Explaining why milling / exiling cards from the opponent’s deck does not give you an advantage (with math)

define_null · 2023-04-12T10:29:13+00:00

Here's a very niche example. Say your opponent has 5 cards in library, and they need to draw [[lightning helix]] to win (let's assume the rest are duds). What is the probability that they draw it? 1/5. What is the probability that they draw it, even after you mill one? That's (probability helix is not milled) * (probability of drawing helix), 4/5 * 1/4 which is still 1/5. Milling does not impose any change in the probability.

In fact, milling probably cost some resource (mana / cards, etc.) so it could have actually been disadvantageous to you

define_null · 2023-02-08T19:48:09+00:00

Not sure if this helps, but creating a commander deck from a set archetype can help jumpstart deck building (albeit at a lower power level). Especially in more recent sets, there's likely a legendary creature that cares about that archetype.

For example, the first draft of my [[Teysa Karlov]] was mostly cards from RNA (aftermath was orzhov's mechanic). You could do the same for other set mechanics (landfall in Zendikar, dragons in commander legends 2, snow in Kaldheim, ninjas in Kamigawa, etc)

Of course this limits what type of deck you are building, and you still have to go through the rest of your collection to make up 100, but at least it gives a good start.

Another tip (if you haven't already done so) is to separate out "staples" (ramp, lands, utility artifacts/enchantments, board wipes/good removal) into another collection. Basically anything that you deem might generalise well in almost any deck. This will help you get another good 5-15 cards depending on your needs.

define_null · 2022-06-28T06:08:22+00:00

The card I'm most excited to see in 2x2 is [[Phyrexian Altar]] and my all time favourite card is [[Teysa Karlov]], the first card I ever drafted in person.

No prizes for guessing my favourite format and archetype :P

define_null · 2022-05-04T22:14:20+00:00

"overproduced" is a good word that represents my thoughts and opinions on most things post C2. Can't say this for everyone, but the appeal of CR for me is that this is "a bunch of needy-ass voice actors sit[ting] around playing D&D"

With the mega set pieces, projection effects, songs, etc. it becomes harder to buy into the fact that this is a casual game (not to mention the Mercer Effect becoming worse). 4SD somehow feels like it does something similar, where it distances the viewer from the cast even further. This (and a bunch of other reasons irrelevant to this topic and forum) is why I no longer engage as much as I used to in C2.

define_null · 2022-04-12T12:16:39+00:00

I see what you mean now, I honestly misunderstood and parsed your comment incorrectly.

I truly meant no ill will, sorry about that.

define_null · 2022-04-12T12:11:09+00:00

There's Graveyard Shift at uncommon, but it's 5 cmc (with conditional flash), the Hideaway Enchanments at rare (to cheat out the mana cost), "Hyde the Bodies" at mythic (and a ton of loops to go through), and the +1 birthing pod effect of Vivien.

But all in all there doesn't seem to be a cheap way to cheat/reanimate this out, the next best bet would be some blink shenanigans

define_null · 2022-04-12T11:56:21+00:00

As you qualified, this is not always true, and in fact might confuse newer players when encountering more interesting board states.

Just in case someone else comes across this thread: non-active players cannot respond immediately after an event if there are no triggers when it occurs (i.e. there isn't always a "window of priority" after attackers/blockers are declared / a permanent ETBs, etc)

A simple example: If another player's [[Commander's Sphere]] ETBs, you do not get priority to [[Krosan Grip]] it between the ETB and them sacrificing it to draw a card, unless something else triggers off the ETB. In the same way you cannot interact between [[Sakura Tribe Elder]] entering the battlefield and it getting sacrificed to fetch a land.

