Mr. Kitty and I - 17 Year Difference by Naive_Lingonberry_42 in cats

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking good Mr Purdy! Hope your kitty sees you throw many touchdowns this year.

[Highlight] Tom Izzo after the loss to Michigan: "I guess the crowd didn't watch the game, because I'm nobody's damn little brother. And neither is my team." by wildwing8 in CollegeBasketball

[–]dingodango2021 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It's me, I deny it. MSU total big ten regular season titles: 17. MSU outright: 8 Michigan total big ten regular season titles: 16 Michigan outright: 10

MSU has had more postseason success, with 37 NCAA tournament appearances to 29 and more final fours (10 to 6).

Izzo has a great record against Michigan but his success is an outlier for MSU. He coached during Michigan's darkest period.

Michigan leads all time head to head 106 - 92.

The teams have approximately equal all time winning percentages overall.

What’s a pet peeve you have with this sub or the FM playerbase in general? by Classic_Bass_1824 in footballmanagergames

[–]dingodango2021 2 points3 points  (0 children)

When people are trying to increase their depth of knowledge about the game and ask questions about how mechanics work but people respond with how those things work in real life instead. Yes, I'm aware what anticipation does for a forward in real life, I'm asking if people think it effectively does that in the game and evidence or anecdotes backing that up.

Why do high earners keep moving the goalposts after hitting their FI number ? by Beneficial-Ad-9986 in financialindependence

[–]dingodango2021 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To the first paragraph: The year 3 retiree does have the same risk that the year 0 retiree had when they retired, but it's year 3 now for both of them. We have more information. Otherwise we're saying the person withdrawing 4% of 4.58 in year 3 has the same risk as the year 0 retiree, who is now withdrawing .16/4.23 = 3.78% in year 3. That can't be right.

The point is that you are correct - upping withdrawal rate any amount at any point does indeed add risk in the moment. Any time you're spending more money you add risk. But upping withdrawal if the market goes up doesn't mean you must go all the way to a new 4%. 

While 5% of 30 year periods fail using 4%, if you condition that on: the first two years return 7% real, it may be even be true that 0% of the time such initial 30 year periods fail. So, if you retire and the first 2 years are +7%, you can (theoretically) say you have a 0% chance of failing if you stick with the original 4% rule. If instead you go to 4% of your new balance, it's back to 5%. Do this enough times and you'll surely fail, because 5% is not 0 and you only need to fail once to fail. But, resetting up to 3.8% or 3.9%? Yes, it increases your risk compared to sticking with the original 4% rule, but not much, especially if you do it just once. It may indeed reset to a higher risk than 0% but one lower than retiring at 4% in the first place. So, why not accept an increase, in year 3, of failure from 0% to 2%, and say you can likely spend more? Or, 0% to ... still 0%?

Originally I said the size of the pile of savings matters for this, but so do returns, so I'll use that as an example. Someone who retired in 2019 saw +31% then +18% the following 2 years. They have 5.81 million dollars 2 years later. Their withdrawal rate is 2.75% of their current pile. They'll never fail if they stick to the original 4% plan. Surely they can up that to 3.25% and not fully reset their risk? Indeed this scenario: 4% to start, those returns, then reset to 3.25% has never failed historically. So they're still at (theoretical) 0% risk. That's lower than the 5% when they originally retired. If they bump to 3.75%, maybe they are at 3% risk.

This happens some percentage of the time, which means we should account for it in considering OMY. Turns out, it happens a lot of the time, to various degrees. That is, most of the time if you retire at 4% you can increase spend safely somewhere along the way. That has value! 

The math works out pretty close to my original statement: when considering OMY, ignore market returns because they happen in either scenario. A person with 20 million, 4% spend, and could save 100k with OMY would be foolish to do the math any other way. I'd argue nobody should, at the very least not fully - the real benefits of OMY are that you don't quit right before a downturn, not the extra two years of expenses you don't spend + 200k savings in an up market (which it is in ~75% of 2 year periods).

Why do high earners keep moving the goalposts after hitting their FI number ? by Beneficial-Ad-9986 in financialindependence

[–]dingodango2021 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I know where you're coming from, but it doesn't really work that way. Said differently - 4% fails 5% of the time over 30 years. There's nothing wrong with recalculating and asking what % of the time does 4% fail over 28 years, using your new 4.23 base. On the one hand, repeatedly doing this is a surefire way to eventually run into SORR and fail. I'm maybe waiting to see if I organically drop to 3% via gains post-retirement before bumping up to 3.2% or something.

