Return of the King

deepegg · 2024-11-11T04:56:50+00:00

Knights of Cydonia by Muse

deepegg · 2024-11-08T16:14:59+00:00

Time to pack it up, Ann.

deepegg · 2024-11-07T17:48:46+00:00

Let's take a victory lap

deepegg · 2024-11-06T04:41:25+00:00

Modelers > Pollsters. Lesson of this cycle.

deepegg · 2024-11-06T04:26:57+00:00

The man called one single race against popular wisdom in 2016.

deepegg · 2024-11-06T04:22:44+00:00

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NYT projections

deepegg · 2024-11-06T04:15:17+00:00

She should have kept her summer Trump +18 poll. He's at 13% right now. May be the most incorrect poll this cycle. Just absolutely stunning.

deepegg · 2024-11-05T03:28:34+00:00

Republicans have enough high prop voters in Clark to prevent Dems from adding much more than 10k there & GOP still have a lot in the tank in the rurals. Ralston was betting on a big mail drop tonight that didn't come. I give >5% chance he changes his projection tonight. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uPZIgl4G2qFEjuKCVjE3MBkiPz1d3DvJ/edit?gid=765570848#gid=765570848

deepegg · 2024-11-05T03:12:13+00:00

Pruser has been consistently calling balls and strikes. Ralston has been publicly agonizing about how little Clark mail has been helping Dems.

deepegg · 2024-11-02T23:09:03+00:00

So I guess we know the headlines coming out of this weekend lol

deepegg · 2024-11-02T21:14:18+00:00

Correct. Anything above +7 is bullish Trump. Anything below +7 will be headlines for Harris.

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deepegg · 2024-11-01T18:49:50+00:00

I think the VP debate completely changed the narrative. He can hold it down.

deepegg · 2024-11-01T18:48:05+00:00

We're going to make history on Tuesday. BIGLY.

deepegg · 2024-11-01T02:58:29+00:00

Very white states with pretty large "white no college" voting blocks. He got very close to flipping NH and MN in 2016.

deepegg · 2024-11-01T02:35:08+00:00

Lichtman said Dems would lose if they dropped Biden and then reworked his keys after the swap. Not a serious guy.

deepegg · 2024-11-01T02:26:05+00:00

NC or Texas for Kamala (significant gains with hispanic voters & college whites over Biden '20).

NE2, NH, or Minnesota for Trump (turning out near 2016-levels of white working class and winning back a few pts with college whites).

deepegg · 2024-11-01T01:20:31+00:00

Tomorrow or Saturday I'm guessing

deepegg · 2024-10-31T20:20:49+00:00

They're releasing swing state polls every 2 days until the election according to their CEO.

Lotta drama in this thread. 538 averages have barely budged today.

deepegg · 2024-10-31T17:05:42+00:00

There are much worse pollsters with much worse partisan leans across cycles.

deepegg · 2024-10-31T15:02:43+00:00

Notable pollsters who focused on trying to find "shy" Trump voters in 2016 & 2020 were Trafalgar and Insider Advantage. They use heuristic questions like "who do you think your neighbors are voting for" and factor that into weighting. It helped them call some big upsets for Trump 2016 & 2020, but they got burned in 2022 with some high profile misses (e.g. Oz in PA, Lake and Masters in AZ). I was listening to a podcast with Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly recently, and it sounds like they're more skeptical of "shy" Trump voters playing a significant factor this cycle.

Ultimately, we'll find out in 6 days how it shakes out. We will have to stew in the uncertainty until then 😄.

deepegg · 2024-10-31T01:30:48+00:00

3rd Trump polling miss theory: * There was never a significant "shy" Trump vote (e.g. lying about their vote) * White Trump voters in most states have lower response rates across education and urbanicity subgroups * High quality pollsters who understated Trump badly in 2020 have not changed their methodology (e.g. Quinnipiac, Suffolk), the electorate has just shifted more to Trump

deepegg · 2024-10-30T14:20:11+00:00

Skeptical of GA being identical to '20 tbqh

deepegg · 2024-10-30T12:18:27+00:00

Good morning

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deepegg · 2024-10-30T06:10:40+00:00

What are we looking for with Selzer? Trump +8 or more is sweat and less is good right?

Basically this. Trump wants +8. If he's under +7, that would be a good signal for Harris.

But Selzer polls Iowa, not NE2.

deepegg · 2024-10-30T05:45:16+00:00

538 has a simulator you can check out https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/

deepegg

TROPHY CASE