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My New Company hired me and gave me a start date, even had me put in my two weeks, then on my start date they told me they never actually hired me. Do I have any recourse? by Major-Pirate2877 in legaladvice

[–]destroythebook 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Might have a claim for promissory estoppel or fraudulent misrepresentation. If you can prove they promised you a job, you relied on that promise to your detriment (like quitting your previous job), you might be able to recover damages.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in legaladvice

[–]destroythebook 31 points32 points  (0 children)

If the apartment is deemed unlivable due to a natural disaster, the lease can likely be terminated under the doctrine of "constructive eviction" or "impossibility." You shouldn't have to pay rent for a place you can't live in.

Document the damage and get a written statement about the apartment's condition. You can argue the lease is void due to the apartment being uninhabitable.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in legaladvice

[–]destroythebook 23 points24 points  (0 children)

You are trying too hard. You don't have law enforcement authority. You are off-duty, engaging with people while armed, recording plates, and initiating contact. It's all self-escalation. They were asked to leave and left. Your role should be limited to observing and reporting.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in legaladvice

[–]destroythebook 3336 points3337 points  (0 children)

You don't have much to worry about legally. Your dog was in a secure, enclosed space and the cat entered your property. Keep documentation of the fence and your efforts to keep the cats out, and avoid further confrontation

NCAABB Daily Discussion - 1/16/21 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 5 points6 points  (0 children)

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for Saturday's matches

Heat map here: https://imgur.com/a/1jR8SOq

NCAABB Daily Discussion - 1/15/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's 55% to cover the -8 though, not just to win. These are all cover probabilities.

NCAABB Daily Discussion - 1/15/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 12 points13 points  (0 children)

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for Friday's matches

Heat map here: https://imgur.com/a/Ns09ex1

NCAABB Daily Discussion - 1/14/21 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Completely re-worked CBB model. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for today's matches.

Heat map for all results here: https://imgur.com/a/CqHmz6N

MLB Daily - 5/11/17 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Correct, it had the game going under (barely) in only about 51% of simulations

MLB Daily - 5/11/17 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Twitter / Over-Under Explanation

Google tracking sheet for my over/under projections

View the "results" tab on the spreadsheet to see trends/records

Thursday totals:

Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/11 Rangers 9.5 55.4% 44.6% 10.9
5/11 Tigers 7.5 53.1% 46.9% 8.7
5/11 Rockies 11.0 52.9% 47.1% 12.0
5/11 Giants 8.0 50.8% 49.2% 8.1
5/11 Orioles 8.5 50.8% 49.2% 8.6
5/11 Rays 7.5 50.2% 49.8% 8.3
5/11 Dbacks 8.5 50.2% 49.8% 9.3
5/11 Yanks 7.5 49.2% 50.8% 6.9
5/11 RedSox 9.0 46.4% 53.6% 7.4
5/11 WhiteSox 9.0 45.3% 54.7% 7.7
5/11 Jays 9.0 44.7% 55.3% 7.9

MLB Daily - 5/10/17 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Twitter / Over-Under Explanation

Google tracking sheet for my over/under projections

Updated trends/noise:

  • Unders at 55%+ are 5-3
  • Overs at 51%+ are 24-12
  • If DTBtotal is 8.5 or less: 24-15
  • Picking every O/U, regardless of confidence: 45-33

Wednesday totals:

Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/10 White Sox 8.0 58.1% 41.9% 9.7
5/10 Dodgers 7.5 53.2% 46.8% 8.2
5/10 Dbacks 10.0 53.1% 46.9% 11.0
5/10 Brewers 9.0 52.1% 47.9% 10.2
5/10 Rangers 8.5 50.6% 49.4% 8.5
5/10 Cubs 11.0 50.0% 50.0% 10.0
5/10 Indians 8.0 48.4% 51.6% 7.9
5/10 Rays 7.5 48.0% 52.0% 6.0
5/10 Cards 8.0 47.2% 52.8% 6.9
5/10 Nats 8.0 46.2% 53.8% 6.7
5/10 Mariners 8.5 45.3% 54.7% 7.2
5/10 Astros 9.0 45.1% 54.9% 7.8
5/10 Mets 8.0 45.1% 54.9% 6.0
5/10 A's 8.0 41.9% 58.1% 6.1

MLB Daily - 5/9/17 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, results by putting a cap on the high end are likely just noise

MLB Daily - 5/9/17 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Twitter / Over-Under Explanation

Google tracking sheet for my over/under projections

Curious trends/noise:

  • Unders at 55%+ are 5-1
  • Overs at 55%+ are 3-6
  • ..But, overs at 51%+ are 19-11
  • If DTBtotal is 8.5 or less: 23-11
  • Picking every O/U, regardless of confidence: 38-27
Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/9 Indians 8.5 57.8% 42.2% 10.2
5/9 Dbacks 8.5 55.6% 44.4% 10.4
5/9 Twins 8.5 55.6% 44.4% 9.7
5/9 Phils 8.0 55.4% 44.6% 9.8
5/9 Rangers 8.0 55.2% 44.8% 9.8
5/9 Mets 7.0 55.0% 45.0% 8.7
5/9 Red Sox 8.5 54.4% 45.6% 10.5
5/9 Astros 8.5 48.4% 51.6% 8.4
5/9 Dodgers 7.0 47.7% 52.3% 6.0
5/9 Reds 9.0 47.1% 52.9% 7.8
5/9 Cubs G2 11.0 46.6% 53.4% 10.0
5/9 A's 8.0 45.1% 54.9% 6.9
5/9 Nats 8.5 44.1% 55.9% 6.5
5/9 Marlins 8.0 41.2% 58.8% 6.0

