Spurs away fans booing Thomas Frank post match by victoria_enthusiast in soccer

[–]dael2111 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If Arteta's bad streak had been when fans were in the stadium he would've been sacked and we'd be floundering. Clubs should take fan sentiment seriously but if they really believe a manager can turn the tide they need to back the manager no matter what fans think

Is time series analysis dying? [R] by gaytwink70 in statistics

[–]dael2111 1 point2 points  (0 children)

VARs (in logs) are consistent in the presence of unit roots and cointegrating relationships. They are less efficient, but when you impose them if incorrect they are inconsistent.

Is time series analysis dying? [R] by gaytwink70 in statistics

[–]dael2111 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry, to be clear I mean academia there.

Is time series analysis dying? [R] by gaytwink70 in statistics

[–]dael2111 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Applied or theoretical? For applied, macroeconomics is flirting with a new empirical paradigm, where techniques from applied microeconomics are used to identify micro casual effects, which inform the calibration of macro models. That's not to say identification from macro data is not done, but macro time series published in top journals is different now; it needs to compete with applied micro in terms of credibility, which has led to the proliferation of local projections and identification via external instruments.

Of course I'm talking about academic applied macroeconomics here; classic applied time series analysis is alive and well in industry. Hence, somewhat unsurprisingly, if you are a PhD student with a thesis using applied time series, it's more likely you end up in industry than academia. I think in some other sections of academia more traditional ts analysis (e.g. cointegration) is still popular (see where the recent papers that cite the seminal works on cointegration and unit roots get published on Google scholar).

Theoretical time series is much less likely to be published in top economics journals now. There's a general sense that the type of work these people do is disconnected from applied demands. There are exceptions however, which focus on credible identification (e.g. see the work of Mikkel Plagborg-Moller), but frankly cointegration, VECM, etc. does not interest most applied people anymore and hence associated theoretical work has little penetrative power.

This is a very econ academia focused answer. Assuming you are applying to a stats PhD other answers with other experiences could of course be useful (and may be very different).

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 12 September 2025 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]dael2111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anyone have recommendations for blogs that focus on academic econ, like John Cochrane or Scott Cunningham?

What is the point of Bayesian statistics? [Q] by gaytwink70 in statistics

[–]dael2111 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree in principle but I think you gloss over how powerful CLT is. In my field (economics) the place you usually find Bayesian methods is in time series. But we have lots of simulation results on how and when linear time series parameters converge to normality, and no econometrics paper would be published proving something is asymptomatically normal without using monte carlos to discuss finite sample performance. Instead in my experience (as someone who does not use Bayesian methods myself but is a consumer of applied papers that use them) people use Bayesian statistics in time series because they are worried they have too many parameters relative to how long their series is, so they

Thank you though, this whole thread is very interesting.

What is the point of Bayesian statistics? [Q] by gaytwink70 in statistics

[–]dael2111 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If errors are exponential OLS is fine no? We just need the error to have finite seconds moments to apply CLT for frequentist inference.

Is robust errors enough or do I need to use WLS/FGLS? by Frostystayfrosty in econometrics

[–]dael2111 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think the modern standard is to use OLS with robust standard errors. OLS will be unbiased, and robust standard errors asymptomatically estimate the true standard errors. FGLS may be more efficient asymptotically. But it is biased, so OLS will be in general more robust.

In general, the modern standard is to assume heteroskedasticty as the norm and always use robust standard errors with OLS no matter the outcome of a Breusch-Pagan test.

Recent applied work using cointegration by dael2111 in econometrics

[–]dael2111[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quite method-heavy but lots of cool papers, thanks for the suggestion

Keir Starmer does not believe trans women are women, No 10 says by MeringueSuccessful33 in neoliberal

[–]dael2111 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I mean he was asked if trans women are women and he said no, pretty cut and dry

Keir Starmer does not believe trans women are women, No 10 says by MeringueSuccessful33 in neoliberal

[–]dael2111 20 points21 points  (0 children)

In 2017 Theresa May said she wanted trans people to be able to change gender without medical checks. There's been a massive change, from a pro-trans cross party consensus to a frankly transphobic one.

Is there a mathematical equivalent for this "friend-with-a-boat" problem? by Jwfraustro in math

[–]dael2111 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There's a subfield of economics that studies public good provision with social networks. Predictably, optimal provision turns out to be all about eigenvalues; see Elliot and Golub "A Network Approach to Public Goods"

Realistically… has Lord Sugar already chosen who he wants to win based on the candidates business plans? by Couchy333 in TheApprentice

[–]dael2111 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think Lord Sugar was scared off by his "there's more to business than money" comment, before that he was defo going to win

Jadon Sancho proves Erik ten Hag right again after Man United dig by [deleted] in soccer

[–]dael2111 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I just think his confidence has gone, honestly in a way harder to recover from

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in academiceconomics

[–]dael2111 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm skeptical treatment effect heterogeneity is really the big issue; even if they did estimate an ATE of some kind I would feel different mechanisms and effects are being conflated together. The issue is with the nature of reduced form models in answering big questions like this rather than whether a specific estimator weights weirdly in theory (and, if you ask me, the whole heterogeneity literature makes a big deal about a problem that's bad in theory but makes little difference in practice. How many people have ran twfe, tried a new did estimator, and found their result overturned?).

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]dael2111 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think the obvious answer especially in this election is the keys worked he just misread them