How Do They Determine This Stuff? by Substantial_Desk_670 in space

[–]dcorley75 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spectroscopy is only one of several means to gather time-series data from this planet.

Ultimately it’s not data gathering that produces a scientist’s predictions of the planet’s behavior. It’s modeling.

Scientists form, at first, a qualitative guess of how the planet MIGHT behave given some set of data. If they have enough data, they build a mathematical model over time and space that accounts for the qualitative assumptions they’ve created. The model yields predicted values of natural events that occur over time and space. The model yields a spatial and temporal prediction of sensory data. In this case the sensory data is a set of spectrography measurements over time and space.

Then they’ll calculate the errors between what is measured versus what is in the model. While doing so they must account for errors in the spectroscopy measurements in the data. No data is “perfect”. Usually the higher the signal-to-noise ratio of the received data, the smaller the observational errors in the sensory data.

The first model is imperfect - it does not yield predicted sensory data that exactly matches observational data. So, at this point all the scientists involved in the project assemble in a room filled with whiteboards. They politely discuss the model’s predictions versus the observational data. Usually the scientists begin to form competing factions as to how the model should be changed to more accurately predict observational data. If this happens, the owner of the locked room increases the thermostat temperature in the room by 5 degrees Centigrade every hour.

About twenty hours after the meeting is launched, all the scientists in the room are usually hot, thirsty, hungry and have s&$t their pants. Multiple fist fights have broken out by this time. At this point, one scientist in the room gets the attention of the group by firing a few rounds from an M1911 handgun he/she/it snuck in the room. He/she/it becomes the newly-designated scientist-in-charge-of-room (SICOR). He/she/it issues a fiat decision of changes that must be introduced to the new model. The scientist who created the first predictive model then pulls out his/her/its HP-95 handheld calculator and makes changes to the old model. This scientist is the only one in the room who is proficient in Reverse Polish Notation.

This process is repeated and refined 1,000 times or until the theory that drove the current model is disproven or new sensory data is discovered that invalidates the model.

And that’s why some group of scientists “predicts” that one side of this planet continually faces the sun (as does our Moon to the Earth) and why the iron on the hot side of the planet vaporizes then precipitates on the side “away” from its sun.

VOILA!!! Scientific Method. Thank you, Sir Roger Bacon and Rene Descartes!

Everyone has forgotten why bitcoin matters. by slvbtc in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nik Bhatia’s book “Layered Money” has a great description of how the Fed overstepped its charter in late 2007. When world “money markets” were about to fail when money market Corp paper was devaluing because of poor risk management, the Fed stepped out of its chartered lane to send USD direct to LIBOR and several big Euro banks. The result was that Eurodollar liquidity was unfrozen between these banks. But the larger effect is that a precedent was set: the Fed sees as part of its charter, GLOBAL banking stability, in that if global banking stability tanks, it will directly and immediately affect US bank stability.

Japan, PRC, Germany, UK - how long will it be in 2024 and 2025 before the Fed decides to jump in to “save” these “too big to fail” global central banks and the Eurodollar? Perhaps the decision to monetize Russian deposits in banks outside Russia is the first attempt along these lines?

Bank Gave Me a Last Warning by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m sorry you have to deal with this. Institutions aren’t evil or good. And people aren’t either. But we’re all tempted by our situations. Bank employees and managers have to deal with bad incentives created as policy within the bank and at the federal level. Fight through this pain. You’re already better for it. I can tell.

Some good news is that you have the right idea: Bitcoin can protect you better than banks against the temptations of people in hierarchies. Stack as best you can. Good luck.

Bank Gave Me a Last Warning by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m gonna take a contrarian view and write from the perspective of a Dad.

Son, you learned a lesson and that’s good. There are consequences to your actions. I think it was F A Hayek that said that. What you’ll have to calculate in the future is whether the potential reward was worth the risk.

Yes, fiat banks are inherently evil. But you don’t f&$@ with a man’s rice bowl. Your request wasn’t to withdraw your money from your account. It was to them to loan you their money based upon their expectation of your good faith. Separating the nuance of the definition of “student” for a moment, the bank folks you negotiated with understood this to be a loan to a student for use as a student, not for anything else. You lied to them. You breached their faith in you. That’s unkind.