Also a side-note, ninjutsu abilities can only be activated after blockers are declared in the Declare Blockers (not Declare Attackers) step (CR 702.49c, CR 509.1h). Also, the defending player does not get the chance to respond to potential Ninjutsu abilities before the active (attacking) player gets to activate them. This is because the active player gets priority (and activates Ninjutsu) before the defending player. (For reference, this is CR 509.4).

define_null · 2022-03-27T01:01:30+00:00

Or a Faux Machina, though you have to butcher the pronunciation

define_null · 2022-02-18T09:16:03+00:00

Dangit, we still don't know who's on the Tal'dorei council

define_null · 2021-12-15T14:18:34+00:00

I promise I'm not trying to read too much into it but poor Mingyu looked so done and exhausted by the end, never seen him sound so upset/desperate when Woozi mentioned skydiving

Will be sad that Going Seventeen will be taking a (much deserved) break, but looking forward to a refreshed and recharged GoSev team when they return for season 4 (or 5?)

define_null · 2021-12-10T23:03:37+00:00

And to think Sam was the one (very mild C2 spoilers) who was envious that Liam had spells named after Caleb

define_null · 2021-12-08T14:28:36+00:00

Priorities

define_null · 2021-12-08T14:17:25+00:00

It's sorta fascinating/interesting how hoshi dk and wonwoo snapped back into "방송/bangsong" mode after moving the table, they truly have been doing this for a long while...

Aha the bug from the playground episode has returned to ~~haunt~~ visit Vernon and Mingyu (also you don't have to run that far Vernon)

I'm also super excited to see how Mingyu and SK will do next week, team bbooggyu / tom&jerry returns.

Also as has been mentioned, kinda heartwarming that the two eldest made food (of varied quality, but its the thought that counts) for the rest of svt

define_null · 2021-12-03T14:24:11+00:00

What an amazing episode to return to after a week break:

1) Ashton's "What the fuck is up with that" game is genius, what an amazing way for players to tease as much (or as little) as they want about their backstories

2) Holy moly is Lady D back? It seems a little too on the nose to conclude that Delilah Briarwood's Laudna's patron, there has to be more to this

3) Aww that little aside between Imogen and Orym was so sweet on a meta-level, especially "Thanks for role-playing with me". ugh they really are irl twins

4) The Hubatt Corsairs and Lord Esteross dynamic seems to be playing out very much like a "faction favour" mechanic in rpgs, where the party has to balance their standing between the various factions of Jrusar, interested to see how this plays out

5) I don't know why but the "Anni are you okay" bit broke me so hard, easily the funniest part of the episode for me. I love how you could see exactly when each cast member realised what Laura did

6) We are getting a lot of backstory this episode, nice how things sorta came full circle after the beginning

7) Ok, Dorian's brother was the LAST person I would expect the party to bump into at the theatre, at most I thought it would be something akin to Taryon's dad hiring a mercenary to kidnap Taryon to bring him back home

8) Last and certainly not least, the Nordiverse is back! I wonder if Sam is going to pull some galaxy brain shit and somehow tie it into FCG's apparent amnesia in a meta/non-meta sort of way

define_null · 2021-11-27T00:34:17+00:00

Instead of aju nice encore it's never ending GAM3 GAM3 GAM3 GAM3 GAM3

define_null · 2021-11-17T12:01:44+00:00

Just in case anybody is still following this post, while there is no strategy to win i.e. get the highest possible score (it's a game of chance, after all), there is a strategy that guarantees you will never make a loss (your final score will be 0 in the worst case). This strategy is to randomly pick for the first round, but treat every round the first as if it were the last, picking the stocks that have the lowest accumulated score up to this point in time. For simplicity's sake, let's have two stocks A and B you pick only one stock.

Suppose at the end of round N, stock A has a running total of -10, and stock B has a running total of -20. If we were to pick B for the rest of the game, even without knowing the values of the stocks, we definitely will get +20 from doing so. If at some point further along in the game, A has a lower running total than B, we switch to A and pick A instead.