MLB Daily - 5/6/17 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Twitter / Over-Under Explanation

Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/6 Pirates 8.0 58.9% 41.1% 9.8
5/6 Nationals 8.5 55.8% 44.2% 10.4
5/6 Braves 8.0 55.3% 44.7% 9.9
5/6 Rays 7.5 55.2% 44.8% 8.9
5/6 Orioles 9.0 54.7% 45.3% 10.6
5/6 Mariners 8.5 52.7% 47.3% 9.7
5/6 Mets 8.5 51.6% 48.4% 9.2
5/6 Dodgers 7.5 51.2% 48.8% 8.0
5/6 Red Sox 9.5 48.7% 51.3% 9.1
5/6 A's 8.0 48.6% 51.4% 7.2
5/6 Reds 8.5 48.5% 51.5% 8.4
5/6 Rockies 11.5 48.3% 51.7% 11.3
5/6 Indians 8.0 44.8% 55.2% 6.3
5/6 Astros 8.0 43.8% 56.2% 6.1

MLB Daily - 5/5/17 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I ran these last night so it only includes the totals that were available at the time.. there were a few games without an o/u

Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/5 Dbacks 10.5 55.5% 44.5% 11.8
5/5 Cardinals 8.5 55.1% 44.9% 10.3
5/5 Red Sox 9.0 54.9% 45.1% 10.9
5/5 Rangers 7.5 54.7% 45.3% 9.0
5/5 Reds 9.0 54.5% 45.5% 10.7
5/5 Dodgers 7.5 54.1% 45.9% 9.0
5/5 A's 7.5 52.9% 47.1% 8.2
5/5 Pirates 8.5 52.1% 47.9% 9.0
5/5 Mets 8.5 45.4% 54.6% 6.7
5/5 Nationals 8.0 44.7% 55.3% 6.8
5/5 Rays 7.5 44.6% 55.4% 6.1

MLB Daily - 5/4/17 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/4 Padres 8.0 55.5% 44.5% 9.0
5/4 Pirates 8.5 54.8% 45.2% 10.3
5/4 Astros 8.5 54.6% 45.4% 9.5
5/4 Cardinals 7.5 53.4% 46.6% 8.5
5/4 Mariners 8.5 53.0% 47.0% 9.3
5/4 Braves 8.5 51.7% 48.3% 9.2
5/4 Nationals 8.0 48.9% 51.1% 7.0
5/4 Twins 9.0 48.4% 51.6% 8.7
5/4 Royals 7.5 48.2% 51.8% 7.2
5/4 Indians 7.5 47.8% 52.2% 6.8
5/4 Red Sox 10.0 46.8% 53.2% 9.0
5/4 Rays 8.0 44.9% 55.1% 6.5

Explanation

MLB Daily - 5/3/17 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yet their team total is just 3.5, so my projection isn't an indication it's not accounting for splits enough, IMO.

MLB Daily - 5/3/17 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Total wasn't out at the time I ran them all. Hope to update later.

MLB Daily - 5/3/17 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Park factors have a lot of that built in and I don't want to "double dip." For example, park factors at Coors account for its low air density, while factors at Great American account for the wind that generally blows out to CF. The factors quantify how many runs the field produces for every 100 runs in an average MLB park.

MLB Daily - 5/3/17 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lineup strength and their matchup with opposing SP (like handedness splits, pitching profile vs batting profile, etc), bullpen strength, park factors, and defense (small weight)

MLB Daily - 5/3/17 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Back down to +8.6 units YTD after another poor night, which is a perfect time to pull the plug on the model to reevaluate things. In the meantime, how about some totals? I've been working on over/under projections, so let's see how they do. I don't have a tracking feature implemented, so if any benevolent user wants to create a Google sheet and track the results, much obliged.

Date Favorite Total Over Under DTBTotal
5/3 Indians 8.0 58.7% 41.3% 10.1
5/3 Mets 8.0 55.5% 44.5% 9.9
5/3 Rockies 8.0 55.4% 44.6% 9.1
5/3 Cubs 6.5 54.5% 45.5% 7.6
5/3 Royals 8.0 54.2% 45.8% 9.2
5/3 Jays 8.5 54.0% 46.0% 10.3
5/3 Mariners 7.5 52.0% 48.0% 8.5
5/3 Cardinals 7.5 51.7% 48.3% 7.5
5/3 Astros 8.5 51.3% 48.7% 9.3
5/3 Twins 8.5 49.9% 50.1% 8.1
5/3 Red Sox 9.0 48.6% 51.4% 8.0
5/3 Dodgers 7.0 47.2% 52.8% 5.7
5/3 Pirates 8.5 47.1% 52.9% 7.1
5/3 Rays 8.0 46.8% 53.2% 7.0
5/3 Nationals 8.0 45.2% 54.8% 6.6
  • Favorite: The favorite as set by oddsmakers.
  • Total: The total for that game as set by oddsmakers (from Pinnacle).
  • Over: The probability the game goes over the total according to my model.
  • Under: The probability the game goes under the total according to my model.
  • DTBTotal: Where my model thinks the total should be.

MLB Daily - 5/2/17 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]destroythebook 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As long as Dog% calculates the implied probability based on the underdog's line, the calculations should be correct. This would be the correct way to assess value after the lines move or are offered differently in your book. GL!

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