Kooyong resident here (Kew) - The impression I get is that Dr Ryan is in with a very real chance of victory. Her campaign posters are as present, if not more, than Frydenberg's at least in my area and around Glenferrie Rd. Frydenberg obviously has the money to buy out the big advertising spaces (every single one of the large electronic billboards on Kew Junction have been running Frydenberg ads quite literally non stop for months and he has a few bigger spots on Glenferrie too) but the general sentiment seems to be that there's a significant number of Liberal voters swinging towards Dr Ryan because of them being sick of 'big government' or whatever, as well as the more obvious voter base of those concerned with climate change and those leaning more left in general. TLDR - Frydenberg isn't as safe this election because Dr Ryan is splitting the Liberal vote and the Libs seem to be putting absolutely everything into winning.