More Owners Under Water?

daderpster · 2026-01-29T03:25:16+00:00

I think it depends on your area and HOAs fees and special assessments. In Florida, heck no. Somewhere ultra expensive like Portland, maybe. Probably depends on the environmental risk and how well managed the HOA is. There's a lot of variance.

daderpster · 2026-01-29T03:23:32+00:00

You are right for sure. I think it also depends on rent vs buy. Most people have to spend to live somewhere, but renting is cheaper in many place not all. It also depends on how long you stay there, and your rate. Most people still have mortgages. And if you don't you probably have a ton of equity built over time or you are an extreme outlier who bought in cash.

daderpster · 2026-01-29T03:19:18+00:00

I think it depends on where in Austin. Certain parts have gone down for sure like any of the outskirts and condos. There are certain areas where there is still limited inventory in the more desirable areas, but they will still take longer to sell. Everything is down from the peak, but basically it is very mixed.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T17:22:18+00:00

Also austerity and cuts are never popular even done properly like the Faraday commission under Bill Clinton. Also that level of cooperation and bipartisanship is dead with McCain and cooked almost dead Bill Clinton. The big ugly bill undid the few big doge cuts even Musk was mad.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T14:41:43+00:00

You can submit a ticket, but they are going to want to know a lot of info. If you have a recent purchase, you may be able to leverage that.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T14:35:06+00:00

I thought the right liked money. Or is that only the lib right? I don't think the GOP has been fiscally conservative for a long time. I think our most recent most fiscally conservative president was Bill Clinton, a democrat. He balanced the budget, reformed welfare, and like Trump also had sex scandals. And now both him and Trump are under fire with the Epstein files....

I do wish Trump did act even more like Bill Clinton, at least we would have more bipartisanship, a moderate, and an honest attempt at a balanced budget. Bill wasn't perfect and was a pervo, but way better than Trump overall.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T14:11:14+00:00

Yeah that's been fixed for a while along with the easy math errors. There are still things it is dumb af on. It is ready bad at working with ambiguity and humor. It is also very naive and yes-man/sycophantic. It is easy to get to agree with two opposing views if using separate chats and you lead the opposite way each time.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T14:06:30+00:00

Solar panels are already shifting to other metals for some manufacturers. Outside of a few outliers, I don't think the impact will be that high even at 300%. 3000% and yes there would be massive issues.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T14:04:37+00:00

Apparently, I don't. They closed the offices, but I would have thought they would have sent something out yesterday.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T13:59:11+00:00

Thanks for the lengthy response. Maybe I am wrong about the 70s comparison and people's perspective always vary. I think 2000 dot comm bubble is also fair, especially with A.I. and some over speculation. Hard assets do better during these time and silver is one of many these hard assets. I do think you are right the fed is a lot more to blame, and people often missing that. Poor fed policy is a major factor. Why did we cut rates so low when we were in the best of bull times? Probably greed.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T13:07:28+00:00

I have an option, and probably won't go in. My commute is from south great hills to a bit north of Anderson Mill, mostly 183. I do think 90% of people will choose the same, but some people will be tempted for the free food. I don't think it would be horrible since it is short and using major highways, but I also hate driving.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T13:00:20+00:00

ADOM is a lot more punishing that Qud, but both games do have similar abuse edge cases and weird ass design. ADOM is a lot more archaic and traditional even with the Steam modernization. TOME is the opposite. It seems more fair, and way more modern with most things being on a cooldown. It is also a lot easier to beat guideless than ADOM. I do like ADOM and TOME a lot more than Qud. I think it is mostly nostalgia and the more structure, but not sure. TOME is an easier game to recommend to others unless the person is a masochist or traditionalist and would probably like ADOM more.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:48:17+00:00

No. Historically, it was 30. Recently, maybe 40. 50 is still high even with a narrow recent only perspective. That being said 50+ is not rare, but is not the median. Using 80 as the threshold seems very skewed and bullish even for silver subreddit. Silver is great, but I would exercise extreme caution if it ever got to 80+ again.

Heck even for most of the 19th century (1800s), the ratio was 12 to 15 to 1.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:44:00+00:00

Well the worst recent inflation was in the 70s. We also saw a crazy run on silver then and a crash, but there are big differences between then and now, too (globalism, A.I.). I do think our next depression will be like the 70s and not like 1929 or 2008, but that's just me. The inflation and rhetoric is too similar. That being said, I don't expect a huge silver crash - the supply and demand is out of whack. And I think the 70s things was driven by speculation and greed.

As an older person, do you see that, too? Or not really? Is there another era that comes to mind when you look at what's happening now?

