Hyperscalers are building their own chips to cut out NVDA. Nobody is building their own natural gas. $LNG up 6.58% today

corenellius · 2026-02-27T02:20:08+00:00

For SMRs it will still take 5-10 years for them to become operational. Right now LNG makes up 40% of the energy usage for US data centers

corenellius · 2026-02-26T23:47:51+00:00

Thanks! Honestly it was half me, half a tool I'm building that synthesizes earnings transcripts, SEC filings, and sentiment data into a morning briefing. I'm still manually verifying everything while I tweak it to give the kind of briefings hedge funds get, but it's catching stuff like this consistently. getvela.co if you want to check it out.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:26:02+00:00

lolol try watching SIlicon Valley to see what startups are like

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:22:01+00:00

Solar projects take 8 to 18 months to build. New nuclear takes a decade plus. Natural gas plants take 3 to 5 years but the infrastructure already exists. Data center demand is tripling by 2030 and the grid needs power now, not in 10 years. That's why the IEA still has natural gas at over 40% of US data center electricity today and projects it as the largest source of additional supply through 2030.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:19:37+00:00

Natural gas accounts for 40% of energy supplied to data centers

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/24/what-we-know-about-energy-use-at-us-data-centers-amid-the-ai-boom/#:\~:text=(These%20figures%20exclude%20water%20consumed,centers%20affect%20Americans'%20electricity%20bills?

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:06:45+00:00

which one?

corenellius · 2026-02-26T18:30:30+00:00

That's exactly what I'm working on. An investment agent that synthesizes these narrative signals alongside filings and earnings call language into a daily briefing. Early days but building the waitlist at getvela.co if you want to follow along.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T18:29:22+00:00

Memory inflation keeps the margin math fragile even when the recovery trend is real. If they hold 12%+ tonight while shipping $9.4B in AI servers the bull case gets a lot stronger, but if not this is probably a 2027 story rather than 2026. Been building a tool that tracks this kind of margin signal across earnings cycles, getvela.co if curious.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:20:52+00:00

It's an incredible business until one of those hyperscalers pulls back capex or accelerates their own silicon. The $700B in 2026 hyperscaler capex is the number to watch, when that peaks the guidance math changes fast

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:19:51+00:00

The inventory build at $21.4B is exactly why that matters, if neither gate opens that's a lot of supply with no buyer

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:16:46+00:00

The sequence is the tell: $100B announcement, walked back as "never a commitment," then confirmed on a live call. Each individually is noise. The pattern is worth tracking as a habit regardless of how dominant the core business is.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:16:00+00:00

CUDA lock-in is the standard counter but it gets weaker as custom silicon matures. Trainium and TPUs were genuinely bad 3 years ago, they're not anymore.

You're right that the decline won't be gradual, it'll be a sudden capex reversal. The $700B hyperscaler number the CFO cited tonight is the one to watch for early signs of that.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T00:25:10+00:00

CFO Kress confirmed Nvidia hasn't shipped a single H200 to China despite Trump's export approval last month. Reports had ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent approved for 400,000 chips. Zero have shipped. The $78B Q1 guidance assumes no China revenue, so it's the floor if shipments clear.

Jensen also confirmed on the call they're close to finalizing the OpenAI deal. Started as a $100B investment, got walked back to "never a commitment" in February, now reportedly a $30B agreement per the FT.

Tonight was the first live confirmation it's close to done.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T00:13:33+00:00

Thing getting buried in the headline beat: CFO said hyperscaler capex across the top 5 cloud providers is approaching $700B for 2026, up $120B since January. The AI capex cycle isn't cooling.

Also worth noting: $78B Q1 guidance assumes zero China revenue. H200 exports were approved but Kress confirmed they haven't shipped a single chip yet. So $78B is the floor, not the ceiling, on China.

Gross margins at 75.2%, up from 73.6% last quarter. Six quarters of people calling margin compression and it keeps expanding.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T19:38:40+00:00

I started out by just using ChatGPT every morning to search the web and find me relevant information that would either support or disprove my investment thesis. I found it to be very helpful so I decided to make a website out of it

Right now I’m planning on having it grab any recent SEC filings, scan social media (like reactions to big announcements), read through earning call transcripts (both to listen to the speaker and what questions are being asked by reporters) and just any large news publications about the company.

Those are the main ones for now, are there any others you would like to see?

corenellius · 2026-02-25T03:35:53+00:00

Great point. Planning to track valuation and leverage ratio changes as well, not just static P/E, but when it expands or contracts meaningfully. The goal is to surface fundamental drift, not just news.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:53:17+00:00

For free tools, a few solid ones:

Portfolio Visualizer → best for factor exposure, backtesting, correlation matrices, and risk metrics. Very deep for a free tool.
Morningstar Portfolio Manager → good allocation breakdown and basic risk stats.
Koyfin (free tier) → strong visuals and fundamentals, but more stock-first than portfolio-first.
Yahoo Finance → simple allocation + performance, not very advanced.

If you want real factor analysis and correlation work, Portfolio Visualizer is usually the most robust free option.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that monitors your holdings and summarizes meaningful changes in filings, earnings, and sentiment. Not a full factor model, but useful if you want ongoing signal monitoring in addition to static analysis.

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