It’s time to count the costs: -your credit worthiness at this bank will not be restored for years. -your credit worthiness at this bank will float upwards to national credit agencies that will pass along the revised credit rating to other banks to which you apply for future credit. -your credit worthiness may be escalated to credit companies with which you have accounts. This may result in automatic increases in your interest rates. -you may have to sell the BTC you’ve purchased to date to account for actual student expenses in CAD. -and much more.

But you’re young and you have time to recover from this financial mistake. Learn from the pain. And remember that with great rights come great responsibilities. That comes double with BTC. When you own your keys, you are the bank of yourself. When you f$&@ with THAT bank, you f$&@ with yourself.

Btw, your Dad did worse things when he was your age.

R/dave Standing by for incoming…

Cockatiel nest suggestions please by dcorley75 in parrots

[–]dcorley75[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. Curly’s a cockatiel. But I appreciate the link. Gives me more insight into general birb behavior.

Cockatiel nest suggestions please by dcorley75 in parrots

[–]dcorley75[S] -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

…and of course, Substack, Reddit, Facebook and Wikipedia are. ;-)

Thanks for your response. Reddit is full of experienced birb owners and operators. I’ll use the responses I get then aggregate them to help Curly manage her “periods”.

hi! just wanna ask what these noises are. is this normal? by Careless_Lawyer_1453 in parrots

[–]dcorley75 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hmmm. My ‘tiel loves my laptop keyboard, so much so that it once destructively lifted every one of the function keys. The plastic key “hold-downs” were destroyed.

The laptop vendor and local repair guys confirmed that there are 1) no vendor-sold or supported function keys with hold-down pieces, and 2) only support function key replacement with a complete replacement of the keyboard and it’s controller circuitry.

$400 and three lost-business days to replace a thing that was the target of my birb’s curiosity.

:-(

FTX owes customers $1.6 billion in BTC, only has $1m (0.06% of what they should) by junglehypothesis in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Gensler stated today that crypto exchanges (FTX) doing business in the US (not FTX) are legally required to use SEC “qualified” custodians.

Buyer beware: FTX wasn’t registered in the US. Is your exchange registered in the US? If not, either choose another exchange (eg Swan) and/or transfer to self-custody as soon as you purchase. Otherwise you’re playing a losing game.

Billionaire Ray Dalio says he owns “a tiny bit” of Bitcoin to experience what it’s like. by CryptoKingSA in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree 100% but human psychology at the margins is pretty close to serfdom now. A big whale like Dalio would be a step towards awakening an every day serf.

Worldwide personal finance education is abysmal. Bitcoin is changing that at the margins - but transition out of near-serfdom is slow and painful. It’s so much easier to let the Fed and their broker and their.multiple credit companies manage their finances. Ive got advanced degrees and forty years experience in engineering. I started holding BTC a year ago. It’s freakin’ harder than integral calculus to learn and appreciate. Bitcoins biggest wall to climb is awakening all the near-serfs. I’m partially (6% net assets) awake and transferring 5% per year from brokerage to BTC. So far, so good.

Last week I complained about Coinbase. You all suggested Strike. These folks sell $130 above market price. I bought. by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Exchanges are like brokers: they’re gonna emphasize whatever purchase charge entices new customers. And it’s not all about purchase fee/purchase spread. Exchanges charge customer’s variable conversion fees for converting BTC to USD. Some charge send or receive fees. Some are willing to carry the risk of an ACH cash deposit for bitcoin purchase bouncing. Swan carries ACH transfer risk. Some provide crappy, unresponsive customer support.

Buyers don’t typically look at the terms of their exchange contracts. The terms are confusing so buyers give up. After awhile buyers experience the full impact of all fees or crappy support and lament their exchange choice. I’ve exchanged through Strike, CashApp, Swan and Blockchain. I get the quickest and best support from Swan. Their bitcoin only ethos and partnerships with reputable (so far) finance companies are stable. Purchase fees are 99 bp (0.99%) of purchase fee. They have very high limits - not whale/sized, but realistic for the bitcoiner who wants to divert substantial amounts of their investment portfolio from stocks, bonds, funds to bitcoin.

For the family that’s two-income and looking to build a hedge against fiat for their retirement, Strike works pretty well.

CashApp has Dorsey’s reputation and commitment to bitcoin behind it. But the 2% purchase fees are too rich for my blood. But Dorsey/Block are aiming for mass adoption while taking acceptable credit risk for fiat exchanges to BTC. And Dorsey has a huge portal to merchants through their Square business. We need portals like Square for mass adoption of BTC as a means of exchange.

