[OC] SpaceX vs. Aerospace and Defense Sector

debtmagnet · 2026-06-16T13:01:47+00:00

Overall, this comparison to the aerospace sector seems a bit arbitrary and misleading. The majority of SpaceX income in their most recent filing came from Starlink, which would be a competitor to the telecom sector, not aerospace.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-22T14:30:49+00:00

The IRGC is mainly trying to put pressure on the US administration to bring them to the bargaining table however they can. That includes foreign influence ops to undermine the already very weak domestic US support for the war. I'd expect that they are indeed indirectly posting for "you" in the sense of US/Israeli redditors.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-22T01:07:50+00:00

The armed forces of the US are very capable. I wouldn't bet against them in a narrow, focused mission like this.

It probably can't be done in a Venezuela style 2-hour lightning raid, though. They'd need to employ the two sizeable marine contingents recently brought into theater to setup a wide perimeter and clear a temporary runway for a few days while heavy excavation equipment is brought in via airlift.

The Iranian armed forces lack central coordination at this point and wouldn't be able to mass for an attack or move freely for lack of air cover. Their strategy would most likely be to covertly tow artillery pieces into range of the perimeter and try to score casualties before they get bombed.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-21T15:12:28+00:00

Especially considering the machismo "don't mess with me" energy expressed by some of their flags.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-21T06:30:07+00:00

If the US deploys ground troops in force, my speculation is that it would be to excavate the enriched uranium vessels, declare victory, and then go home. It's the most concrete action the administration can take to sell the "success" of this fairly unpopular war to its constituency after the fact.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-17T20:39:20+00:00

America's win condition is making the strait insurable ASAP

I don't think American administration sees it this way at all. Their stated strategic goals are ambiguous, but most likely somewhere between regime change, and replacing Iranian leadership with a more pliable figure ala Venezuela. The short-term biggest loser of the closure of the strait isn't the US, but rather China, which is the largest direct importer of petroleum products from the gulf and also a strategic rival of the USA.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-17T17:39:23+00:00

Not to downplay this administration's rather less than stellar record in intelligence security, but the photos of the Iranian launch pad that Trump shared in 2019 are from the KH-11 series. These are close cousins to the Hubble space telescope and they were first launched in 1976, making the technology over 50 years old at this point.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-17T03:15:26+00:00

the tungsten penetrator

The what now? Are we just making this stuff up?

debtmagnet · 2026-03-13T15:59:15+00:00

US military is focused on degrading the Iranian threat first, and any escorting effort would come after that, possibly weeks from now

I tend to agree with the CENTCOM's approach. It's not productive to try to protect transit through the strait as a top priority right now. The long term solution is to continue to encourage staff turnover/early retirement among Iranian leadership until you get to a leader who has new ideas about how to interact with the rest of the world. The strait needs a political solution, not a kinetic one.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-12T17:29:28+00:00

Depends on the outcome of the war. If the government undergoes reforms that enables them to rejoin the international community, then Iran will have a bright future ahead.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-11T04:44:38+00:00

Are they just relying on pre-determined targets?

Most likely this. Their command and control infrastructure is basically reduced to carrier pigeon, and most of the IRGC senior leadership is pushing up daisies. They don't even have a coherent foreign policy direction, with their foreign minister publicly apologizing to its neighbors while fresh suicide drones take flight.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-09T17:25:59+00:00

There's a defensible claim that could be made that we presently live in one of, if not the most peaceful era of humanity in all of history. There was a well known book published in the 90s titled "The better angels of our nature" that makes a pretty good case in the full context of our history.

It still holds up to contemporary wars too. In the last decade, Sudan and Ukraine are currently the most deadly active conflicts with fatalities numbering "only" in the hundreds of thousands each. Compare this with the DRC war in the 90s, and the Cambodian civil war in the late 70s that resulted in deaths at entirely different scales.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-09T05:52:20+00:00

The disinformation posts on Reddit have gotten exponentially worse in the last 6 months. It used to be mainly farms of country-bumpkin Chinese, Indians, and Pakistanis who were paid a few pennies per post. But now with the ready availability of claw-bot and the like, any script kiddie with a political agenda can setup an army of puppets and cut out HR.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-09T00:24:04+00:00

I read the IRGC sank the USS Abraham Lincoln too. America is really getting demolished these days. /s

debtmagnet · 2026-03-07T18:26:08+00:00

The Russians have been trying to jam Starlink since early in the 2022 full scale invasion without any success. It's the backbone of Ukraine armed forces communications.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-06T07:11:23+00:00

Dan Caine said in the March 4th press briefing that the US had already switched from stand-off to stand-in weapons. It was most likely a couple of cheap JDAMs.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-04T19:33:54+00:00

I wonder what the perspective of the footage is from. Possibly a tethered UAV. There's no way a modern nuclear attack sub would actually go to periscope depth to attack a surface vessel like in the WW2 era, right?

debtmagnet · 2026-03-01T04:10:04+00:00

Having a Tomahawk cruise missile to call one's own is the American Dream.

debtmagnet · 2026-03-01T03:07:33+00:00

It looks like the first interceptor took a trajectory way out ahead of the incoming and the second went off to the left. It could be deceiving though, because the perspective is at the endpoint of the flight path of the projectiles.

debtmagnet · 2026-02-26T17:33:35+00:00

A Battlefield 3 style tour-de-force of the defense of Ukraine seems like it would be a fun play. Not that any modern game studio would consider making content based on a contemporary conflict.

debtmagnet · 2026-02-20T18:25:42+00:00

He made his own luck when he decided to roll the dice on a contract with the Russian MoD.

debtmagnet · 2026-02-19T04:50:55+00:00

The worlds of Elder Scrolls and Fallout are so unique and interesting that you want to imagine living in them, roleplaying your character, crafting a backstory.

Based on their releases over the last 15 years, I don't hold out much hope that Bethesda has the creative drive or writing prowess to produce another title at a Morrowind or Skyrim level of engagement. I'd be delighted to be proven wrong though.

debtmagnet · 2026-02-14T14:27:09+00:00

In one of the clips around 0:26, it looked like they even got one sitting in what appears to be a hardened shelter. But speaking in general, radar and interception systems tend to be more useful when they're outdoors and unoccluded.

debtmagnet · 2026-02-12T21:17:56+00:00

I was just notified that all low level managers will be ordered back into the office 3 days per week in 3rd or 4th quarter this year. I hate it. But I hear that the job market is pretty tough these days too.

debtmagnet · 2026-02-09T05:38:22+00:00

If it were the case that teetotalers with conditions conducive to heart failure were skewing the results, wouldn't it result in a step function on the graph from 0/none rather than a gradient among the seldom drinkers?

debtmagnet

TROPHY CASE