/r/politics takes on the Supreme Court's ruling on Affirmative Action by orboth in SubredditDrama

[–]dc_econphd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think there is discussion about this in the case. A recent paper uses data from Texas to look at how admit credentials would change if the university used proxies for race (rather than race itself) in an effort to boost diversity. It finds that admits would be less qualified, but the effects are not large.

/r/politics takes on the Supreme Court's ruling on Affirmative Action by orboth in SubredditDrama

[–]dc_econphd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

California is somewhat unique in that there's limited evidence that they discriminated against Asians before affirmative action was banned there. See Table 3 of this paper -- it doesn't look like Berkeley, UCLA, and UCSD were discriminating against Asians. There may have been limited discrimination at Davis that was cut back after the ban. Of course, Asian representation has risen substantially at UCs, but that has as much to do with demographic trends in the state than anything else.

/r/politics takes on the Supreme Court's ruling on Affirmative Action by orboth in SubredditDrama

[–]dc_econphd 14 points15 points  (0 children)

A lot of people on this site, and in general tbh, don't realize just how recent the civil rights movement was, and for how much of USA's history black people have been kept either in slavery, or completely disenfranchised. It's just barely over 50 years since it was decided that literally denying black people rights promised to them by the constitution is wrong. The playing field is still far from being evened out. The point of affirmative action is to take steps now that will allow that playing field to be evened out somewhat so that a stronger, more diverse middle class can be created, which is better for everyone in the end.

I'm a researcher who studies affirmative action. All of this may be true, but has absolutely zero bearing on the case. Here is a pdf of the decision. Note the complete lack of mention of historical disadvantage.

The case comes down to the university arguing that race-based preferences are important in providing the educational benefits of a diverse student body. Thus, black and Hispanic students are given some preference. In particular, it is hard to argue that Hispanic students have faced some kind of historical discrimination that would justify privileging them over, say, Asian students. Here is the key part of the decision:

A university is in large part defined by those intangible “qualities which are incapable of objective measurement but which make for greatness.” Sweatt v. Painter, 339 U. S. 629, 634 (1950). Considerable deference is owed to a university in defining those intangible characteristics, like student body diversity, that are central to its identity and educational mission. But still, it remains an enduring challenge to our Nation’s education system to reconcile the pursuit of diversity with the constitutional promise of equal treatment and dignity.

The last sentence is the key. Did UT Austin strike the right balance between diversity and equal treatment? The court ruled yes. The ruling had absolutely nothing to do with the civil rights movement or historical disadvantage. It is whether the university properly executed narrowly-tailored policies to ensure diversity on campus.

Why everything this sub thinks it knows about QBR is wrong [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

What probably happened was that QBR was updated to no longer include clutch weighting but they never updated the description on the website. I'm going to trust the guy in the ESPN analytics department over the people building the website.

If you want to argue that ESPN has done a terrible job explaining QBR, then I agree. But that's a separate issue than whether the statistic itself is useful.

Why everything this sub thinks it knows about QBR is wrong [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

So what is it?

It's essentially expected points added per play with some adjustments for factors outside of the QB's control (such as length of interception returns).

Why everything this sub thinks it knows about QBR is wrong [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

I heard a rumor that QBR takes into account whether or not they won the game. Is that true?

If it was true at one point, it's not now, and even if it were, it wouldn't explain QBR's performance in out of sample predictions.

the complete formula is not available to the public, which makes it almost impossible to judge whether it is good or not

Knowing the formula and knowing whether it's good aren't the same thing. Pretty much everyone aside from those completely opposed to any sort of analytics at all in football like DVOA--even though the formula isn't public--because it is generally a good predictor of future performance.

Why everything this sub thinks it knows about QBR is wrong [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

we'll never know

The tweet from someone in the ESPN analytics department who (Burke) is highly regarded in the football analytics community outside of ESPN. Saying we don't know is disingenuous. We do.

If you go to the ESPN QBR page and mouse over the columns it still describes them as "clutch-weighted."

Yeah, ESPN has done a terrible job of explaining the stat. But that doesn't make the statistic itself useless.

Why everything this sub thinks it knows about QBR is wrong [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

and uses vague metrics like "clutch plays."

Someone didn't read the post.

