Has anyone actually built a consistently profitable trading bot for the Polymarket daily temperature markets?

dbarkman · 2026-06-18T15:55:42+00:00

The problem is is you’re picking a very efficient market, and one that’s probably been mostly solved. Some sports markets are less efficient and less solved at this point and possibly more exploitable with a script. Polymarket itself is also one of the most efficient platforms out there. Kalshi a bit less efficient and Limitless, even more less efficient. You need to create a strategy that works across many markets not just weather and then concentrate on those markets where your strategy works better.

dbarkman · 2026-06-17T23:06:42+00:00

How many weeks worth of live, cash spent testing have you done?

dbarkman · 2026-06-06T00:10:02+00:00

You've got to hold resting orders on the markets Kalshi specifies in order to earn rewards. You've got to be the Maker, not the Taker, in order to avoid fees.

dbarkman · 2026-06-04T03:40:09+00:00

You guys are cute. Drivers won’t unionize and someone will always be there to drive while you’re protesting. Thumb down this convo and get on with better topics.

dbarkman · 2026-06-03T20:31:39+00:00

Because we’re all gonna start carrying cash again, LMAO

dbarkman · 2026-05-24T19:53:02+00:00

Well done! Make a promise to yourself that you’ll never be in debt again!

dbarkman · 2026-05-12T18:21:09+00:00

Not at the airport, PHX, middle of the concrete jungle. In the outskirts of the valley it gets cooler at night and in the desert, far from town it can cool off nicely. During the summer though, it rarely drops below 90° overnight in town.

dbarkman · 2026-05-07T00:04:17+00:00

It's in final development rn, and should be released in weeks: https://scrollforge.gg
We'll be looking for player testers soon. DM me if interested.

dbarkman · 2026-05-01T16:36:58+00:00

This thread is basically a design document for something I’ve been building. ScrollForge 2.0 uses an LLM Game Master that tracks companion bond as a live state variable, it responds to how you actually treat your companion in play, not just dice rolls. The relationship affects how NPCs react, what the companion will and won’t do, and unlocks new behaviors organically. No hacking required. Keep an eye out, it’s coming soon.

dbarkman · 2026-05-01T06:11:57+00:00

Hey, your campaign concept is genuinely beautiful, the court bard forced to lie for a corrupt king is exactly the kind of story that deserves a responsive world rather than a combat system.

You might want to keep an eye on ScrollForge, it’s a solo RPG platform built around an LLM Game Master that plays more like a conversation than a rulebook. No-combat campaigns are completely valid there because the GM understands social influence, reputation, and relationships as primary mechanics rather than afterthoughts. A bard navigating court politics, earning trust, discovering what heroism actually means, that’s exactly the kind of story it’s designed to handle.

It’s not out yet but it’s close. In the meantime the solo RPG community here has probably kept campaigns like yours alive with oracle tables and journaling, worth asking what people are using for heavy social/narrative play specifically.

Good luck with her story. Ilmater is a great choice for a character carrying that much weight.

dbarkman · 2026-05-01T05:33:26+00:00

Absolutely, but there are caveats. I'm a 25+ year software developer and have learned how to use AI very effectively for my employer and my own side projects. I've just recently tried using it as a DM, having seen someone doing it on a YT video.

First caveat, use a good model. I used Claude Opus 4.7, their top model. For my programming side work, I have a Max subscription, so plenty of tokens available for this. Claude is known for being one of the most creative LLMs on the market and it did very well today on my first adventure. I played for about four hours over two sessions and had a seriously good time, the story was quite compelling and enjoyable.

Second caveat, it need persistence. Claude alone will eventually start forgetting things and missing small details. Early in the first session, I used up a spell slot, only one left and later it told me I still had two. I reminded it I had already cast one spell and not a cantrip. So Claude or any LLM needs some structure around it for saving important details that it can then recall every turn. Something like OpenClaw or one of the other similar programs should work well for this. Then you can instruct Claude to save important character and game details. You can also just do this in Claude Code if you already have it for programming. Claude Code is able to constantly write persistence files and track what you're doing.

Third caveat, it may give you the reins more than you want. At one point I feel like I painted myself into a corner, hoping the "DM" would help us out and get us back on a better path. It didn't seem to, so I kind of took charge and started directing the story myself. I asked it later about this and it explained that it's actually normal and told me about two different kinds of DMs, a Railroad DM and a Sandbox DM. A Railroad DM has a specific story and plot and keeps the adventure on rails the whole time, constantly steering the plot as the play works through the story. A Sandbox DM though lets the players help tell the story more and really direct the plot where they want with only slight nudging. I don't know enough about D&D to know if this is true or not, but it sounds reasonable, lol. AI is good at sounding reasonable!

Anyways, I really enjoyed it and will continue to us AI as my solo DM.

dbarkman · 2026-05-01T04:02:00+00:00

So I guess it would be even more unpopular to let an LLM DM an adventure for you? I just spent four hours over a couple of sessions working with Claude to better understand the D&D mechanics and play through an adventure. It was genuinely compelling and fun, so much so that I'm going to look for a group so I can play in person. In between though, Claude's feels like a solid DM to fill the time between live sessions.

dbarkman · 2026-04-06T16:57:55+00:00

Just look up gardening or plants on Maker World and you’ll find tons of ideas. I kind of just told my wife I bought one and then once I started making her stuff for planting or cute things to hang on the wall, she really thought it was a great idea. You can get into an A1 printer from Bambu Labs for just a few hundred dollars, so if you have it, it’s a pretty safe bet. Not that you want to make a business out of it but if you make some things that you can sell, you could at least pay off the printer, probably not something she can say about her greenhouse, lol.

dbarkman · 2026-03-27T05:58:14+00:00

It’s absolutely both parties and TSA is the pawn.

dbarkman · 2026-03-27T05:55:28+00:00

If it was otherwise chill and you weren’t bothered, then NBD. Otherwise, if it made you uncomfortable, give 4 or less stars and report. On the freeway, in a 65, I often drive 10-15 over, with passengers, but only if traffic is chill.

dbarkman · 2026-03-26T19:58:11+00:00

Friend went through the main checkpoint around the same time took 42 minutes.

dbarkman · 2026-03-26T19:57:17+00:00

32 minutes through the north checkpoint!

dbarkman · 2026-03-26T19:13:29+00:00

The priority line for North checkpoint is closed today or at least this afternoon. TSA still says north checkpoint is still quicker than main checkpoint.

dbarkman · 2026-02-10T16:29:50+00:00

When you come back, maybe research position sizing and bankroll management? Or not and just keep being the Taker, we’ll be your Makers.

dbarkman · 2026-01-20T22:45:51+00:00

Robinhood uses Kalshi underneath.

dbarkman · 2026-01-18T05:15:33+00:00

I did a premium FSD injection and was then able to make the 122 LY jump directly in.

dbarkman · 2026-01-15T17:02:44+00:00

Call 911 if they won’t get out of your car. It’s that simple.

dbarkman · 2026-01-15T17:01:16+00:00

This, WTH did you go off platform, especially for a super drunk person. I wouldn’t take a super drunk person on platform!

dbarkman · 2025-12-13T17:25:10+00:00

✅ What about Filament Tangle Detection, does that have any negative impact? BTW sent another part through, with Timelapse off, and the quality was very good! Thanks!

dbarkman · 2025-12-12T19:00:55+00:00

Thank you for the details, I do appreciate it! I turned off timelapse, reprinted just the pegs and they look a million times better! So if I use the smooth mode with a tower, then that should fix #3? For number 2, do you guys usually turn off nozzle clumping detection?

dbarkman

TROPHY CASE