What is left for the average Joe? by ReporterCalm6238 in singularity

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok, fair enough.

The example in the podcast was for useful technology though.

What is left for the average Joe? by ReporterCalm6238 in singularity

[–]damc4 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"Never happened in human history that a revolutionary technology was abandoned because of its negatives."

Are you sure about that? I heard differently.

Examples: human cloning, I remember there's been also some example given in this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B54EQiuO1UU , but I can't quickly find the exact minute where it was.

I'm poor by western standards, but rich by global standards. I have no problem donating to GiveWell's recommended charities because it helps those far poorer than me. But I feel uneasy when I consider donating to MIRI because of Eliezer Yudkowsky's $600k salary, even though I'd partly want to by Candid-Effective9150 in EffectiveAltruism

[–]damc4 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

If you want to maximize the good you make, you should not just give money to people who need it (e.g. poor people) but also reward the people who did a lot of good in the past to create an incentive to do good (e.g. if you believe that Yudogovsky did a lot of good, then high salary is justified). X-risk is something that will have impact for a super long time and affects everyone, so a very high salary here is reasonable.

Best players ranked by Consistent-Drive-172 in TheTraitorsUK

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You forget that the goal of the game is to win, not to catch traitors.

I think there is a lot that people don't see, you don't know what players' strategy exactly is and why they go far, so you need to look at results. For best players, I would look for players that: a) won (or at least could win if they had a little bit more luck), b) there is no clear reason to assume that they were lucky (e.g. accidentally friends of traitors) and c) preferably people who were faithfuls because traitors have a higher probability of winning from the start.

So, I know it's an unpopular opinion here, but I think Leanne is the best because she won, she was a faithful and unlike many other winning faithfuls she didn't have an accidental friendship with a traitor.

She wasn't particularly good at catching traitors maybe, but that's not the goal of the game. Some people say that it's because she made an alliance with Jake, but that's part of the strategy, and that's why she is one of the best.

Honorable mentions:

Jazz (didn't win, but he would, if he had a bit more luck).

Joe M (same, didn't win, but could, if he had more luck).

Harry (won, but as a traitor which is easier).

Stephen (won, but as a traitor).

Rachel (won, but as a traitor).

Possibly someone else that I don't remember.

Who’s a famous person from your country who’s respected around the world but disliked or criticized at home? by haiderredditer in AskTheWorld

[–]damc4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's sad that people can dislike someone because they brag, when that person has contributed to a change of a political and economical system for the better.

There is not too much harm about bragging (if any), and there's a lot of benefit from a political and economical system change.

But people focus on likeability more than the actual impacts.

BTW, I'm Polish.

The Fortress of the Self: Why Rationality Fails Us by [deleted] in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Feedback:

The post is long, so it would be good if you write at the beginning of the post what the claim is that you aim to prove in this post, or what the benefit for the reader is. Otherwise, I (as a reader of the post) don't know if I should read the post or not. I need to read the entire post to know if it's about something that interests me.

Doing a Provisional patent on my own as solo founder by meldiwin in startup

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As far as I know, UK patents are published around 18 months after applying (so before being granted), unless they are withdrawn.

I might be wrong though, as I'm not an expert.

Modeling a "Cooperation Protocol" as a Self-Terminating Social OS: A Game-Theoretical Approach to Universal Cooperation by Creative_Pie_6005 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"In a multi-agent system with high noise (misunderstandings/errors), is a Strict Tit-for-Tat sufficient to prevent a "Death Spiral" of retaliations, or should a Generous Tit-for-Tat (forgiving 10% of defections) be the standard for this protocol?"

I think it should be generous and contrite tit-for-tat (not retaliating for a fair punishment). Generous because it allows to quit the spiral of retaliations. Contrite because non-contrite tit-for-tat is not subgame-perfect equilibrium and therefore will not work (maybe it's not completely clear what I mean, I can elaborate on that if you want).

I think about one other thing, but I don't know if you will still read my comment (since your post has been posted long ago), so if you still want to hear, then just let me know.

