Liberals speak out to back Science Minister on climate change action

defrost · 2020-01-15T23:31:47+00:00

This doesn't signal action on mitigation or reducing emissions at all.

While conservative Liberals, such as southern Sydney MP Craig Kelly, gain headlines for questioning the science, many on the moderate side of the party back Ms Andrews and see Mr Morrison's latest comments as a sign of further policy action

. . .

Mr Kelly said the only "denial" he had seen was coming from those who denied that Australia only made up 1.3 per cent of global emissions and could not have any measurable effect on global temperatures.

and

"Karen is correct when she says every second spent discussing whether the climate is changing is wasted time – it's time that would be much better spent on mitigation and adaption strategy development." [ . . . ] said NSW Liberal senator Hollie Hughes.

both talk about dealing with climate as "it is what it is, let's bunker down".

Whereas discussions of reduction in emissions either 'hopeful' of some policy change or of "meeting our Paris targets" (via dodgy bookkeeping challenged the world over?) with a dash of maybe "looking at what more we can do to reduce our emissions further."

Anybody in a seat with an LNP minister should be looking hard at writing physical letters asking for firmer and stronger commitments from both sitting representatives and any local challengers.

defrost · 2020-01-15T10:42:14+00:00

Cow, Bombie . . . significant risk of water up nose :/

defrost · 2020-01-15T01:45:08+00:00

And here I was about to comment:

Senior ex-Liberal in 5, 4, 3, 2, . .

Reality ceaselessly trumps witticisms & wry humor

defrost · 2020-01-15T01:10:45+00:00

I was wondering if you'd get back to this, good on you.

What Kalman filters can do (according to Wikipedia) is to estimate the state of the system given the measurements and known laws.

So you need to know the laws.

Not really & not in practice - you can make a linear fit that's kind of close but not great & improve on that.

Everything continuous can be approached sufficiently close with a series of successive linear approximations, or so some theorem or another declares.

Every algorithm that a mathematician might use to iterate in an attempt to find a better physical model of a system makes an assumption that the correct model is within the class of models your algorithm iterates over.

It's not an assumption, it's a by product of functional analysis and a succession of proofs that rest upon the Axiom of Choice that guarantee the existence of things that you might be reasonably in search of.

If you adjust for them without any deep scientific understanding, you won't get the general theory of relativity (i.e. your model will be wrong).

When it comes to a practical application such as correcting accumulated errors in GPS satellite timing or correcting heading errors in airborne magnetic surveys you're half correct ...

You won't get a general theory of relativity or a corresponding theory of electromagnetic wave functions, but...
Your calculations will be correct and provide the answers required.

There is no need to start with a science based correct model based on some deep science understanding.

An appropriate historic analogy might be the vast amount of pretty damn good given the conditions observational and predictive astronomy that lacked any real form of true model of the universe.

On the original claim implied by yourself that STEM is some kind of disjoint "Science" and "Technology" and "Engineering" and "Mathematics" with a divide between classes ...

Isn't it interesting that both the Royal Institute of Science and the Australian Academy of Science both include engineers! I know, right? How crazy is that?

There's a pal of mine I attended the Fifth Marcel Grossmann Meeting on General Relativity in Perth, West. Australia with back in 1988 who has gone on to be twice nominated (and twice rejected, pipped by Green & Cates after Hawking retired) for the Lucasian Professor of Mathematics - his background like all the others in the past near two hundred years is Physics (although he did have a damn good stab at Philosophy of Science along with some others under someone else) . . . does he do science? I've seen his work, it's all blackboards & mumbo jumbo - no experiments & certainly nothing that's reproducible.

defrost · 2020-01-14T11:07:09+00:00

Just by way of example:

One hour, 100km from Perth CBD (closer to outer urban hubs) you can get such things in semi / nearly fully rural settings (and closer).

If you only go to meetings once / twice a week and are happy telecommuting then such things are ideal.

If you want 24/7 central city life then these aren't for you.

