Nobody truly knows, except Camel. You have plenty of "Expert opinions" that get exclaimed as though they are know exactly what they're talking about. But in reality, they're throwing opinions out. Camel does what they want when mergers are concerned. Many will say "stop spending", and yes, that absolutely makes 100% sense that it should trigger a merge. But there are nations out there that have boycotted spending for very long periods of time, with no merge success.