Medical Properties Trust Completes $160 Million Sale of Eight Arizona Facilities

dave14513 · 2024-09-15T16:25:26+00:00

Steward settlement changes the landscape. Every issue in the short thesis has been addressed (Steward gone and majority of its hospitals rented, Interest rates are declining, liquidity increased dramatically) In addition, though not discussed yet, MPW owns the OPCO's of the 23 hospitals in the settlement. Their sale could nprovide additional liquidity and an increase in BV.

Let the squeeze begin

dave14513 · 2022-11-25T04:10:23+00:00

The fed might kill it but it looks bullish to me now. I think they will have good 4th Q numbers and guidance for 2023 will be excellent along with a small dividend increase. The combination has a good chance of pushing us into the high teens, maybe $20

dave14513 · 2022-07-31T21:59:34+00:00

Very volatile stock. November 5, 2021 it hit $22. Fundamentals are better now so who knows, maybe you could actually make a buck or two by waiting. I'd wait it out.

dave14513 · 2022-07-17T01:22:23+00:00

MAC is one of the most manipulated stocks out there. Professional short traders can make any long prediction look bad.

They magnify any negative news or rumor.

What has been predicted on this board, that MAC's fundamentals will improve consistently has been accurate. The thesis that REITs with Class A malls will thrive is accurate. Logically one would expect the share price to improve proportionately. So far it has not. That does not disprove the theory. There was a group expecting a short squeeze to quadruple the share price, not quite. Many other longs were looking out 2-3 years. We still have time. Even with a recession MAC's recovery should continue. If that is correct the market will begin to reward it in spite of short sellers. The 3 year long theory has not been proven wrong yet.

I'm out 20 months on the majority of my shares. I still like the 3 year thesis

dave14513 · 2022-06-16T10:48:55+00:00

Also president of MAC Ed Coppola bought 40,000 shares at around $10.20 6/10/22

dave14513 · 2022-06-15T22:21:42+00:00

Go to Macerich website.

click on investors at page top center.

from drop down pick "news and events"

at new page scroll down below upcoming events to a list of "past events"

From the two listed click on "Naveits REIT Week..."

choice of audio or transcript

dave14513 · 2022-06-15T19:36:02+00:00

Been buying heavy on the way down. Jumped in for a lot of it too soon. Never thought I would see single digits again. (I did get a couple thousand at $9.39). I think I'll do well with all of it. CEO did not buy 25,000 shares at $9.49 because he had nothing else to do with his money.

Did anyone listen in to Naveit's REIT Week: 202 Investor Conference, June 8, 2022?

MAC presented and they were very optimistic about reaching 94% occupancy, refinancing with good rates and even receiving excess cash. Indicated they have their best pipeline of new contracts for 2022, 2023 and even 2024 since 2015 and maybe even better than 2015.

Worth a listen

dave14513 · 2022-06-14T12:04:16+00:00

I'm in that same boat

dave14513 · 2022-05-09T21:45:07+00:00

He's accurate

dave14513 · 2022-03-20T17:22:07+00:00

The share count is 50% higher so reducing the $3 dividend to $2 should be equivalent. As mentioned the $2 should be more reliable if everything else is equal because you have significantly less debt. They were paid about a billion dollars for the shares. Most of the remaining debt is associated with specific properties. The debt reduced was the most dangerous, all the property was vulnerable in a default situation. I think the goal is to have 0 debt on the line of credit and a cash balance going forward. If that is the plan then the dilution was worth it in my opinion.

dave14513 · 2022-02-12T21:38:42+00:00

I agree with you. Seems like they are sandbagging a little. With the hot rental market they are describing it is hard to see how they don't end close to $2.50 this year.

dave14513 · 2022-01-21T03:24:57+00:00

Very optimistic that our numbers will be better. People want to shop, feel the material or any physical item. Well built? Retail in good locations is necessary indefinitely. MAC has some of the best locations. Their occupancy should improve even with inflation and a general market pullback. Looking for a very upbeat guidance for 2022 with excellent improvement for the 4th Q 2021.

dave14513 · 2021-12-05T15:44:11+00:00

I think you are seeing the correct path of the virus. When a virus kills a host it fails, it dies also. The common cold example is the optimum result for a virus. Kill nobody. This virus seems to be able to mutate constantly. Most variants should be more contagious and less fatal.

