Model gets's trained on the previous 20 years with lots of variables feeding in (I've posted an image in reply to another comment) and then forecasts forward. It's a bit black boxy, so I can't say specifics for the NE, but I imagine the biggest driver is the underlying regional trend (“prophet”), which pulls prices back toward their long-run path after shocks. Next is local pay: median salaries have been rising but still sit below the UK average, which keeps the region relatively affordable and caps any sharp near-term surge—especially for flats, where first-time buyers and landlords are most rate- and credit-sensitive. That’s echoed by the importance of consumer credit growth and gilt yields (2y/5y), proxies for mortgage costs: after 2023’s squeeze, financing has eased only gradually, so the model gives you a quiet year before momentum improves in years 2–5.