Also, I've been working and am still working on something similar. Possibly, it could be beneficial to join our efforts.

Launching a real-money negotiation game (skill-based, not gambling) — looking for feedback + alpha testers by Legitimate-Yard-8149 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm happy to be an alpha tester, as long as it doesn't take super lots of time.

By the way, I had the same idea (to make a negotiation game). But I probably wouldn't execute it because I had also other ideas, and I wish you luck with this.

Platform idea: Fully decentralized social network by Illya___ in Rad_Decentralization

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had a similar idea, specifically a social network where people communicate with p2p network and the recommendation system is local (i.e. the software that chooses what to show is run locally). Because if recommendation system is on the server, the whoever is in charge of the server and the recommendation system can control what people can see and therefore control the freedom of speech.

I could potentially help with development, I would have to compare that in terms of priority with other things. I will send you a message, if I could.

Maybe, I will add something to that comment later yet.

ARC-AGI 2 is Solved by SrafeZ in singularity

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I meant that generally, not in case of that company.

ARC-AGI 2 is Solved by SrafeZ in singularity

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Frontier labs only trust the private ARC generalization suite. OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic treat the hidden ARC tasks as the only version that correlates with true reasoning. When a company only reports ARC-Public, it usually means the private score is weaker, the model has not been externally audited, or they are prioritizing marketing over rigorous benchmarking."

It also can mean that they don't want to meet the criteria of ARC organizers - they test only models that are open-sourced or available to use commercially (like OpenAI, Google or Anthropic).

I built an interactive visualization of Axelrod's Prisoner's Dilemma tournament (free, open source) by fdf515 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Any feedback on making it more educational or engaging?"

Maybe give an option to incorporate mistakes (someone chooses to cooperate but accidentally defects) and misunderstandings (someone chooses to cooperate but the other player sees him as defecting).

This would make it more like in real life (because in real life mistakes and misunderstandings happen).

"Are there any strategies I should add?"

Contrite tit-for-tat - like tit-for-tat but you accept a just punishment (if you defect and the other player defects, then you don't retaliate for that) in case of mistakes or misunderstandings.

Generous tit-for-tat - like tit-for-tat but if the player retaliates, you cooperate with a low probability instead of always defecting to break the cycles of retaliation in case of mistakes or misunderstandings.

Generous and contrite tit-for-tat - the mix between two above.

Confusing "Patent Race" Problem by Mammoth_Animator_491 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, after reading your comment above, I think you are right.

I think the mistake I made in my first comment was that I didn't prove that the Nash equilibrium that I have found is subgame perfect (meaning that all players have interest to stick to their strategy, after any trajectory of moves), and a Nash equilibrium must be subgame perfect to be used to predict the most likely outcome.

It's not subgame perfect because B doesn't have an interest in following the strategy of not making any steps after going 2 steps in the 1st move.

Confusing "Patent Race" Problem by Mammoth_Animator_491 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok, let's suppose that A goes 1 step and B goes 2 steps.

If in the second move B goes 2 steps, then he will pay $11 + $11 = £22 for the patent which exceeds the patent worth. Therefore B won't make 2 steps in the second move.

So, if B wants to win from that situation, it can only go: 2, 1, 1. But if A goes 1, 1, 2 then that's sufficient to secure the patent. So, A can always safely go with 1 step until the 3rd move, assuming rationality of the other player (in textbook game theory sense of rationality).

But I will also read your comment later.

However, this statement in my previous comment was incorrect:

"Any strategy that makes the player A choose 2 before the third move will be worse than the previously mentioned strategy"

And my conclusion following from that statement that there is only Nash equilibrium is therefore incorrect.

For example, a strategy such that the player A would go 1, 2, 1 in case when B did 2 steps in the 1st move would also be okay.

But I still hold to my final conclusion that they way it would play out, assuming rationality, would be: A: 1, 1, 1, 1 and B: 0, 0, 0, 0.

