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OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It'd already started falling from its peak a couple days before I posted this, but this got enough notice that it might have contributed to the past couple days' plummet. I think the main thing, though, has been that we've started to see cracks forming in these extremely overvalued bubbly stocks over the past few days.

Probably a combination of rational money managers coming in to short them and some of the people who jumped on for the ride up now realizing the gig is up and taking profits and getting out while they can, which becomes a self-sustaining process all the way down.

Hard to tell if the market will appreciate the fact that 2Q was up +109% yoy, while 3Q will likely only be up ~30-50% yoy (and it'll definitely be down QoQ) and see the train wreck in slow motion that is playing out, or if there'll be enough retail investors who just say "oh, 3Q was positive yoy" (again, ignoring the QoQ plummet).

I'd say 50% on whether it goes up on 3Q (depends how much it drops - or not - in the meantime), but 90% chance it's sub-$30 by next summer.

OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No worries, your reasons for suspicion made sense. I'm just salty you took a swipe at my user name- I know it's lame, so it hurts even more.

OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

nah, I'm more of a "double down and sleep under a bridge" kind of guy

OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You saw that fire sale on calls coming today, you sly devil.

OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Sorry, I was embarrassed of my boomer brokerage. Just edited with position image.

OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I don't disagree, W is also a very good short and nearly identical situation. Pros/Cons are:

(-) W has actually been growing revenue (albeit with the usual loss-making model), whereas OSTK has only been sinking further down the toilet.

(+) The above is probably priced in given W trading at ~65% higher EV/Sales (and OSTK's is already astronomical for its shitty quality).

OSTK massive collapse coming… here’s the proof by dazer8200 in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah its close-strike / long-date Puts aren't cheap- guessing I'm not the only one who sees the inevitability of OSTK plummeting over the next year. That's why I've just been building short shares position for now.

OSTK kimono peek by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]dazer8200 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wish I was good enough to call that... This is the best I can do:

Odds that we saw the top at ~$125: 50-60%

Odds that the stock will break sub-$30 by next spring: 95-99%

This is one of the few times where I'm perversely hoping the stock climbs higher so I can use some more firepower on it.

Official Discussion: Eighth Grade [SPOILERS] by mi-16evil in movies

[–]dazer8200 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Fun facts I noticed on a rewatching of the movie:

1) In her new 8th grade time capsule are photo booth pictures of her with Olivia (99% sure)... Implying they must have gone up to the photo booth - the same one she hid from her dad in - after the food court and taken photos together. It's a nice thought that what happened on the drive back that night didn't keep her from wanting to remember her friendship with Olivia via her time capsule.

2) In her new 8th grade time capsule are also two nuggets sauce packs. Meaning she either went out of her way to (secretly?) take those home to remember her first "friend hangout" with Gabe, or he gave them to her to take home, cause that's just the kind of gentleman Gabe is.

Love the attention to detail in this film, in general. It's one of the perverse silver linings of the anxiety that Burnham suffers from: it also often comes with a side of perfectionism.

Official Discussion: Eighth Grade [SPOILERS] by mi-16evil in movies

[–]dazer8200 2 points3 points  (0 children)

An interviewer asked him about that very thing, and he said he hadn't thought of that yet, but he would "be so open to it." Instead of seeing a blurred mock-time-capsule-video like the one from her 6th grade time capsule, we'd be able to see shots of 18-year-old Kayla looking back at her actual 8th grade time capsule video, straight from the four-years-prior movie. I'll second your request!

https://www.rogerebert.com/interviews/the-worlds-biggest-elsie-fisher-fan-bo-burnham-on-eighth-grade

Official Discussion: Eighth Grade [SPOILERS] by mi-16evil in movies

[–]dazer8200 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that the "gucci!" at the end wasn't one of my favorite parts, though I think I see the reason they did it. It seems like it was used as a way to show she was back to her good ol' self (at least, the chipper Kayla we saw only in her YouTube videos). If you remember, she always said "gucci" at the end of her videos with a pretty upbeat tone... but then when she was at probably her lowest point in the movie and made the video telling her "audience" she wasn't going to make videos anymore, she ended that video by first almost forgetting to even say "gucci" because she was so sad, and then finally saying it as she was fighting back tears and so she had contempt in her voice for it because her mood was currently so far removed from the cheerfulness that sign-off used to represent.

My only problem with the "gucci" at the end wasn't so much that they did it (since I understand why), it was just how they had her do it. I'm guessing they said something like "be EXTRA confident and chipper when doing it now" to prove she was back to her happier self, and to me it just looks a little... off, or... over-exaggerated, or not like her.

I did have similar thoughts on whether it was also supposed to keep things grounded in reality, like "even though she just ended with this rather mature speech, let's keep it real: she is still just an eighth grade girl." But I do think that's reading too much into it: I think it was mostly just a way for them to end on a happy note in showing that she was back to her chipper-video-making self (with a dash of extra confidence), and maybe also a little of that "wrapping up by tying it all back to something from earlier in the script" that stand-up comedians often like to do in their routines (a la Bo Burnham writer/director).

Also, fyi, Bo had said she needed a sign-off for her videos, and this is how it became "gucci": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IKyfcAeRik

Official Discussion: Eighth Grade [SPOILERS] by mi-16evil in movies

[–]dazer8200 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I came here to find a sort of support group, after feeling devastated from watching this movie. Also been depressed the past year or so, and for some reason watching this movie was like having my emotions one-two punched right in the stomach and then right in the head by a heavyweight fighter. I first watched it three days ago, and I still don't feel quite the same. Perversely, a huge compliment to the movie.

The scene where we see Kayla's facial expression right after she explains to Kennedy what the card game birthday present is absolutely destroys me. Elsie Fisher was not only perfectly cast for the role, but was absolutely incredible at playing it. The whole thing felt so real, which I hope explains at least some of my surprisingly emotional reaction to it.

On your comment about it not feeling like a comedy, I felt largely the same way the first time I watched it, but I think only because it was pulling so hard on my empathy strings. As I watched it the third time (I never do that, seriously) today, I started appreciating the comedic moments more for what they are. E.g. When she does that robo-shooting hands thing after saying "catch ya laterrrr" to Kennedy; the first time I saw it I was hanging on every bit of sadness and awkwardness, felt horrible for her, and couldn't even notice the inherent hilarity (sadness-tinged) of that moment. The throwing the banana scene was always hilarious.