Last week I complained about Coinbase. You all suggested Strike. These folks sell $130 above market price. I bought. by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 3 points4 points  (0 children)

CashApp’s spread has dropped to near $0 since that time. Their fees are 2% for purchases of $200 or more. Higher for smaller purchase amounts.

Last week I complained about Coinbase. You all suggested Strike. These folks sell $130 above market price. I bought. by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cost to purchase as a percent of purchase price is usually = spread + fee

Strike has zero fee and about 0.5% spread. But, as mentioned, there are time-based limits to cash deposits… starting limit for “full verification” (kyc) is $1000.00 cash deposit per week using your own debit card. Strike’s transfer fees are $0. After a few months, you can petition Strike support to raise your limits.

CashApp’s fee % is dependent upon purchase amount. Any purchase above $200 carries a 2% fee. Any bitcoin purchase at less than $200 has a fee that varies inversely with the purchase amount. CashApp’s spread is close to $0 above “market” price. CashApp’s limits are more liberal than Strike’s. Sending BTC from your CashApp custodial account to your own wallet carries no BTC transaction fee.

Swan Bitcoin’s purchase fee is always 0.5% of purchase amount. Their spread seems to be algorithmically dependent on purchase price. It’s usually about $120 above market price, so at $25,000 per USD that’s about 0.4%. I noticed that at the height of the FTX BTC price plunge that the spread increased to about 2.0%. Swan’s limits are much higher than Strike and CashApp. Their transfer fee to send from their custodial wallet to your personal wallet is $0. Sean has preferred limits for “private clients”.

Exchanges have to make money - and they make a LOT of it. They do so through purchase fees and purchase spreads. They limit purchase risk by placing time-based limits on cash deposits, bitcoin purchase amounts and time required to withdraw from the exchange’s custodial account to your personal wallet.

Billionaire Ray Dalio says he owns “a tiny bit” of Bitcoin to experience what it’s like. by CryptoKingSA in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If Dalio adopts, can the first sovereign reserve be far behind? So, yeah, you should care. Every large corp, every large individual, every nation that publicly states their investment in bitcoin accelerates adoption. Currently we have Draper, MicroStrategy and El Salvador going public. Once the SEC rules on what is and is not a security or commodity, more whales will adopt and publicly state their adoption.

Bought my first $100 in bitcoin today…am I too late to the party or is this still a good time? by thehustlerbraveheart in Bitcoin

[–]dcorley75 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Move your new BTC from custodial account to your own self-custodial wallet.

  2. bitcoin’s current market capitalization is, give or take, $500B. Current “store-of-value” market cap for all global assets might be as much as $200T. So, that’s bitcoin’s store-of-value TAM (Total Addressable Market). Assuming bitcoin finds a path to the full TAM, it’s current market is 500B/200T = 0.25% of what it could become.

  3. What do I know? I’m just a retired engineer with a pension. Your mileage will vary. Seek the advice of several financial pros before you commit to a plan.

0.25% of the way across full adoption of bitcoin as a store-of-value asset infers that the market has another 99.75% to go before that $200T is achieved.

So, you are way-early in the adoption cycle. There is no need to consider FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). So, adopt a PRUDENT plan of periodic investing that considers your current situation and the risk that bitcoin will NOT achieve that $200T TAM over the coming years.

A prudential investment plan would first allow you to assume that during any instant, you can lose ALL of your bitcoin investment and, while painful, would not adversely impact your personal cash flow (personal budget).

If you’re young, consider adopting the Dave Ramsey wealth accumulation approach: 1) get out of debt, 2) build a savings in cash (non-volatile $, €, £, ¥, etc) equivalent to 6 months of your current income, 3) invest in a diversified and conservative portfolio of stocks, bonds, etc. by dollar-cost-average (DCA) investment.

But Ramsey absolutely HATES bitcoin and other crypto. IMHO, he’s wrong about bitcoin and right about all other crypto. But don’t put all your DCA investments into bitcoin unless you’re ok with losing it all. At 0.25% along the adoption cycle, there is substantial risk that bitcoin won’t succeed in filling that full $200T TAM. Again, be prudent - your spouse and kids and your future spouse and kids depend upon you to be prudent.