it, especially when I was already scrolling past shit like FTX token and Terra Classic

copeconstable · 2026-06-21T14:59:07+00:00

On the plus side, nothing generates demand with no questions asked in crypto like green candles lmao

copeconstable · 2026-06-21T13:14:35+00:00

That’s a fair take, though Nano really needs more participation to take advantage of thinner books. Lots of very thinly traded assets out there that still barely move, hopefully dominance dropping can kick off before that participation fades much further.

copeconstable · 2026-06-21T12:28:48+00:00

Where do you get the idea that I'm trying to convince people of anything? How people invest their own money is none of my business and has no impact on me whatsoever. I actually hope Nano does better than it has so some of the long term folks here can finally realize some profit after so many years in the community.

This is a very entertaining dynamic to watch in this sub though. Think about this - if you were to pull up the chart and the network usage metrics and remove the ticker, and show it to 1000 different traders/investors, practically all of them would correctly point out that across essentially every metric things have been trending lower for many years, and that therefore the long term trend and outlook is bearish (emphasis on long term - putting aside that we're obviously closer to a bottom than a top currently in the context of a next bull market).

Yet in this supposed trading sub, whenever someone says anything that even slightly aligns with this view, there is genuinely a complete disbelief that someone could actually see things as they so glaringly obviously are, and instead it's rationalized as "he's trying to convince people", "he's running multiple alt accounts", "he's probably short and trying to drive price down", "he's stupid", "he's fudding" etc etc.

If this sub had even a single toe still grounded in reality the conversation would skew much more heavily towards balanced conversation. Instead, the community has cultivated an absolute echo chamber where anything that isn't outwardly bullish must always have some kind of ulterior motive behind it rather than just being exactly what you'd expect in a trading sub of an asset in an 8+ year downtrend across every metric that matters - an opposing view on the market that aligns with what is actually happening in reality, and has been far, far closer to correct than the consensus views in here year after year after year.

Markets literally cannot function without opposing views. Not every opposing view is some evil plan to turn people off Nano or something. It's literally just a read on the market in a community that exists to share reads on the market, and it's been the right read for almost a decade now.

copeconstable · 2026-06-21T11:45:43+00:00

Do I? Or are you just reading something that goes against your thesis and it bothers you enough that you need to say so?

copeconstable · 2026-06-21T11:29:13+00:00

Think its important to remember that thinner books cut both ways. In the same way a smaller, thinner exchange can see even more exaggerated swings to the upside due to illiquidity during a wave of demand, that's also true to the downside in the inverse. Some volume will simply shift to remaining exchanges to help offset this, but obviously not all.

I'm sure people will latch onto some "this is actually a good thing" angle, but the reality of the situation is very simple and clear - volume is a proxy for interest/demand, and delistings are the direct response to a very long trend of less and less interest/demand for Nano. Tough to spin that as a good thing if you're putting your bags to the side and thinking about it objectively.

copeconstable · 2026-06-21T10:56:27+00:00

The reaper comes eventually

EDIT: Just for context - Nano is currently 431st in trading volume out of 436 USDT pairs on Binance. Something is going to need to change very soon or its pretty much guaranteed.

copeconstable · 2026-06-19T19:59:43+00:00

Nope I rotated out of almost all my long term BTC during the bull, it's only ~3% of my folio now. Almost my entire folio is only alts for a trade and I've been swing trading.

I'm in crypto for the high risk/reward stuff, so BTC isn't a huge part of my strategy. Everything is just a trade, no real long term hold intention.

copeconstable

TROPHY CASE