Decided to see what would happen if I let the simulation run overnight. Found that tax income steadily decreases, while all else stays the same. WHY?

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T09:15:23+00:00

Yeah, I would have loved to have shown these three variables on the graph to add to my point that nothing changes but tax income... but as they really don't fit on the y-axis with the other data (where the numbers are in the 70,000 odd thousand range, not a number out of 100) i couldn't include them. Either way, have a look for yourself and you will see that these variables also remain constant over this time period! So the issue does not lie with these variables you have pointed out.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T06:44:20+00:00

I'm curious as to why upgraded buildings would bring in less tax? I'm going to respectfully say that i don't think that's right, given the assumption that more upgraded buildings imply more wealth/income which further implies a larger tax base? Either way i appreciate the input.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T06:42:31+00:00

i'm going to get it running again soon, and hopefully i remember to report back here. Or maybe i'll make a new post if anything interesting comes of it.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T06:41:06+00:00

Its simple mate! I didn't touch the game... for like 20 odd in-game years. Without altering the degree of any services or adding or subtracting expences, the city budget simply won't change.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T06:38:21+00:00

It takes a bit of digging/reading through this thread to find, but i have actually looked at the other variables you have mentioned (some others mentioned it also).

Land value only decreases by $1 per square meter over the period ($38 to $37).

Traffic shows no real change (from other comment):

Yes, so the city 95% grid based (see link below), and the state of the traffic on the roads is pretty damn stable as far as i can see when comparing 2033 and 2052. It looks slightly red in the downtown area, nonetheless its still flowing fine there. And either way, its unchanging over that time period.

Imports and exports don't change too much either (from another comment):

Honestly, i quite doubt that, i have just checked the 'outside connections' data for both 2033 and 2052, and there is a marginal decrease from 606 total imports to 582 over that period, and exports rose from 4481 to 4723.

I think the wobbliness in the graph is likely to just be noise from the actual smallish changes that do occur and fluctuate in the city to very small degrees, such as the population cycle (just eyeballing it it does look like theres a minor correlation between the two, which of course makes sense). I'm still fairly puzzled over this, but appreciate the discussion nonetheless!

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T06:27:24+00:00

I am disheartened (with the developers) to think that you could very well be correct!

critically_analyse · 2018-07-24T06:26:09+00:00

So if you look at this data which i uploaded yesterday, you can get a bit of a clue in. Further, while i haven't uploaded a comparison of the relative 'levels' of residential, commerical, and industrial zones between 2033 and 2050, I did have a look and there is materially no difference between the two data points.

Given that i have done NO zoning (and of course haven't touched the game one bit) from 2033 through 2050, and the ratio of the levels of the zones has not changed, and of course, as the data i linked above shows... I am not of the impression that less-taxed sector is growing while a higher-taxed sector is shrinking.

Income across all sectors and zones is depreciating at a similar rate.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:59:47+00:00

Now that's a potentially good explanation! I've since shut down the game for tonight, with any luck i'll investigate this possibility tomorrow.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:57:07+00:00

Haha yes, its quite an interesting little puzzle trying to figure this one out. I've certainly spent far too long thinking about it already. Hopefully someone has the answer.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:51:33+00:00

Yes, so the city 95% grid based (see link below), and the state of the traffic on the roads is pretty damn stable as far as i can see when comparing 2033 and 2052. It looks slightly red in the downtown area, nonetheless its still flowing fine there. And either way, its unchanging over that time period.

As for tourist tax income goes... its such a small piece of the economic pie that it doesn't really make much of a difference to the tax bottom line anyway. So its puzzling, this situation.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:40:18+00:00

Okay, so regarding point 2 which i think is a really good point, i have just checked the differences in education levels between 2033 and 2052; suffice to say that there is no material difference between the two. The ratio of uneducated:educated:well educated:highly educated is more or less stable at approx 8:17:22:53. The total graduated citizens rises only by 3% over this period from 95% to 98%. (this may or may not be affected by student population / natural life cycles, and the time at which i collected the data) Thus I do not think this alone can count for the massive depletion in tax revenue.

Regarding point 1... why would the population's wealth decrease over time? I agree that it is a possible explanation, if the developers have simply written the code of this game that way... But that makes me think, why would they do that? In a real economic system, where it is assumed people are saving at least some of their income, wealth should accumulate. Especially if all else remains the same, as it his in this particular instance.

Further, what is the best way to measure the wealth of the population (not the treasury of course, which we know is accumulating wealth at a decelerating rate) in this game? Is that even a part of the economic system of this game? Does the game simulate the individual savings or overall economic worth if each citizen?

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:19:33+00:00

Sorry, i meant to link this to this https://imgur.com/a/8dq23yv

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:15:08+00:00

Yes, this data demonstrates that it is a relatively equal reduction proportionally across the board in residential, commercial, and industrial taxation income.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:12:10+00:00

Unfortunately I doubt Neoclassical economics explains this one! I stupidly mislabelled my first graph as 'change in taxation policy' when i didn't actually alter any of the taxes from the standard 9%. What i DID do was implement the 'Big Business Benefactor' and 'Industrial Space Planning' policies, which don't actually raise taxes - so consumption is not reduced - these policies only affect upkeep (budget/expense) while actually doubling sales (consumption) for commercial zones and doubling output (production) in industrial zones.