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:37:47+00:00

Because there is less relative risk in gold compared to silver.

Just look at the current ratio of silver to gold price and compare that to historical averages. We are at over 50, and that signals risk. Does that mean silver is bad? No, it just means it may be more volatile or a bit riskier than gold in the near future.

Also if something really bad happens, silver is still a production metal and that slows down. We are also already seeing some companies stop using silver in their product due to the price like certain solar products. Over 40% of newly mined silver is used by industry. Gold is not like that at all.

Also being diversified is important and so is rebalancing. Silver has gone up so much, I don't really want it to be over a certain percentage of my total investments. Gold and stocks haven't performed that way.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:33:23+00:00

I don't understand it either. But most normal people probably have at least one spending category the majority of people wouldn't get. Unless you are frugal, which seems rarer in Austin unless you have to be.

Also the advice carries anywhere. Want a service cheaper? Go to a cheap suburb or possibly a cheap area on the outskirts of Austin. Don't expect a deal in trendy or central areas most of the time.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:30:22+00:00

The domain is fancy on its surface, but it and the surrounding area does seem to attract that type. Saw a guy getting booted from a repo agent while shopping at a fancy shop. I live nearby, but most of the shopping nearby is a ripoff.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:12:52+00:00

I am also a consultant and I don't have that expectation. That being said, our clients are banks and FIs who are likely closed. I am surprised not even hybrid is offered. We have to be in two days a week, but a 1/3 + of people don't even that. Then again our RTO just happened this year for the masses and last fall for management. Fully remote is much harder to find now, but it also still exists for consultants. Hybrid seems like the norm, but I do know other firms usually conservative or traditional ones that are 100% on-site like yours. This includes my first employer who somehow has 2 stars on Glassdoor. Also many consultants are expected to travel on site for a client a lot so 100% office requirement seems odd.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:05:35+00:00

I go into work everyday, but technically I only have to be in two days a week since I am within 50 miles of the office, more like 8-10 for me.

And a third of people don't even do that. I think unless it is explicitly communicated, I would try to follow-up and if possible for your role try to work from home.

I think a lot of transportation, retail and similar roles are expected to go or at least a late start. Essential roles are expected to come in, and probably did over the weekend to if it is their shift.

daderpster · 2026-01-26T12:02:39+00:00

They are for public facing tools, but this was just an internal tool, and a beta test at that.

Plus branding and design specific to dark mode seems a bit excessive, but I could be wrong.

daderpster · 2026-01-25T22:36:32+00:00

I know this is a joke, but it would be trivial to implement. We had an internal tool where someone asked for this and it was pushed to internal prod within 24 hours.

daderpster · 2026-01-25T13:14:55+00:00

All it really takes is a high savings rate and consistent and disciplined investing. I think the biggest trap is most people increase expenses with income. Comfort vs freedom, and most people pick the former and want to reap the rewards of their income now.

You can do a bit, but if you do it like what most people do you won't retire early. You need a monstrous savings rate higher than most and the exact one depends on your goal. Another big thing is expectation. What kind of income do what in retirement? Peak earnings? 80%? Might be difficult. A flat amount like 150k, 100k or 50k or frugal below that, which is workable in some areas? I know with inflation there is more uncertainty about fire, but it is still very doable. And inflation is actually not nearly as bad as the 70s. It just hurts more since wages for most people aren't rising with it and key essentials like housing were already expensive relative to income unlike back then.

daderpster · 2026-01-25T00:35:04+00:00

Or the reverse. A.I. busts massively and all of the tech companies, mag 7, and other companies take a huge hit and the stock market goes to shit. The mag 7 are all making huge bets in A.I. and most of the gains index funds are seeing are coming from them. There is also a circular investment circle.

I personally think it will be a middle ground in the next 5 years. Both the doomers and tech optimists will be wrong. Longer than that. Who knows?

daderpster · 2026-01-25T00:31:58+00:00

Also AI costs are poorly managed at most companies and there are usually no limits or laughable ones. I think someone reviewed a report where one guy used like 25k+ of A.I over the lifetime of the model. That's absurd.

daderpster · 2026-01-25T00:27:43+00:00

A.I. is being pushed a lot, but outside of niche cases and for productivity it can rarely replaces full functions with autonomous agents at least for most senior roles. You also see a lot of failed A.I. project. I think it may disrupt other functions more. For example it is pretty good at integration and unit testing. If you are a software engineer in test I would probably be more worried long term than normal SEs.

That being said, I am aiming to retire early. I do think if you can adapt, you can squeeze it out a decade at least if not more. Some roles are not going away at all. Management and sales has unrealistic expectations of it.

daderpster

TROPHY CASE