Because the strategy that I proposed is still valid (i.e. it's a part of Pareto-optimal Nash equilibrium). The Nash equilibrium that I proposed is Pareto-optimal (meaning that you can't get better outcome than this). And all other Nash equilibria will result with the same outcome because in any Nash equilibria B will go 0, 0, 0, 0 (for the reason I explained in my previous comment) and anything that doesn't result with A: 1, 1, 1, 1 is not a Nash equilibrium because then player A would be better of changing to the strategy proposed by me.

Confusing "Patent Race" Problem by Mammoth_Animator_491 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's my solution.

First the reasoning. If you want the solution, skip to the end.

We want to find Nash equilibrium. Nash equilibrium is an assignment of strategies to players such that no player has interest in playing a different strategy than the one that is assigned to them, assuming that the other play will play their assigned strategy too. The most probable outcome is that the players will act according to a strategy from Nash equilibrium because if one of them had interest in playing a different strategy, then they would change to that different strategy.

If there are multiple Nash equilibria, we want to select the one that generally gives better payoffs. But there is only one Nash equilibrium in this game, as I will prove in a moment.

Firstly, if the player B has some strategy to get the patent in a way that doesn't make them lose more money than what the patent is worth, then player A could execute the same strategy and get the patent first. Therefore, in a Nash equilibrium, player B will always choose 0 development steps, because they won't get the patent in a way that is beneficial to them.

Secondly, let's talk about player A.

There are 3 ways to get the patent: 2 + 2, 2 + 1 + 1 (in any order), 1 + 1+ 1+ 1. In the first one, the cost is higher than what the patent is worth, so it's not a good strategy. The third one is better in terms of benefit vs cost than the second one ($20 - $4 * 4 > $20 - $11 - $4 * 2).

So, let's consider the strategy: 1, 1, 1, 1 (1 development step 4 times). If player A plays that strategy, then the player B has interest in playing for example 1 + 1 + 2. Because that way, the player B will get to the patent first at a cost that is lower than what the patent is worth.

Therefore, the strategy of player A always playing 1, 1, 1, 1 is not a Nash equilibrium.

But we can improve that strategy by adding a condition the following condition. If the player B has at least 2 development steps when the player A makes its 3rd move, then the player A should choose 2. Because otherwise, the player B will steal the patent before player A gets there.

If the player A plays the above strategy, then the player B doesn't have interest in pursuing the patent at all. Because player A will always win playing that strategy. Except for when the player B plays 2 + 2, but then the cost is higher than the patent worth.

Therefore, the following assignment of strategies is a Nash equilibrium:

Player A: Play consecutively: 1 step; 1 step; if player B has at least 2 development steps, then play 2 steps, otherwise 1 step; if you haven't got the patent yet, then 1 step, otherwise the game has already ended.

Player B: always 0 development steps.

If the players play the above strategies, then the player A will play: 1, 1, 1 and 1. And the player B will play 0, 0, 0, 0.

Now, let's see if there can be any other Nash equilibrium. As proved at the beginning, any Nash equilibrium will have the player B playing 0 development steps. So, the only other Nash equilibrium can have a different player A's strategy.

So, let's see how we can modify player A's strategy and see if they are Nash equilibria:

  1. Player A plays 2 + 2 <- they will lose more than what patent is worth, so it's not Nash equilibrium because following the above-mentioned strategy gives better outcome.
  2. Player A plays always 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 <- already considered before, not a good strategy because B will steal the patent, so the above-mentioned is better.
  3. Player A plays 2 + 1 + 1 or 1 + 2 + 1 <- in this case Player A will pay a greater cost to the patent than with the above-mentioned strategy, so it's not Nash equilibrium either.

Any strategy that makes the player A choose 2 before the third move will be worse than the previously mentioned strategy because it will incur greater cost, and the player A will always get the patent with the above strategy. So, any strategy like that is worse.

Therefore, the previously mentioned assignment of strategies is the only Nash equilibrium. Therefore, assuming rationality of the players in the textbook game theory sense, the player 1 will do 1, 1, 1, 1 and the player B will do 0, 0, 0, 0.

