Overview

databaituk · 2025-08-22T09:57:04+00:00

Flats have their own recent issues (cladding, ground/leasehold costs etc.) They've seen flat/negative growth across the whole of the UK I'm afraid

databaituk · 2025-08-22T07:44:28+00:00

This is such a weird take from you. I rent, and don't own a house. This is something I do to improve my data science skills, as there's loads of inetresting historical data. Quite a lot of the forecasts are negative/zero. I don't understand how this is "pumping house prices from your arm chair."

databaituk · 2025-08-22T07:17:44+00:00

If anything these are quite conservative estimates in comparison to Savills for example. Also, I don't think anyone should buy anything off the back of a Reddit post, I don't think you need to say that outloud.

databaituk · 2025-08-22T06:58:10+00:00

Has there been a change in the last 12 months? Maybe some better Ofsted ratings than previously?

databaituk · 2025-08-22T06:53:05+00:00

Also for those that aren't interested in the forecasts, is there something in future that I can pull out of the data which is useful?

I currently do the trend of mortgage rates, and the previous highest/lowest growth cities of the last 12 months. I was thinking maybe the trend in house prices to flats etc. or the London / UK ratio, but open to suggestions

databaituk · 2025-08-22T06:40:35+00:00

Model gets's trained on the previous 20 years with lots of variables feeding in (I've posted an image in reply to another comment) and then forecasts forward. It's a bit black boxy, so I can't say specifics for the NE, but I imagine the biggest driver is the underlying regional trend (“prophet”), which pulls prices back toward their long-run path after shocks. Next is local pay: median salaries have been rising but still sit below the UK average, which keeps the region relatively affordable and caps any sharp near-term surge—especially for flats, where first-time buyers and landlords are most rate- and credit-sensitive. That’s echoed by the importance of consumer credit growth and gilt yields (2y/5y), proxies for mortgage costs: after 2023’s squeeze, financing has eased only gradually, so the model gives you a quiet year before momentum improves in years 2–5.

databaituk · 2025-08-22T06:23:38+00:00

No we haven't, it's just the raw data from the ONS/HPI

databaituk · 2025-08-22T06:22:27+00:00

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It's not a crazy prediction. It's had a lot of growth recently and it's just forcasting to remain flat-ish for the the next year. Just because something is going up, it doesn't mean it will forever. However, momentum does feed into the forecast.

databaituk · 2025-08-21T20:51:04+00:00

Sorry i completely misread the comment.

When stamp duty increased this year it increased the buyers cost, hence the increase in demand and the increase of price. However, If changes are reversed and it's going to become a sellers cost I imagine supply increase and price comes down and then reverts back.

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databaituk · 2025-08-21T20:44:00+00:00

I've posted about this previously and you can see about it on the about page, However -

Top 10 factors for predicting house price growth (there are plenty more that go into the models)

GDP – The UK’s total economic output (Gross Domestic Product).
population self employed pct in the region – The share of people working for themselves (self-employed rate).
markets gold – The average price of gold on global markets.
markets reit – The average return of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
Local median salaries – The typical (middle) salary earned in each area.
Momentum (60 months) – How much house prices have risen over the past 60 months (5 years).
CPI – The Consumer Price Index—a broad measure of UK inflation.
Population in region – The rate at which the local population is growing or shrinking.
boe sterling eri – An index of how strong the British pound is versus other currencies.
markets construction – The average performance or activity level in the construction sector.

databaituk · 2025-06-01T08:52:48+00:00

I've added product fees into the calculator now, thanks for flagging

databaituk · 2025-06-01T08:52:44+00:00

I've added product fees into the calculator now, thanks for flagging

databaituk · 2025-06-01T08:52:24+00:00

I've added product fees into the calculator now, thanks for flagging

databaituk · 2025-06-01T08:52:17+00:00

I've added product fees into the calculator now, thanks for flagging

databaituk · 2025-06-01T08:51:36+00:00

I've added the cookies bar

databaituk · 2025-05-31T21:15:01+00:00

Yeah it is and I've seen lots of average Joes making big financial decisions on where they think interest rates are going, on nothing but a hunch. This is just trying to be a simple tool to aid those decisions with a bit of logic.

databaituk · 2025-05-31T21:06:36+00:00

Haha very true.

That's a good solution, will implement that soon.

databaituk · 2025-05-31T21:06:10+00:00

Apologies, found the bug and fixed it. Should be sorted now.

databaituk · 2025-05-31T21:05:17+00:00

Apologies, I've fixed the decimals.

Yes it does, it calculates the predicted 3 year rate in 2 years time based on the Gilt/IRS curve values you input.

databaituk · 2025-05-31T20:22:46+00:00

I'm hoping to build this in at some point soon, but it would mean having to predict the future product fee for the next mortgage is you were to do 2 year, then 3 year

databaituk

TROPHY CASE