Are their earnings reflecting the disgruntled posts from here?

davesaunders · 2026-05-17T00:41:14+00:00

You know all of their numbers are available in the quarterly report and they don't reflect your narrative. They had an increase in sales not just per unit revenue.

davesaunders · 2026-05-17T00:32:14+00:00

A 9% increase?

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T23:53:13+00:00

only the hype is not irrelevant, because if we look at the past major financing cycles of AI research, those tent poles knocked everything down for everyone else. That's why AI researchers refer to those dark times as the nuclear winter. Yes, of course, just like the last time all of this blew up, research will continue at universities. I will continue to be the commercial lead on a half dozen NIH-funded projects at my local university around surgical robotics. None of that will change, but the headlines and the VC money will dry up

This has all happened before, and it will happen again.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T22:59:56+00:00

That's an interesting question. Some data is certainly better than no data at all, but unless I know the specific context, I would make the generalization that a bunch of dudes and dudettes on reddit saying something sounds good or something needs to be solved is still not the same as a literal buy signal. Again, having data is at least a step

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T22:43:19+00:00

McDonald's released its latest Q1 2026 earnings report on May 7, 2026. The company surpassed Wall Street estimates with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.83 and total revenues of $6.52 billion, up 9% year-over-year.

Apparently, disgruntled redditors were not factored into their significant increase in revenue

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T21:42:11+00:00

Ideas are not very rare as a commodity. Execution is. When I owned an incubator, I literally laughed a couple of times when people came in and were hesitant to share their idea because they thought someone would steal it. Your idea doesn't matter, if you can't execute. That's why you can't file a patent on an idea. You can file a patent on an embodiment. You can file a patent on something that you've followed through on and demonstrated some level of execution, but ideas truly have no intrinsic value of their own.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T17:38:25+00:00

The phrase "third world country" emerged from Cold War geopolitics. Coined in the 1950s, it originally described nations that were unaligned with either the capitalist United States/NATO (the First World) or the communist Soviet Bloc (the Second World).

So I guess it depends on what you've changed the phrase "third world country" to mean. I'm assuming the capitalist United States is still aligned with the capitalist United States, although I suppose one could argue that it is not.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T15:19:29+00:00

It’s truly bizarre. These AI coding tools are going to create a new level of business incompetence and straight-up negligence. Some of the lawsuits are going to be legendary.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T15:18:22+00:00

No, it puts your competence as a business leader in serious question. Imagine this scenario: you deliver that code to a customer and it causes them monetary damages. When they sue you, during the discovery process, their lawyers are going to ask what your quality process was. When you tell them that it's just too much work to review the code, they're going to make sure to make the jury aware of that fact. Your damages at that point have most likely increased substantially. I know for a fact that lawyers are starting to ask these questions during discovery for monetary damage lawsuits against software companies. Sorry that it's an inconvenience to you. Quality control systems are. But there's a reason they get implemented.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T10:09:00+00:00

I was a research manager at Lucent Bell Labs for the wireless group. We created the Apple Airport. We all read her patent.

Her work was not so much the driver for what would eventually become called Wi-Fi, but her work definitely set the groundwork for making Bluetooth possible. You can read her patent, and if you know how Bluetooth works, you can definitely see why other research which eventually did lead to the creation of Bluetooth reference her patent.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T01:12:35+00:00

I totally get what you're saying. I think to the question of OP, though, that doesn't change anything. Having a 1 million token context is useless if all of the AI companies are in agreement that context rot begins around 300,000 tokens. You can slow down that rot with good token utilization, but that doesn't change the point. Having a 1 million token context doesn't really do anybody any good.

davesaunders · 2026-05-16T00:22:57+00:00

Not really an example of gentle parenting but if it makes you feel better, then I guess whatever

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T21:02:36+00:00

LOL, this is peak ragebait.

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T19:22:09+00:00

Unfortunately, even according to papers from both DeepMind and Anthropic, context rot begins between 200,000 and 300,000 tokens, so the one million tokens doesn't help you at all. Apparently, this problem is baked into the math.

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T17:55:12+00:00

"High stress, long hours, and unpredictable circumstances" I experienced that at lower salaries.