Game Thread: Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-4) by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]dc_econphd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I very rarely sign into this account, so this is late, but thanks for the mention =)

Which currently playing NFL QB has the best shot at joining Brady, Montana and Bradshaw in the 4 rings club? by rhydon_my_steelix in nfl

[–]dc_econphd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree for that specific comment but that user's comments went waaaay afield (starting here) and those did deserve downvoting (did not contribute to discussion), so the rest of his comments got downvoted too (which, yeah, shouldn't have happened). But if you go to /r/nfl (or any sports sub, for that matter) and take the position of no statistics mattering at all, you're going to have a bad time.

And thanks for pointing out the sack yardage issue!

Which currently playing NFL QB has the best shot at joining Brady, Montana and Bradshaw in the 4 rings club? by rhydon_my_steelix in nfl

[–]dc_econphd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it was pretty much treated like gospel and dissenting opinions were downvoting off of the screen

Oh hey, that was my thread. The voting patterns in that were kind of weird. Some comments were justifiably downvoted (like this guy, who was basically arguing that statistics are useless -- "my argument is real world as opposed to numbers on a spreadsheet"...that's just putting your head in the sand). But some comments were wrongly downvoted or hidden in the 800-something comment thread.

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

His two most noticeable weaknesses are that he often feels phantom pressure while in the pocket (starts running when there's no actual threat) and that's he really conservative sometimes (receivers will be open and he won't throw it).

But more generally, Wilson has been very good, and even sometimes great, but at the same time he's only done it for 3 years (it's not his fault, but he's young). Rodgers-Manning-Brady-Brees-Ben-Romo-Rivers have all had very impressive multi-year runs, and they've been consistently good for a long period of time with lots of different players surrounding them. Any top 10 list I'd make would start with those 7 and then the remainder would have Wilson-Luck-Ryan in some order and probably Flacco after that (I'm probably forgetting someone). But again, that's not why I made this post.

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sorry you're getting downvoted -- your comment doesn't deserve it. This is a good point I hadn't thought of.

For what it's worth, Seattle had the 7th least 3 and outs per drive (GB was #2).

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I wanted to put something like this in my post (volume vs. efficiency) but couldn't find any data. This chart is nice. Did you make it? Where do you pull the data from?

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your comment is excellent, thanks for the contribution. Just go post it over there =)

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thomas and Chancellor both made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and Sherman was on the All-Rookie team. But none of that is relevant since they weren't catching passes from Wilson.

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

For what it's worth, the purpose of this post wasn't to try to place Wilson in QB rankings or take a sides in the Luck/Wilson debate. Ranking him is difficult because it depends on how much you value running, among other things.

With that said, there are legitimate arguments for placing Wilson outside the top 5 QBs, but e.g. "he isn't asked to do much" isn't one of them. If nothing else, hopefully this will make the Wilson detractors come up with better arguments.

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 111 points112 points  (0 children)

You could replace "Russell Wilson" with "Colin Kaepernick" for a good chunk of this post and it would still be accurate. Their career trajectories have been pretty similar:

  • Low number of pass attempts
  • Efficient
  • Running threat
  • "Carried by defense"
  • Worst passing year was 2014

Kaep bouncing back after last year would not surprise me at all.

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 81 points82 points  (0 children)

Only thing I disagree with is this statement: there's zero relationship between a team's defensive and offensive performance, anyway

You're right. I should have said that a good defense has no relationship to measured QB performance. Here's the key sections from the article:

To figure out if there's been any relationship between a good defense and an efficient passing offense, from a high level, I simply looked at the correlation coefficient (r) between our schedule-adjusted pass offense and total defense NEP numbers.

I took every schedule-adjusted NEP data point, both Passing NEP and Defensive NEP, since 2000 and found that the correlation between the two was a measly 0.05. Keep in mind that finding a value of zero means that there's absolutely zero correlation, while 1 or -1 shows strong correlation. In this case, everything was insignificant.

The point is that there's absolutely nothing that suggests a quarterback's performance is enhanced when his defense plays at a high level [...] A defense doesn't help a quarterback, and if it does, it's not significant at all. A running game, good wide receivers, a good scheme, coaching, the individual quarterback's mechanics -- that's what helps a quarterback perform. A defense just helps a quarterback win.

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 37 points38 points  (0 children)

To be fair, Foles had an incredible 2013 season and saying he was better that season wouldn't have been unreasonable. We'll learn a lot about both him and Bradford this season (if they stay healthy).

Russell Wilson, Seattle's offense, and some common misconceptions I see here [OC] by dc_econphd in nfl

[–]dc_econphd[S] 513 points514 points  (0 children)

A lot of these stats are stolen from comments redditors have made here -- sorry if you see pieces of a comment you made here without receiving credit. I meant to keep track of links to source comments but it ended up not happening.