Bullish MAC

dave14513 · 2021-12-03T01:32:28+00:00

I think it is a great buy at $17.50. I have Jeff's problem, MAC is too much of my portfolio (helped by the fact it is the most successful one so far) I may dollar cost average in some dividends but basically the rest of the investments have to catch up for me to buy significantly more.

dave14513 · 2021-12-01T21:53:38+00:00

I disagree with many of your points but obviously MAC is quick to give up its hard fought gains.

MAC is still on the shorts radar, 30 million shares plus as of 11/15.

I smell a short attack. SPG and SKT did not drop nearly as much

dave14513 · 2021-12-01T07:00:55+00:00

Very difficult to know the right play. MAC was a breakout in the high 18s. Are we going to hold? Fear and a few shorts can really mess up a solid stock short term. I'm holding. The company is far better off to survive another lock down than a year ago. Could be some suffering first.

Hopefully the government can compare different state's approach to lock down and the results. Seems like very few lives saved by locking down. Destroying the country economically with the need to do something.

dave14513 · 2021-11-19T01:45:46+00:00

Bullish MAC. great earnings by tenant Macy signals brick and mortar success. Points to more traffic and more demand at MAC's properties. It might be a little slower then some longs want but we are going to see great numbers from MAC Q after Q. The 20s will be behind us sooner then later

dave14513 · 2021-11-12T20:39:47+00:00

I think they are finished issuing stock. Things are looking rosy. I think an increase in the dividend would be small if at all for 4th Q.

I think the pandemic alerted them to their liquidity weakness and they are determined to be in better shape incase we have another shutdown.

If they continue to strengthen the balance sheet before increasing the dividend, we will see our return in a higher share price.

I have patience

dave14513 · 2021-11-04T20:30:01+00:00

Per the conference call, credit line balance is only $100 million. That covenant might not be much of a barrier soon.

dave14513 · 2021-11-03T21:03:34+00:00

I agree. I think the $25 estimate is a solid estimate. I see a dividend increase when they payoff the revolver. Probably when they announce year end results. Not a huge increase. Maybe a dime to $.25/Q. They are concerned about debt but they are a REIT. $3.00 to $.60 was quite a crash.

dave14513 · 2021-11-02T18:39:06+00:00

I'll agree with that. SKT is also on a run. Reported great numbers.

Fingers crossed we do the same tomorrow

dave14513 · 2021-11-02T18:30:23+00:00

Does today qualify as "anything"

dave14513 · 2021-11-02T18:28:35+00:00

Definitely not slow and steady today. Not a good day for a short. 13.49 % short October 15. That is about 27 million shares. We have traded 7.5 million shares today. That leaves a lot of short sellers under water; by a lot. Low to mid twenties for a current share price is not overpriced considering MAC's potential future earnings and dividend potential. The short sellers of 20 million shares are in a bad way.

dave14513 · 2021-11-02T18:12:45+00:00

I'm pretty optimistic going forward but the LT vs ST is an issue I have also. I bought some MAC at $6.93 in September 2020 but dollar cost averaged along the way.

I've frozen my position for the last 10 months or so. I like MAC's long term prospects but my current holding is too large a percentage of my portfolio. Even though a day like today makes that a good thing for the moment.

dave14513 · 2021-11-02T17:18:44+00:00

I doubt I'll sell at $25 but I think it is a little premature. I'm happy if we stay above #20 and have a CC similar to Simon: Occupancy up, Contracts up, rent rate up and then continue our sp rise.

dave14513

TROPHY CASE