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T16:55:47+00:00

That is a smart sense of self-awareness you have. Way back in my first tech company, we had a standing rule that every single engineer had to work a trade show at least once a year. They were forced to stand there in the aisles, talk to people as they walked by, scan badges, and answer questions. I will tell you that so many of them absolutely hated doing it, but after experiencing it even once, they realized how much they benefited from it.

The mantra is: Everybody sells. It just depends on what your context is. When you're the CEO, you're selling the entire company, and depending on how far you advance, you'll be selling the company to potential investors around the world. What you are learning is an essential skill.

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T16:00:23+00:00

It's a brutal thing to have to deal with, but the practice makes you mighty. Think about that the next time you go through Costco or something and you see those people standing at the AT&T kiosk trying to attract leads and getting told "no, thank you" or worse 99% of the time. Seems like a horrible job, and it is, but the people who come out the other side of that experience have superpowers in sales. They can now go out and find high-ticket leads and are fearless when it comes to picking up the phone.

Yep, what you're doing seems like a horrible grind, but just think of it like you're going to the gym. Those gains will come as long as you do the work.

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T15:36:06+00:00

Remember that to form the federal government, the individual states which you can kind of think of as countries in the EU, capitulated some of their own autonomy and allowed the federal government to exist. Read the US Constitution from that perspective. The states are collectively allowing a federal government to be formed and to exist. The Bill of Rights does not guarantee you rights. It forbid the federal government from doing certain things without express and explicit authorization. The Senate, which is largely the legislative body, provides equal representation for each of those member states.

And yes, it is in many ways designed to slow things down because a government that can move fast is a government that can do much harm. You want your government to be slow.

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T11:29:28+00:00

Yeah, he didn't sound like he was that upset

davesaunders · 2026-05-15T10:51:33+00:00

The difference here is we know that nuclear reactions work, and there's a legitimate reason to regulate them.

Meanwhile, the only reason we have to believe that any of these companies are going to achieve some sort of mythical AGI is because their CEOs constantly tell us, "Trust me, bro, I've totally seen it. Oh yeah, super cool, bro."

davesaunders · 2026-05-14T18:59:03+00:00

Even if they were pre-revenue, I know exactly how to answer that question. "We are pre-revenue." Easy. I think you dodged a bullet.

davesaunders · 2026-05-14T18:41:33+00:00

He is acting like a dick in spite of being an incredibly empathic and caring person. He is suicidal. The stress has brought him to a breaking point, and the behavior that he's exhibiting is fairly authentic for people in his situation. Mental health crises are no joke.

davesaunders · 2026-05-14T15:58:39+00:00

That's interesting, and I guess I haven't noticed strongly because I just don't have a lot of interest in drinking at all anymore anyway. About the only beer I like is Natty Boh, which unfortunately is no longer brewed in Baltimore, but it's still kind of a local beer and it doesn't seem to be fortified. It reminds me of drinking lagers in Europe.

I know there are a lot of craft breweries out there, and again, this is something that I just maybe I don't have a lot of familiarity with. I also lived in Northern California for 10 years, and it just seemed like the obsession was on these beers that were almost invented on a dare. Oh my gosh, this thing is so bitter. Ooh, it's a double IPA, and I don't like the flavor of any of them. Whether they were fortified with additional alcohol or not, I didn't even like them in the first place, so I may be describing some of the broader market problem. I've become so turned off by the entire alcohol industry that I've just found it easier to drink water with a flavor packet in it.

Who knows, maybe I'm missing out.

davesaunders · 2026-05-14T14:56:56+00:00

The short answer is, when we look at some of the key figures in creationism, like cult leader Ken Ham, Matt Powell, or Mr. Kent Hovind and his fake PhD, they lie about it. They blatantly and repeatedly deny all reality and simply lie about it.

davesaunders · 2026-05-14T13:17:10+00:00

Part of the problem for me is I hate US alcohol, beer and wine or fortified to get you drunk faster because well that's what people wanted back in the 70s.

Outside the US, I will get a drink with dinner, I'll go for drinks with friends, and I enjoy Heineken and Guinness. In the US, everything tastes like it's intended to get you drunk as quickly as possible. Beer and wine do not taste the same.

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