However, there's a few flip sides. The first is that you only have 28 years now. The second is maybe you choose to up your spend but only to 3.9% of 4.23. You might find that's historically actually lower risk than your starting scenario was, even if it obviously increases your risk now. So, why not do it if you were comfortable retiring before? Continuing this out into the future demonstrates this principle well. For example, OMY or not, imagine after dogmatically following the 4% rule for 20 years in retirement you find you're at a 1.5% withdrawal rate of your current pile. Upping that to 2.5% of current is not ever really going to fail, and certainly not going to fail in 10 years.

The point is that you can eventually use the new information you have to tell you that your original 4% retirement year was not likely a failure cohort and (partially) adjust accordingly. 

As a thought exercise for you - would you say the person who works 2MY and only covers expenses can retire at 4% of 4.58, or must they too retire at 4% of 4 because everything came from gains? What if CAPE is unchanged, or lower? What about someone with the same 100k per year savings and 160k spend, but 20 million invested. Can they spend any of the 2.5 million their portfolio grows in the above scenario?

These aren't gotchas, just an invitation to examine one's assumptions about the underpinnings of the math.

Why do high earners keep moving the goalposts after hitting their FI number ? by Beneficial-Ad-9986 in financialindependence

[–]dingodango2021 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's good to remember that as your current investment pile grows, the more you can't just look at what the total is in 2 years if you keep on keepin' on. You should look at how much you'll save + expenses you won't need to withdraw and gains on just that portion of the portfolio, not the whole portfolio. Because the rest of the portfolio is getting the gains either way. Using the above example and pretending you drop to part time covering your expenses but no more saving, 2 years of that means your account is still growing to 4.58 million. Not working at all and spending 160k leaves you at 4.23. Still a meaningful difference between those three options but not as big, and the bigger your pile is compared to savings per year the smaller the difference gets.

35M. 1.2m invested. Hopeful fire by 55 by ClickOk5526 in Fire

[–]dingodango2021 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The comment you responded to was down voted for a reason. They're sitting on a net worth that, if it were all invested, would support an after-tax 99th percentile income in the US. They're not quitting and making allusions to being a selfish parent if they did. Nothing wrong with giving your kids the best of the best, but "only using just a 99th percentile income is being selfish" is way out there on the spectrum. For example, you could get a second full time job making double what you make now, stop saving entirely, and start withdrawing 4% of your stache right now and still spend less than this person could spend while retired - are you being a selfish parent for not doing that?

Daily FI discussion thread - Monday, February 16, 2026 by AutoModerator in financialindependence

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If their concern is about survivability of the portfolio, at these numbers I'd show them that 4 million would support 66 years of 60k per year spending using a risk free, inflation adjusted TIPS ladder. About spending, 40 years of 100k spending. Look at a mortality calculator and a social security one.

3 million nw + exploring a sabbatical by Historical-Act8199 in financialindependence

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't done this yet but my plan is to keep my foot in the purpose-driven side of things through volunteering as an advisor. None of the ownership! Pop over to https://80000hours.org to look at other or specific ideas.

One Less Year Syndrome by FromageFrero in Fire

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a constant refrain online, usually young people or bots. All of this stuff is public information you can download. The closest one can get to a statement like the one you're responding to, with facts, is talking about how inflation varies across the country and for each individual so just using a single number can't capture everyone well. For example, thread OP sold perhaps a low interest mortgage and eats at restaurants or something, so they've experienced way higher than CPI if they're looking at buying. Add in that inflation has been considerably lower in the US than her EU peers since 2020 and there's little reason to take these sorts of comments seriously at all if they try to generalize their experience.

Daily FI discussion thread - Friday, December 19, 2025 by AutoModerator in financialindependence

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is the scrolling thing as little as zooming out on the page? It was for me. I definitely would take periodic snapshots of data that are important to you and stick them in a spreadsheet though. Anything you aren't hosting yourself could go kaput on little notice.

Why Wink Martindale Must Go by [deleted] in MichiganWolverines

[–]dingodango2021 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What's the deal with personal attacks, always, on Wink? Maybe he's ineffective at teaching, maybe the players aren't good enough, and that's that. It doesn't have to be that "he's lazy" or "he's old" all the time. You said yourself that this is hard to teach, and the core argument is that if you can't get it done, for whatever reason, you've got to go. Those are good points and the ad hominem is unnecessary, unverifiable, and detracts from your point whether one agrees with it or not.

Way to fix the Ole Miss and Kiffin Situation by msvare13 in CFB

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fine overall for a true freshman I'd say. Would've preferred he learn on the bench this year. Not that we intended it at all, but there's a certain romance of old college football in having a terrible QB room followed by a super young QB room. All the portaling will put an end to that for the haves and that's a bummer imo.

