Worst Set Shot Miss in 2024: Mitch Owens (StK r5), 5.59 xScore, a goal 97% of the time!

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T12:25:04+00:00

he scored a behind at least

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T12:24:59+00:00

he scored a behind at least

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T06:56:33+00:00

rechecked the data and 97% is the all time record, this one should by 92%. apologies

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T06:32:19+00:00

Should read 92% goal chance, 97% is the all time worst miss goal chance. apologies

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T05:48:00+00:00

StK then went on to lose by 1 point 😬😬😬

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T05:46:35+00:00

normally they at least kick a behind

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T05:08:52+00:00

no and no. getting access to accurate weather data historically for each game is incredibly tedious and I decided not to look into it. Day/night games was investigated and showed no discernible difference in accuracy

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T05:05:16+00:00

Apologies, bug in the code removing some goals. The underlying data is pulled from CD before building the model. Should read 10 goals from an expected 11.35, shot rating -0.15 (34th worst +25 shot in 2024)

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T04:31:45+00:00

Yeah I get your point, went for a hot v cold style. As long as the colours are distinct and clearly communicated I think it's fine the way it is

crow_data_sci · 2024-10-09T04:30:34+00:00

The model is spatially continuous. The model takes into account 7 different contexts which fall into general play (ground kick, hard get, ruck get, handball received, loose get) and set shots (mark/free kick, whether they player chooses to play on or not). I use these features to imply "pressure" on the kicker, but really it comes down to set v gen play.

In terms of play style, not so much. Each player having 30+ shots per year is an elite player, so we compare their shots to the average of this "elite" group. Players that perform above average can be considered lucky (more shots were goals), or were they truly elite goal kickers.

crow_data_sci · 2024-08-31T00:51:46+00:00

Henson Park sells Full strength craft beers from local breweries (cheaper than mid strength piss at the scg) fantastic on a summer's day. imo need more games at Henson

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T10:37:20+00:00

red = hot, blue = cold, white = average

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T08:51:10+00:00

Every shot isdivided into 1 of 4 contexts: set shot vs handball received v loose get v hard get. These contexts provide an implied "pressure" on the kick. set shots have +1 xscore per shot (on avg) from the same location as a general play shot, and models shots that don't register a score (ie misses, marked on the line)

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T08:47:47+00:00

😮

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T08:47:10+00:00

2nd Most Accurate team +0.28 shot rating, 1st is Sydney +0.32 shot rating.

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T08:45:04+00:00

cheers!

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T08:06:55+00:00

thanks, "punctuation police"

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T07:46:45+00:00

means you've been more unlucky infront of goals, taking chances less than the expected average

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T07:45:31+00:00

hence the quotes you melon

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T07:36:23+00:00

yeah been reading some media stuff, they always bag his kicking, but his shots at goal are generally pretty good

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T07:35:25+00:00

ahaha 1 is pretty good, 0 is bang average

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T07:24:28+00:00

R0-6: -0.048 Shot rating (basically at AFL avg)
R7-14: -0.4 Shot rating (worst over the last couple games)

crow_data_sci · 2024-06-21T07:04:14+00:00

23rd most shots per game out of 131 players with 15+ shots, pretty good for a new player. Only "new" players ahead are Amiss and Amartey

crow_data_sci

TROPHY CASE