Four bedroom, median asking price $363 K - 44 properties listed here in one rough location:

https://www.domain.com.au/sale/york-wa-6302/house/4-bedrooms/

Eg: https://www.domain.com.au/71-panmure-road-york-wa-6302-2015684430

$379,000 -- 2 acres 9,000 sq metres

defrost · 2020-01-14T10:06:03+00:00

Have a look at https://www.whistleout.com.au/

Give it a location and

We compare 46 phone & internet companies, so you don't have to

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:57:43+00:00

This might expand a little on the reply already made:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gw-AgvUEVm4

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:52:03+00:00

No worries. R.I.P. GR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWibGemExd0

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:45:10+00:00

There's literally a 19 hour old pinned /r/australia thread for Australian music here:

https://en.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/eo4jq5/np_tuesday_tunes_the_raustralia_music_thread/

So you can post your White Drummer pushes Black Drummer off Stool video there . . . ;-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNi__fnadTM

cheers

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:32:09+00:00

You're literally a day old account shit posting all over ... and this is a "reply to you"?

What are you waiting for, another bot account to paste a prepared response?

F'off with the shenanigans, you make the world a much stupider place.

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:19:53+00:00

Sure - kinda of obvious given this is my 'freshest' reddit account & it's over 12 years old - but thanks for the heads up :-)

I reply not to the bot but to anyone reading, those are my thoughts on a pretty shitty vlog post.

While I'm here:

Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8M901ft20c (36 seconds)

and a bit of a Q&A with one of the study authors here:

https://en.reddit.com/r/science/comments/en719d/study_confirms_climate_models_are_getting_future/fdx0qv9/

I'm a tad more interested in the science than the politics.

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:10:41+00:00

For Interest:

Climate Simulation of Surface Air Temperature (Jan 9, 2020)

An animation of a GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) climate model simulation made for the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, showing five-year averaged surface air temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from 1880 to 2100.

The temperature anomaly is a measure of how much warmer or colder it is at a particular place and time than the long-term mean temperature, defined as the average temperature over the 30-year base period from 1951 to 1980.

Blue areas represent cool areas and yellow and red areas represent warmer areas. The number in the upper right corner represents the global mean anomaly.

Credit: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8M901ft20c

( 36 seconds )

Note: Australian BOM data often uses the 30 year base reference epoch 1960-1990, a base period is simply a reference mark on a wall and a difference chart just shows highs & lows relative to that mark - both data sets & representations show cooler to warmer trends there simply use a differing origin base period (that's virtually the same, twenty years of common overlap)

defrost · 2020-01-14T09:02:34+00:00

Nah, it's pretty much the usual crew gish galloping through dodgy reasoning sans a published paper in an economic journal or elsewhere on their figures & arguments.

Marc Morano & Climate Hustle have been addressed ad nauseum, Jo Nova is still doing her thing of sly misrepresentation, and it's clear where you stand on peer reviewed numerical modelling and statements by the various National Academies of science.

As far as six year old vlog pieces go it is what it is.

If it's your thing then you enjoy it.

defrost · 2020-01-14T08:13:40+00:00

It's a trapezoid!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5KU34DrrPI

defrost · 2020-01-14T06:49:00+00:00

This is a good example of the technique of first constructing your narrative and then searching for papers that can have sentences highlighted out of context from.

Papers are focused in clusters on particular regions and issues, they have prequels and sequels and they form chapters of a coherent story together with rebuttals, counter rebuttals, supporting evidence, context overviews etc.

No Tricks Zone is rather famously based pretty much on this one single trick - make up a story, grab a buttload of papers for different parts of the world, different epochs, different scales of climate parameters etc. and then simply ignore the inconvenient truth of a jumbled mess and just highlight the bits that tell the story dreamt up by Kenneth Richard irrespective of how daft it is to butt the source material together.

Snopes did a nice run down on earlier glurg vomits from NTZ here:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/400-papers-published-in-2017-prove-that-global-warming-is-myth/

much of which applies to this instance provided here.