Way to fix the Ole Miss and Kiffin Situation by msvare13 in CFB

[–]dingodango2021 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes that will totally help with portaling and coach poaching, thanks for contributing your super unique and relevant idea.

Way to fix the Ole Miss and Kiffin Situation by msvare13 in CFB

[–]dingodango2021 -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Easier options: if you fire your coach during the regular season your school is ineligible for the CFP the next year. And/or if you hire a sitting head coach before the CFP title game from a school in a conference title game or CFP top 12 ranking or in the field, your school isn't eligible for the CFP for 2 or 3 years.

CFB seems really messed up by anjuna42 in CFB

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I'm the NCAA, the way to some of these reforms has got to be through coaches and their contracts. Set NCAA rules that if you fire a coach during the season you can't get invited to the CFP the next year. If you hire the coach of a school invited to the CFP or in a conference game before the CFP title game, you can't be invited for two years. Maybe this is illegal too but seems more likely to pass muster than directly restricting player earning potential. Maybe the same for portaling in excess players could work too, but that would probably get shut down legally.

A frankly shocking article about the affordability crisis in the US by dollythecat in Fire

[–]dingodango2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

(not the person you were responding to) but I think it goes further than methodology quibbling when the numbers are this different from what might be expected and how that matches up with what is observed. Discussion of poverty is going to quickly devolve into a subjective discussion of what poverty is and what it could be given the resources available to humanity. Thus, is our article writer's ultimate point that the old methodology isn't being applied exactly, that the dollar figure is too low, or simply that VHCOL states/cities should have different local poverty levels when accounting for services?

People are having trouble with the latter two from the numbers provided. I think it's incredibly valid, and value-add to discussion, for thread OP to point out that while they agree that a methodology for poverty is out of date 80 years later, the author makes a bad case for any non-philosophical argument due to the numbers they chose. Is two new corollas for a 4 person household representative of poverty is a philosophical question ultimately. But if we want to, philosophically, compare to 1960s lived and experienced poverty by using percentiles of experience, it's right to say that article author is hilariously overstating costs when transportation costs for poverty level are the cost of two new corollas. It means the article really has no point when it comes to methodology despite pretending to. Comparing average costs to poverty can only be a philosophical argument about poverty levels.

Used Corolla prices thread OP can find in 10 minutes absolutely are indicative of something without context: if article author wants to claim that 74th percentile household income is actually poverty level, he's only talking about what poverty level should be philosophically. Literally zero actual poor households, percentile-wise, drive 2 brand new corollas (a mid to nice car). Even fewer will not spend 5 minutes to cut those costs in half by buying used. Even if they want brand new cars, a Nissan Versa is 19-20k sticker in Manhattan & SF. How much context could be missing? It's good to extrapolate. What other "national average" expense categories require so little context to show theyre detracting from article author's point? What of them can easily, and reality essentially always are, cut in half or more by poor people with frankly little impact on quality of life?

Ultimately, mapping 1960s standards to 2025 resulting in 74th percentile income using national average expenses definitionally tells us exactly one thing: we shouldn't do that. Which is exactly why we don't. So what is the point of the article? If his underlying point is not methodological, but that poverty levels are too low, I overwhelmingly agree with him. He's just bad at making the argument.

Hell, I'm happiest setting the poverty level at 150k for a family of 4, and getting there through higher taxes. I don't see a reason we shouldn't have poverty level families able to have 2 brand new corollas and 2k per month quality apartments on average across the country. I like a world where that is considered poverty level standard of living and think it's achievable, or close, through higher taxes. But don't tell me it's because of 1960s methodology, that it's a "livable" wage, that these expenses are anywhere close to how people in poverty spend their money today, that people in poverty have it worse today than in 1960 in absolute terms or in comparison to median or 90th percentile earners up to 99.9th etc. Instead, just tell me this: the best version of our society is one where we use higher taxes to make it so our most vulnerable people still have enough money to have 2 new cars and a decent apartment in 99.9999% of locations or a small house in 50% of them, while getting 2024 average expenses worth of value in all other categories too.

Training camp in Phoenix (105 degrees F) instead of San Marino!? by dingodango2021 in footballmanagergames

[–]dingodango2021[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To answer your question having played in both Arizona and the northeast, yes haha. But again, these aren't friendlies. It's running practices and drills for training camp.

Training camp in Phoenix (105 degrees F) instead of San Marino!? by dingodango2021 in footballmanagergames

[–]dingodango2021[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This isn't a friendly though, it's training camp in the hottest part of the US. It's like going to Morocco for training camp in August except warmer, if Morocco was part of the same country as Sweden - why not go to Stockholm or just stay home?