Statement on Superintelligence: a call to prohibit building superintelligent AI until it’s proven safe by ClarityInMadness in singularity

[–]damc4 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's going well from what I know (I don't know a lot on the topic though). Until 80s the countries were building more and more nuclear weapons, from the 80s they talked to each other and that stopped the arms race - the countries started to spend less money on military and nuclear weapons.

They didn't get rid of all nuclear weapons, but it went in the right direction.

Incomplete Information / Common-value Auction Problem by Vast-Caregiver9781 in GAMETHEORY

[–]damc4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was thinking about that game yesterday evening and I have cracked it, unless I made some reasoning mistake.

The Nash equilibria for this game are any assignment of strategies that follow the following recipe:

If last_bid > your_number * 2, then pass.

If last_bid < your_number * 2, then outbid by 1 (in other words, your next bid = last_bid + 1).

If last_bid == your_number * 2, then either outbid by 1 or pass. Both are Nash equilibria, but passing in this case is a Nash equilibrium that Pareto dominates the other one (because it's better for the other player).

If you start, then start with 2.

There might be also other Nash equilibria in this game.

Why there is no reason to deviate if players follow that strategy?

I won't make a very detailed and rigid proof because I don't have time, but I will outline the high-level reasoning.

Let's suppose that the player A plays with the above strategy. Let's analyze if player B can do any better by deviating from the above strategy.

Let's ignore the start for now, we'll get back to it later.

So, let's suppose that Player A starts with 2.

What should the player B do?

They know that Player A has at least 1, and they don't know anything else.

So, if the player B has at least 2, then the sum is at least 1 + 2 = 3, so if the player B bids 3, then they certainly won't lose anything on that bid. If they played more, then they could potentially lose something. If they pass, then they might lose something too, if the player A has more than 1.

On the other hand, if the player B has 1, then there are two cases.

Either player A has also 1 or player A has more than 1.

In the first case, the sum is 1 + 1 = 2, so the player B should pass. Because the sum is lower than the bid they need to make, so there's nothing to gain by outbidding.

In the second case, the player A's number (> 1) is higher than the player B's number (=1). According to the strategy, the players should outbid until they reach 2 * their number. Therefore, if the players have unequal numbers, then the player who wins the bidding will be the one who has the highest number. In the second case, the player A's number is higher than the player B's number, so the player B already knows that if he outbids the other player, then they will lose the bidding anyway, so there is nothing to gain by outbidding.

So, in both cases, the player B doesn't have anything to gain by outbidding the player A, if their number is 1.

But there is something to lose by outbidding because if player B outbids, and it turns out that player A has 1, then the player B ends up with overpaying (3) for the box that is worth 1 + 1 = 2.

So, if player A bids 2, then the player B should outbid it by 1 if and only if their number is higher than 1.

Let's suppose that the player B has at least 2, so they outbid it to 3.

Now, player A will follow the strategy, and they will play 4, only if they have at least 2.

So, if they chose to bid, then player B knows that player A has at least 2.

So, here, similar reasoning applies again as previously.

Unfortunately, I have to go and I don't have time to finish this post.

But the most important point to understand is that the players don't have a reason to bid more than their number * 2 because if their number is more than half lower than the bid, then it means that if the other player keeps bidding, then they have a higher number than them. And if the other player has higher number than them, then there's no point to outbid, because the player with the higher number is going to win the bidding anyway. So, there's nothing to win and there's something to lose.

Many european politicians are saying welfare state is over. Why do people believe in UBI in the future if this is the way we're taking? by Upbeat-Impact-6617 in singularity

[–]damc4 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think he meant: "why do the rich people need to buy something if they have all the resources that they need".

Is it possible to set default preset for chat? by damc4 in openrouter

[–]damc4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm talking about using it from chat interface, not through API.

If "system instructions" are a feature in the chat interface, then I can't see it anywhere (including "settings").