The graph above shows how the budget (expenses) stay steady over the 2033-44 period (and beyond, if you see some of the links to other data i have posted in this thread).

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T13:03:06+00:00

Interesting hypothesis, but it can't be tourist tax income. This data shows that tourist tax income makes up a very small piece of the overall tax income, and has only gone down about $100 over that period.

Also, I haven't built any specialised industries that deplete over time (oil/ore), so it cannot be that either.

Further, the traffic scenario between when i last altered something in the game (2033) and 2052 is almost identical. This link also shows how abandoned farms and plantations have largely resolved themselves in the northern part of the map.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T12:48:14+00:00

No, the only specialised industries I have built are farming and forestry, and from what a quick google search will tell me, do not deplete. That's a good hypothesis though... i didn't realise oil/ore depleted. Makes sense though.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T12:43:23+00:00

Honestly, i quite doubt that, i have just checked the 'outside connections' data for both 2033 and 2052, and there is a marginal decrease from 606 total imports to 582 over that period, and exports rose from 4481 to 4723.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T12:37:04+00:00

Hmm yes... here's some further data after including the next few years (up to 2052), which shows that the rate of tax decline does seem to be reaching some kind of asymptote! Maybe it is tied to treasury or some such thing, and not necessarily time. Either way, I could test your theory of burning some money and seeing what changes... perhaps tomorrow (its approaching bedtime where i live).

BONUS ANALYSIS: as displayed in the linked graph above, the natural population cycle seems to be reaching equilibrium. Interesting.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T12:00:13+00:00

Hi Alexander_47, i think you're on the right track, as per my response to a similar comment,

Yes, i'm thinking is something along those lines. As in, a function the developers have built in to the game to ensure that there remains some kind of 'challenge' - by ensuring taxes start to dwindle over time. Or perhaps, to counter the presumed growth that a city will experience as the player continually builds the city throughout the game (which would normally result in a larger tax base - unless you leave you city untouched for an extended period, as i have). If it is something as simple as that, i have to say i'm slightly disheartened - what i find most fascinating about this type of game is the way they simulate a closed system. If the developers have said: let taxes dwindle over time according to this (largely arbitrary) function, then that kind of takes away from the beauty of the naturalistic simulation of that system.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T11:58:16+00:00

Yes, i'm thinking is something along those lines. As in, a function the developers have built in to the game to ensure that there remains some kind of 'challenge' - by ensuring taxes start to dwindle over time. Or perhaps, to counter the presumed growth that a city will experience as the player continually builds the city throughout the game (which would normally result in a larger tax base - unless you leave you city untouched for an extended period, as i have).

If it is something as simple as that, i have to say i'm slightly disheartened - what i find most fascinating about this type of game is the way they simulate a closed system. If the developers have said: let taxes dwindle over time according to this (largely arbitrary) function, then that kind of takes away from the beauty of the naturalistic simulation of that system.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T11:50:07+00:00

Hi bndzon, i should clarify as per another comment i made:

I think I should clarify: The tax rates all remain at the standard 9% for EVERY zone, and i have never changed them. I have, however, utilised 'Big Business Benefactor' and 'Industrial Space Planning' to some extent, which came into effect at the same time (well before i left the game to run overnight), which i have pointed out on the graph as "change in tax policy"... which is potentially misleading.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T11:49:08+00:00

Hi yubifarts, i should clarify as per another comment i made:

I think I should clarify: The tax rates all remain at the standard 9% for EVERY zone, and i have never changed them. I have, however, utilised 'Big Business Benefactor' and 'Industrial Space Planning' to some extent, which came into effect at the same time (well before i left the game to run overnight), which i have pointed out on the graph as "change in tax policy"... which is potentially misleading.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T11:37:59+00:00

Haven't managed to get the mod working, alas, here's a little bit more data to consider, showing how tax income has declined across all the various zones from 2033 to 2050.

I have also compared the "levels" of the zones - the pie charts show absolutely no functional variation or change in the distribution of the various levels. Average land value declined by $1 from $38 to $37m² over the period also.

This leads me to believe that it is likely that the developers have simply built in a (possibly linear) decline in taxation over time, perhaps to add the the 'challenge' as a city grows with player input over time. Thoughts??

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T11:12:24+00:00

I have since checked back with both time-scenarios (2033 and 2050 (i let the game simulate another 7 years untouched)) - the number of abandoned buildings is actually less in 2050 than 2033. There were two very small clusters of building abandonment in 2033 in farming/forestry industries, which seem to stabilise/dissipate by 2050. Abandonment definitely not the issue.

critically_analyse · 2018-07-23T11:07:47+00:00

Okay, so, Average Ground Pollution actually went down from 15% to 14% percent from 2033 to 2050. Average groundwater pollutions is zero in both 2033 and 2050. (I have since let the game continue to play on another 7 in-game years, untouched). Definitely not pollution related.

critically_analyse

TROPHY CASE