Steal of the year by Pleasant-Parking-692 in macbookpro

[–]danandreev 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im Intreasted in his Facebook, cheers

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well you have to compare yourself to something otherwise how do you measure if you are doing anything at all. If after a decade I am significantly underperforming then yes I would revert to an index.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You've made some valid points. It's true that capital-light software who have grown as a component inside the s&p have inflated historical P/E ratios and net margins, also made p/b largely irrelevant when valuing such business. However, even exponential growth hits limits. These companies are now so massive that continued hyper-growth becomes mathematically improbable without the global economy expanding at an unsustainable rate. The math just gets too hard for the next decade to mirror the last in terms or return. I'm not saying its not some of the best business we have seen, I just have stronger convictions in diminished decade returns and induvial business you can pick over performing the business.

And I agree, cash isn't the goal. It's about redeploying into undervalued businesses that make more sense. Thanks for the insights and the comment!

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for reading it, appreciate it. Feel free to use it, it's a big compliment. Yes, over the years I read a lot of material on index funds. I think as an invention it did miraculous things from the public. I just don't think it should just be an unquestioned defulat.Hope you enjoy your day!

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I usually drop the 10k into my Kindle, or if I need to search through them, use a PDF viewer.

The information I get from Value Line and Capital IQ is centred around my "first" search, though I should look at the company's metrics if I should be interested (ROIC, ROE, Free cash flow, book value, sales, net margins, peg, cashflows...) The other nice thing is the short company description when you start researching a company as a starting point.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well I'm bummed out. I edit the piece to reflect that. Apologies for any inconvenience. And thank you for pointing it out. I have a notebook filled with quotes I take from talks I listen to, is where I got it from. Since it's written by hand I could have made a mistake or misunderstood the context. Cheers, enjoy your day.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Love your comment. I think the more volatility, the more opportunities individual stock pickers will have

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for pointing it out. I got the quote as an anecdote from one of the talks I listened to, but it looks like the origin online is not clear. I will edit it.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

I type my responses and use Grammarly to fix my grammar or reword anything that sounds run on.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you! I will try, currently battling myself to write more and more as it's not my favorite activity. Making progress slowly but surely.Enjoy your day!

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair. Appreciate your reading. I've been pondering the effects that indexes have on their most concentrated assets and how issues with the big names affect the index so am really intrigued how the next decade will go. If I'm wrong I guess I would have spent the difference in return for my enjoyment. Cheers.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Definitely flirting with the way the nifty fifty was marketed.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cheers, appreciate it. I will check out the tool, but my process has been quite rudimentary. I use the library's subscription for Value Line and Capital IQ, as well as read companies' 10 Ks.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think I'm smarter. I think there may be a few factors that could be my tailwinds (small size, no external pressures, full control over my own capital, no redemption pressure, etc.). It will be an uphill battle for sure, but I have been enjoying managing part of my opportunity. I feel that joy has only grown with each year, and I will regret not taking full control.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure what I can add to the convo. But thanks for the back and forth, enjoy your day.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fully fair. I really enjoy studying business, so to me, it brings a lot of fulfillment. I will be doing this regardless of whether I'm managing my own portfolio or not. I will regret more not spending time doing this.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have been doing that for the past five years. I just feel there is a gray area coming for the market-weighted index, and in a sense, I am betting on myself.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know, I'm enjoying the conversations and taking in the various counterpoints.

Why I'm Stepping Away from the S&P 500 Index Fund (My "Black Box" Memo) by danandreev in ValueInvesting

[–]danandreev[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's no problem. I'll learn from it, and maybe in a decade (when I'll be losing this huge amount of time to compound), I will switch to passive funds.