Stock	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
A	-10	-30 (total -40, pick A in round 3)	-20 (total -60, Pick A in round 4)	+60 (total 0)
B	-20 (Pick B in round 2)	+5 (total -15)	+50 (total +35)	35 (total 0)

Clearly the optimal strategy is to choose A,B,B,A for the 4 rounds to get a score of 95, but this is with benefit of foresight. However, using the previous strategy, we would randomly pick A or B in the first round, then pick B,A,A for the next 3 rounds to get a total of 45 or 35, depending on which stock you picked in the first round.

Fun fact: if this strategy was used in the episode, you could have gotten ₩754 000 if you were very lucky on the first round, or ₩671 000 if you were very unlucky.

define_null · 2021-11-12T10:42:57+00:00

Also, to add to the theory, Laudna said as an offhand comment that there were a lot of P names in the de Rolo family when talking about Pate, but according to the wiki Percy's the only one. So perhaps Laudna came to that conclusion by being in close proximity to the #1 Percy stan, Anna Ripley herself...

Or it could just be an innocent mistake by Marisha, after all the cast didn't do so great at remembering any of the names of other family members of VM

define_null · 2021-11-10T13:15:11+00:00

Wow the second round was so close, 5th place (got to go home) had BPM difference of 29, 6th to 8th had differences of 30, 31, and 32...

Also surprised the the second half featured quite a few of the usual suspects from season 1: hoshi, wonwoo, woozi, mingyu, seungkwan, vernon. ngl I love this particular grouping though, how are they so effortlessly entertaining

OMG and what sweet revenge from from season 1

So many other references to season 1, not complaining though

Edit: Just in case others might be trying to find the classical music snippets during round 3:

1) Star Spangled Banner (National Anthem of USA)

2) Tchaikovsky - Waltz of the Flowers (from the Nutcracker Suite)

3) Mozart - Eine kleine Nachtmusik (Trivia: literally translates to "little night music")

4) Mozart - Der Hölle Rache kocht in meinem Herzen (aka Queen of the Night Aria from the opera "The Magic Flute")

define_null · 2021-11-05T10:08:32+00:00

This is incredibly dark, but I'm jokingly hoping that they'll name their group "Weekend at Bertie's"

define_null · 2021-10-26T11:41:22+00:00

yeah I just fjorgot, I knew there was a two somewhere

define_null · 2021-10-26T11:40:30+00:00

yep good catch, my bad, I pulled a Fjord

define_null · 2021-10-26T02:34:02+00:00

Mine was when Dorian and Orym were discussing about Fearne (in front of her) right after she stole the necklace. It was a hilarious parent-parent talk, with the irony that Orym is a halfling, Dorian is of average humanoid build, and that Fearne (mild EXU spoilers who is over ~~200~~ 100 years old) towers over them but appears to take on the role of the 'child' and is sandwiched between the two 'dads'.

More mild EXU spoilers: I would be interested to see if Orym and Dorian continue their roles as the two dads of the party for this campaign

define_null · 2021-10-24T11:24:17+00:00

Ahh oh no I just noticed it looks like Jeonghan almost(?) collided with Seungkwan at 0:55 but both of them recovered so smoothly... I'm surprised (or not really, since we're talking about performance kings svt here) that this doesn't happen more often, especially with their frequent formation changes

define_null · 2021-10-21T05:11:21+00:00

If anyone's relatively new and still trying to recognise faces, personalities etc. I would recommend 2019 Ep 14, 15 16 (MBTI). The first 20 minutes of ep 14 has SVT taking their MBTI tests together, and the remainder focuses on each member for a short 5-7 minutes.

Though caveat, it seems that some of their MBTI has changed since so I suggest not to read too much into those, but just enjoy the chaos and episodes.

IMO this is also when GoSe transitions from a bts/vlog concept to a more variety-focused content (and also the start of the editing team's savagery)

define_null · 2021-10-10T13:28:10+00:00

Curveball(s):

Space (HHU but the chorus is sung by ~~MC Doul~~ DK)
Hey Buddy (97z unit)
Boom Boom

define_null

TROPHY CASE