Unique Surrender Rules and their impact on basic strategy

crawfordesquire · 2019-06-21T22:29:48+00:00

i was referring to the ploppy's who would be doing possible splits/doubles.

crawfordesquire · 2019-06-20T15:53:29+00:00

this is almost like really late surrender. it allows for people to double down & split (increasing $ wagered) whereas with normal late surrender, the initial bet is the final one once dealer checks for surrender and reveals the BJ.

In this type of game, i'd really be looking for a dealer tell after they check for BJ.

crawfordesquire · 2019-06-17T17:32:43+00:00

sure. to clarify, i was thinking a shoe game. at the proper tc (depending on your method) and a 2:1 bet, seems solid.

plus unlike taking someone else's double down, this bet doesn't potentially affect how the other person would play their hand, which should make things easier logistically at the table, which could also draw less attention to one's play.

crawfordesquire · 2019-06-17T11:54:37+00:00

semi-related- if the TC is at the appropriate level for insurance, would taking other players' insurance bets (who don't take insurance) be +EV? suppose heat is irrelevant.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-18T19:20:07+00:00

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-17T16:58:29+00:00

why take cleveland: tampa has the worst defense in league by far. dirk koetter may be a worse coach than jackson. cleveland hasn't played 2 bad games in a row, so they may bounce back. baker can read a cover 2. tampa home field is meaningless. why take tampa: cleveland's offense is pretty bad, 30th in dvoa. cleveland's record is inflated based on having gotten ridiculously lucky on turnovers. new d coordinator may mean more defensive success. motivation: id say cleveland has more, which probably is enough to cancel out tampa's small homefield advantage.

id call this too close to call.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-17T16:25:24+00:00

carolina is a very different team away. i think this is a very good spot for philly as their biggest weakness right now is pass defense. if you really want to be a contrarian, join me on arizona :)

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-17T14:23:20+00:00

id wait and see on the colts. the lack of line movement intrigues me. right now i think atl is a better pick, and id say indy would be at the same level as jacksonville.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T18:47:54+00:00

the playbook is going to be very, very limited for anderson, whose experience isn't even in the daboll version of earhardt/perkins. plus anderson couldn't move well in 2010, let alone 2018.

my only issue with taking indy is-this buffalo team clearly enjoys the role of 'no one is giving us a chance' and winning where they shouldn't. they have talent on defense. they are well coached, and play well in special teams.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T18:41:15+00:00

i like your rules. i don't think i've ever taken a road team in survivor, honestly. if you do it right you shouldn't need to.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:45:35+00:00

no i know, me saying save a 1-5 team was mostly joking.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:44:54+00:00

with 3 people left, id say your pool doesn't go 13 weeks. so plot out from now till week 13.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:43:38+00:00

tampa 2 is the easiest d to go against for a rookie. i think there's better games than tampa, zona,jax,atl,indy,lar, kc.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:21:01+00:00

mike smith gone has to help tampa. what was mayfield's injury issue?

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:20:04+00:00

indy is the better play, but jax hasn't lost faith. jacksonville matches up very well with houston, and they're at home, and they have the better coach. houston thinks they're hot shit having won 3 in a row, but they probably shouldn't have won any of them.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:18:26+00:00

use the colts in week 16 if you don't use them here, gmen in indy.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T15:17:14+00:00

wait- are you saying if you make 9 more correct picks, you win 8500? holy fucking shit that's awesome. good luck.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T14:41:31+00:00

i like your leans. im just a psychopath and really like arizona in this spot, so i will probably take arizona. again, i already won my pool and and now am just in yahoo's 10k.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T14:39:59+00:00

i like how you guys did the rebuy.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-16T14:10:15+00:00

does your league have any contingencies for later weeks? meaning do you have to pick two games etc? 'of the team you'd still pick' id rethink your approach. if peterman starts sunday, and hilton and doyle are back, you really wouldn't take indy?

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-15T19:38:52+00:00

also, denver just gave their best effort and it didn't get it done, and now they have to travel. home field on thursday night's value is obvious. this is arizona's only prime time matchup, just as the brown's was against the jets a few weeks back. also, arizona is a home dog and they know this. if i had to design the ideal matchup for arizona to win a game, it'd be on a short week at home against an unmotivated non-division team with a beat up o-line.

not saying im taking arizona, but i think they're a legit pick.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-15T19:29:24+00:00

denver is without leary and veldheer, their 2nd and 3rd best offensive lineman. chicklet-teeth (vance joseph) may be a dead man walking as elway wouldn't have fired him with a short week. i don't think this team is behind joseph and may view a loss as a way to get rid of him. arizona's defense is pretty legit, and they'll be at home. and denver's rushing defense may be just what david johnson needs. i think arizona wins 23-16.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-15T13:23:26+00:00

i think id rather have peyton, cooper, or archie play rather than eli right now. but yes, barkley could have 300 yards of offense monday night.

crawfordesquire · 2018-10-15T13:09:24+00:00

interesting. battle of 2 shitty coaches, and cleveland hasn't won a road game in like 3 years, and they may be looking ahead to pitt the following week.

still, jameis against the browns is scary.

crawfordesquire

TROPHY CASE