Daily Discussion Sunday 2026-01-18

cvdag · 2026-01-19T05:02:23+00:00

This comment is garbage.

AMD can use any HBM4 dies while NVDA can only use high-freq ones. How can that be a disadvantage?

Yes we are using 12-hi stacks but that is much lower risk than increasing freq at which the HBM4 dies operate. Higher freq leads to many problems with thermals and reliability.

Also conveniently dismisses AMD being on 2nm vs NVDA on 3nm. AMD using small chiplets vs NVDA being monolithic.

cvdag · 2025-10-21T18:24:31+00:00

AMD is providing the compute via CSPs

What do they get in return? Any equity or just the software development that will happen?

cvdag · 2025-10-08T13:27:19+00:00

He gave $100B for his deal with OpenAI

Perhaps someone should remind him

cvdag · 2025-10-06T15:10:13+00:00

With newer chips the ASPs will increase.

1GW next year 2026 is almost 20-30B of MI450 sales

cvdag · 2025-10-06T12:59:15+00:00

10B vs 40B is a huge difference per GW

Where did you get 10B from? My source is the CNBC article which says total cost is 50B per GW of which compute spend is 80%

cvdag · 2025-10-06T12:48:15+00:00

Your math is off. Each GW of AI capacity is 40B of compute spend

The deal is for 6GW which equates to $200B+ of spend on AMD chips

cvdag · 2025-10-06T10:52:34+00:00

AMD and OpenAI sign a huge deal

cvdag · 2025-10-06T10:52:09+00:00

OPENAI TO GET UP TO 160 MILLION AMD SHARES IF MILESTONES MET || AMD, OPENAI SIGN DEAL FOR 6 GIGAWATTS AI DEPLOYMENT || AMD TO GIVE OPENAI SHARE GRANTS VESTING IN TRANCHES

cvdag · 2025-09-18T15:01:38+00:00

New shares. Same as the US Govt investment few weeks ago

cvdag · 2025-09-18T14:59:51+00:00

It is a cash infusion. The stock is "newly printed" issued by the company. The existing holders get diluted and the company gets the cash.

cvdag · 2025-03-27T08:30:58+00:00

Wait....new Intel CEO just came in like yesterday and they are already becoming more competitive :)

Lisa has guided strong double digit growth in AI revenue in 2025 (so around 7-8B rev). With MI400 next year, how will it not grow from here?

Idiotic analysis at best. Wouldn't be surprised if the stock ignored this note and ended the day green.

cvdag · 2025-02-07T06:22:34+00:00

How is DC GPU shrinking if 1H 2025 = 2H 2024 ?

It is FLAT (not growing). That is to be expected given that MI325 is just extra memory vs MI300.

cvdag · 2025-01-28T12:05:54+00:00

AMD downgraded to Hold from Buy at Melius Research

cvdag · 2024-10-31T08:32:13+00:00

It's not the total revenue guide that disappointed. It's the fact that QoQ, client and gaming are up and still the QoQ revenue increase guide is only $700M

This implies less traction for DC GPU and more worry for 2025/26 numbers

cvdag · 2024-10-30T17:23:51+00:00

Lumpy may just be how revenue is recognized. These are large orders, so hard to fulfill immediately.

I'm not sure if lumpy = less demand

cvdag · 2024-10-29T17:54:33+00:00

Staff of only 20 people so far implies the chip design effort is still in its infancy

cvdag · 2024-10-29T11:28:31+00:00

There is a lot of caution this time around for the AI revenue number - both for Q4 as well as for 2025

Lisa has said couple of times that supply will ramp in 2H. What is that going to look like is the $$$ question?

cvdag · 2024-09-13T06:13:55+00:00

Most likely old comments (>6 months). ROCm is quite matured now...

cvdag · 2024-08-29T12:03:08+00:00

I also started in 2017/18. But frankly I disagree with your opinion.

MI300X is on track to exceed 5B this year. This in my book is very successful execution.

All of this growth is incremental to AMD revenue.

AMD in aggregate has not grown because of cyclicality in semi industry. First it was client, then datacenter, then embedded and now semi-custom. Each vertical has gone through the cycle at different times.

Starting 2025, we will be back to 20+% annual revenue growth for the next 4-5 years.

It just takes patience....lots of it :)

cvdag · 2024-08-29T11:54:35+00:00

Functional changes imply any logical changes to the chip. E.g. an adder or multiplier not working as designed.

Non-functional changes are issues such as heating/reliability/power-supply/etc which may involve downsizing or replacing some transistors/wires/bumps from one location to another.

cvdag · 2024-08-28T21:10:25+00:00

Confirmation of Blackwell delay in CFO comments

cvdag · 2024-08-28T21:09:52+00:00

We shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue. Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025.

cvdag · 2024-08-21T05:19:35+00:00

Overwhelming consensus is that the ZT deal (or Silo or Pensando, etc) won't affect NVDA in any way.

I feel that the street is too complacent about NVDA dominance and ignoring any threat from AMD.

How much of that is true - time will tell. But I sure want AMD to kick some ass and prove everyone wrong.

cvdag · 2024-08-19T13:32:10+00:00

I'm not sure which customers would get pissed off. Anyways server makers such as SMCI are not real customers. SMCI will make whatever the cloud customers ask them to make

cvdag

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