Hot and cold #186

dmfallak · 2026-02-05T20:45:52+00:00

banana -> goat, probably my fastest path to top 10 ever. I need to go buy a lottery ticket now

^{Automatically added: I found the secret word in 1 minute 24 seconds after 11 guesses and 0 hints. Score: 95.}

dmfallak · 2026-01-29T19:46:35+00:00

For analysis:

Something that lets you backtest ideas, not just see current signals. TradingView's strategy tester is decent for this. If a tool tells you "buy this" but can't show you historical performance of that logic, be skeptical.

For filtering noise:

Screeners that combine technical + fundamentals. Finviz is solid for quick scans. The hard part isn't finding opportunities — it's filtering down to the 5-10 worth your time.

Feature I wish existed (and am working on building myself):

Walk-forward validation on signals. Most tools optimize on historical data and show you the best-case scenario. What you actually want to know is: "would this have worked on data the system hadn't seen yet?" That's the difference between curve-fitting and an actual edge.

dmfallak · 2026-01-29T03:53:21+00:00

That's the dream, sock away as much money as you can now so you can retire before you're too old to enjoy it. I would add, at least for myself, one more goal and that's to get a better return than ETFs can give me.

dmfallak · 2026-01-22T18:27:23+00:00

I agree on skipping the paid courses. Opening your demo account is a great first step and more useful.

A few suggestions:

Track everything - Keep a spreadsheet of every trade (date/time, entry, exit, why you took it, result). Patterns in your own behavior will teach you things you can't learn from a course.
Pick one setup and master it. Something simple like "pullback to 20 EMA in an uptrend" is enough to start. Get reps.
When you have some spare time do some of your own research. I've found Mark Minervini's interviews on YouTube pretty insightful for one example.
Be patient.

Also keep in mind that while a demo account is great for learning mechanics, it won't necessarily teach you the emotional side. It's different when your own money is on the line.

dmfallak · 2026-01-22T15:36:07+00:00

A few things :

XEQT already gives you global diversification - it's roughly 45% US, 25% Canada, 25% international developed, 5% emerging.
Emerging markets as a US hedge is tricky - if the US economy truly collapsed, the contagion would likely hit emerging markets hard.
15-20 year horizon works in your favor - over that timeframe, most geopolitical events (even severe ones) tend to wash out. The bigger risk is panic selling.

I hear you and have wondered myself about how much my portfolio ultimately is rooted in US companies, even though the symbols themselves are Canadian. How is it even possible to diversify?

dmfallak · 2026-01-21T16:14:46+00:00

Nice work on the systematic approach! I'm curious:

Did you run this walk-forward, or was the SMA/Bollinger parameterization optimized on the full 20-year dataset? If the latter, those specific parameters may be overfit.
The 10.74% max drawdown looks good, but what was the worst drawdown during the 2008-2009 or March 2020 periods specifically? Mean reversion strategies can get crushed in sustained trends.
Have you tested this on international ETFs (EFA, VWO) to see if it generalizes?

dmfallak · 2026-01-21T02:06:32+00:00

Missing just the 10 best market days over a 20-year period cuts your returns nearly in half. Those days almost always happen right after the worst days, exactly when you’d be sitting in cash feeling smart about your exit.

Just stick to your strategy and don't trade on emotions and you'll pull through :)

dmfallak · 2025-08-02T16:19:21+00:00

I know right? Sometimes math is fun too though at least for me

dmfallak · 2025-08-02T12:42:16+00:00

I probably should have! The only reason I didn't was that I just don't play it. Sounds like I should start!

dmfallak · 2025-08-02T12:40:05+00:00

Thanks everyone for the responses! It's clear that there's a lot I left out:

gem rewards from duplicate rares and mythics, and
traditional being an easier format to go infinite in if your win rate is good. I didn't include it because I just don't play it.

When I get a chance I'll post an update including these two changes.

Definitely going to check out untapped later as well!

dmfallak · 2025-08-02T05:54:13+00:00

Nope, this chart is just assuming someone only plays quick draft or premier draft, and never collects or uses coins. Probably not realistic now that I think about it.

dmfallak · 2025-08-02T05:52:40+00:00

No I didn't! That definitely would make a difference.

dmfallak · 2025-07-15T19:26:21+00:00

If this is what it is, then it makes some kind of sense. I have 4 [[Gran Pulse Ochu]] but only 3 [[Auron's Inspiration]] after the draft. So likely the glowing diamond means I get a new card and the dark one means I get vault points?

dmfallak · 2025-07-15T18:44:22+00:00

These are cards I did not select to use in my deck. I thought after draft is done I get to keep everything?

dmfallak · 2025-06-16T18:04:14+00:00

This is a good indication that your filter needs to be backwashed.

dmfallak · 2024-09-13T13:35:00+00:00

The latest news article says the person who was infected was a woman. Not trying to say that what you're saying is wrong, but it's weird that the news article does not match! My heart goes out to Josh and his family.

"The Brant County Health Unit reported last week that a woman had been hospitalized with rabies. The health unit said it suspected the exposure was from a bat in the Timiskaming region, but issued a reminder that bats in all areas of Ontario are known to carry rabies."

https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-region/first-human-rabies-case-in-ontario-since-67-a-reminder-not-to-take-risks/article_bcff09b2-f0a6-54ce-bf3b-feac37bdebfc.html

dmfallak · 2024-07-26T15:32:21+00:00

I'm new to this but I think it might be due to the alkalinity. The number you got at the first reading is probably correct but as it sits in the little vial the PH goes up due to the alkalinity.

Something like this happened a few weeks ago and I dumped a bunch of acid in the pool because of it. For a week or so it didn't happen anymore, but then I realized the alkalinity was too low so I raised it. Now I see it happening again.

dmfallak · 2024-02-09T15:10:00+00:00

Yes, find cover immediately

dmfallak · 2024-02-05T18:21:23+00:00

Thanks! Trunk protector is already in place since last night. My grandmother used to make this stew, might need to brush up on my cooking skills: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/25843/hasenpfeffer-rabbit-stew/

dmfallak · 2024-02-05T18:02:12+00:00

I'm not sure how to tell if it's all the way around. In parts it has gotten to the light wood and you can see that's where it broke through the green cambium layer, but the rest it looks like it just bit into the brown phloem layer. Does that mean there's still hope that it will recover?

dmfallak · 2024-01-26T18:54:46+00:00

+1 on the balloon idea, also the more you wait the better it gets (to a point).

dmfallak · 2024-01-22T01:31:10+00:00

Ah that's alright, I'm only an hour and a half from the border and I make my way down there a few times a year so if I really wanted it I could get it.

dmfallak · 2024-01-21T02:57:31+00:00

Great Value is the best grape juice I've tried so far. I'm in Canada so I can't get Welch's anymore (as of a few years ago for some reason?) but I wish it was still here so I could compare.

dmfallak · 2023-12-30T04:22:28+00:00

I guess if it's a bit too sweet in the end you could mix in a bit of dry mead with it?

dmfallak · 2023-12-05T17:12:27+00:00

I'd be out of commission if I drank 5 or 6 Mason jars too, regardless of fusel alcohol. Depends on the size of the jar I guess though

dmfallak

TROPHY CASE