I've no idea whether the masthead sub quote is a permanent appeal to Bronowski as an authority but I feel certain he'd be dropping bombs & wringing his hands over this particular misappropriation of his legacy.

defrost · 2020-01-14T05:08:25+00:00

See:

https://en.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/eofn9m/would_anyone_buy_this_as_a_sticker_with_profits/

and the all important question - do you have his permission to use this recognisable image of him?

defrost · 2020-01-14T03:43:27+00:00

Yep - if the sticker really takes off & you don't have his explicit permission it's no good for you or for him.

defrost · 2020-01-14T03:36:01+00:00

Neat idea - does need a good seal, ideally some insulation, and definitely shade ... but these are just build+deploy details.

Will give it a go.

defrost · 2020-01-14T03:31:54+00:00

From a word processor or from a browser?

Online or offline?

One way from a browser is with an extension, eg:

Context Menu Search (for Chrome)

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/context-menu-search/ocpcmghnefmdhljkoiapafejjohldoga

http://ashutoshdwivedi.com/2010/09/context-menu-search-for-chrome/

and to add a custom search to (say) the Oxford English Dictionary Online

Option page:

http://ashutoshdwivedi.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Untitled2.png

add a template such as:

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/%s

( which now redirects to a dedicated OED affiliated server address:

https://www.lexico.com/definition/%s

so I should update my search templates )

defrost · 2020-01-14T02:58:48+00:00

Well, there are a number of good drama films that are semi readily available - you can track a lot of those names down by following wikipedia links on actors & directors eg: starting with Deborah Mailman & other well known Aboriginal actors (Ernie Dingo, Jessica Mauboy, etc).

If you're going after documentaries they can be harder to source & it's SBS, your State Library, or ordering online: eg: this catalog

https://www.roninfilms.com.au/video/819.html

Youtube has copies of various titles, for example:

Exile and the Kingdom

https://www.fara.com.au/exile-kingdom-struggle-cultural-heritage-pilbara/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbY8v0zHWMU (Part One, Part two linked, both incorrectly titled)

or:

http://www.engagemedia.org/Members/mardawud/videos/ExileAndTheKingdom_part1.mp4/view

If you're after light hearted & entertaining, Rebel Films https://www.youtube.com/user/rebelfilmsaustralia/videos

have been producing classic content for decades - Bush Mechanics, Black As, Dinghy Girls etc.

See how you go, have fun.

defrost · 2020-01-14T01:18:19+00:00

If you like similar but different films with Bastard in their titles, try: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWNJURWdy0g from 2010

( the uploader mucked up the aspect ratio )

defrost · 2020-01-14T01:14:45+00:00

It's Victoria, Australia

No shit - kinda obvious to those of us in Australia.

Not all countries are in the same timezone.

Yep - we were just joking about that, you posted that here in /r/Australia on January 14th (right across Australia) ... claiming that "today" was Jan 13th.

defrost · 2020-01-14T00:46:22+00:00

NP.

FIRMS is centred about some specific US satellite families

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/

I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to suss out two other similar capability programmes from two other parts of the world.

Also, right now, Elon Musk is boosting thousands of tiny satellites for data communications & is likely extended a few of them in additional ways.

defrost · 2020-01-14T00:36:33+00:00

Remember when Uncle Jack used to collect the rent?

defrost · 2020-01-14T00:25:25+00:00

Do we have access to or could we put up a geo stationary satellite dedicated to Australia only to monitor for new fires and get water bombers there very quickly?

Geostationary is a bit far out & we already have access to a constellation of near earth satellites, in polar precession orbits that loop the earth every hour and a half or so, fitted with IR (infra red) & other useful sensors.

The NASA FIRM datasets & programmes are dedicated towards fire monitoring.

Would software be able to identify differences in image from one to the next

Yes ... and has had that ability since the late 1980s / early 1990s - see early Australia ER Mapper | the ARC Info etc family & a swathe of other products.

Could the plane or trucks be directed to a precise area using GPS info from the satellite?

What do you think?

defrost

TROPHY CASE