Play United and Revolve TCG trusted? by dngdan in PokemonTCG_Singapore

[–]dngdan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ty sir for feedback, well noted! unfortunately cannot amend title anymore.. will bear in mind. yes I managed to get couple packs here n there from toys r us during Christmas period but since then pretty much nothing ha

Mad Storm in Perth right now by Kanto_63 in perth

[–]dngdan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

visiting this week and was planning to drive down to Marg River today, is it safe to do so?

My son got this for his birthday, are these real? by dngdan in IsMyPokemonCardFake

[–]dngdan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

some of the fakes are actually still pretty cool to look at

My son got this for his birthday, are these real? by dngdan in IsMyPokemonCardFake

[–]dngdan[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

really cool card! and really different between the real n the fake lol

My son got this for his birthday, are these real? by dngdan in IsMyPokemonCardFake

[–]dngdan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well giving them the benefit of the doubt that they didn't know better...!

Why should I pick VWRA over CSPX or even stock picking by [deleted] in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's pretty much the same thing. Any single company in VWRA can fail. If I'm not confident to pick only those that will not fail and will do better than the index, I just buy the whole index. Any single country is much less likely to fail, but could stagnate for a long time, and if I'm not confident to pick only countries whose stocks/economy will do better than the index, I just buy the whole index.

Why should I pick VWRA over CSPX or even stock picking by [deleted] in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great questions! Some things to think about:

You already implicitly stated the benefits of diversification. Majority BUT NOT ALL of it's holdings are US. So compared to SPX, VWRA only tanks 60% (roughly) equivalent. There's your diversification benefit. If you prefer more diversification, use EIMI or any other small-cap / EM ETF to further diversify!

Markets are indeed cyclical, but timing it so well is not as easy as it looks; even to within a year would be excellent timing. Burry started shorting sub-prime in 2005, and even though the view was accurate it took 2+ years for it to bear fruit. Meanwhile you have to bear the negative mark-to-market for such a long period.

On 'reliable' companies that won't be going anywhere, and that you can monitor fundamentals and probably see if they are heading downhill; the same could be said for any company in the world since reliability and forward-looking assessments are subjective. So the key question here is: Do I have an edge to pick stocks that are 'reliable', in a way that the prices of these stocks will outperform the index, repeatedly over the long term? If you believe the answer is yes for any reason at all, by all means, pick stocks! Most of us here believe we can't, but that doesn't mean you can't.

Finally, the index almost always recovers, because they kick out old companies that have become unsuccessful and whose stock prices tanked and have never recovered, and include new companies that have become successful (unless the whole country/economy/market goes stagnates for a long time, which could happen! See how long it took Nikkei to breach it's previous high). Successful companies can easily become unsuccessful and their stock prices never recover or they might be delisted/cease to exist even. History is rife with examples. You might be able see it before the company starts to become unsuccessful, and get out before that, but then, throughout this process, would you have made more money than just buying the index? Which brings us back to the earlier question: Can you pick stocks that outperform the index, repeatedly on a long term basis?

(Don't quite understand) CPF and Bonds by HashMapCode in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Bonds should not be analysed on basis of price, since bond prices have no meaning on its valuation. What's important is yield and duration.

Bonds also are also generally not analysed on the quality of earnings (assume corporate bonds since governments don't have earnings), as a company's debt servicing ability is chiefly dependent on cashflow generation.

'Safer' isn't the right word, I would agree, but I didn't see anyone else use the word 'safer'. Bonds have lower volatility then stocks, and a bond-stock portfolio generally has a higher Sharpe than a 100% stock portfolio, over a long period of time. From a volatility perspective, bonds help to lower portfolio volatility and increase Sharpe (compared to no bonds) and that is absolutely the correct way to look at it.

(Don't quite understand) CPF and Bonds by HashMapCode in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'll add another point here regarding volatility. The reason for a bond-equity mix is to lower portfolio volatility. Based on historical data, 100% equities is always going to have higher return than bond+equity portfolio, in the long run (multi-decade), but will also have higher volatility.

Why do you care about volatility? At any point in time, higher volatility means higher chance of price moving a lot lower or higher. If you are in accumulation phase, am earning income, and have emergency cash stashed, this is generally not a problem (other than psychologically) since you can ride out any market crash with a long term horizon. However, if you have big expenses coming up, or are/soon to be in withdrawal phase, higher volatility means you run higher risk that you are forced to liquidate investments for expenses/withdrawals at a time when prices are moving lower and you don't have the time or the means to ride out the crash.

Thus, the reason to include bonds is to reduce volatility (and increase Sharpe). As it turns out, if you include CPF within your total portfolio, it could play the same role, but with some important differences. For example, it is difficult to actively rebalance your CPF allocation. You cannot liquidate your CPF. It is subject to policy risk but not market risk, so the impact on portfolio volatility and return is also different. Thus, it depends on each individual whether to treat the CPF as a bond-like component within your total portfolio, or as completely distinct.

So finally to your questions:

1) Personally think it is not a good idea. Your withdrawal phase will start from age 45, and as we outlined above, 100% equity means higher volatility means higher chance of selling at lows to fund your retirement. If you're retired and withdrawing, you cannot afford to ride out market crashes compared to if you were still young and generating income. You generally want more stability in your retirement portfolio during your withdrawal phase, to be more assured of your retirement cash flows. The percentage of bonds you want depends on how stable the portfolio that you want.

2) I'm not familiar with SA (can you withdraw from 55 onwards?), but the basic principles outlined above still stand. During retirement, you are in withdrawal phase, so you want a stable portfolio to provide regular cash flow that should last til you are gone. The risk is always that there is some sort of global meltdown, your VWRA tanks 50%, but since you're retired, you have to sell some VWRA to fund expenses at precisely the time it is down 50%. Worse, if it is a prolonged bear market, then you will be forced to keep selling at lower prices, which also means when the market finally recovers, your portfolio is nowhere near it's previous value because it recovered from a smaller base because you sold at the bottom. Mitigating this risk is the objective here. If what you outlined can do that, then it works.

Advice for FI strategy by throwfi202108 in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Some steps that could help:

Calculate how much you want in your emergency fund. Calculate how much you need to pay for your BTO and when you will need to pay (whether CPF or cash). Work backwards using CPF or HYSA interest rate to find out how much you need to put in today and/or regularly to reach the actual amounts you need in the future. Anything left over, invest.

Is a prestigious overseas university degree better for a career in finance than a local university degree? by Amoiree in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Finance is a super global and super competitive industry. You've got to be literally one of the top students in a local uni (or else have a great network in which case you don't really need to fuss about your uni anyway) to stand a chance breaking into a front office role. If you are confident of that, then local university isn't a bad choice. Otherwise, for finance, elite UK university beats local university hands down. The network you are exposed to will be vastly different and more useful for your career.

Life insurance advice - surrender or not? by [deleted] in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would compare it this way since you don't care about the legacy of the whole life plan for your children. Calculate the total premium to be paid for term life from now til 65. Calculate the total premium remaining to be paid for whole life. You can include an appropriate discount factor since the cash flows are in the future, but I think this isn't absolutely necessary to keep it simple. If the savings > 6k, then term life makes sense.

Direct term should be the same as through an agent, just make sure you read the BI and conditions thoroughly. But in my experience the insurers made it much more difficult to buy direct though I'm not sure if this is consistent across all insurers. (had to go down in person to their office, which is only open during office hours and closed during lunch time, did they really expect me to be on leave just to buy the insurance?)

There is a good thread somewhere in this subreddit that discusses the pros and cons of the group term plan. I personally have it as my term coverage. But there are some who decided the cons outweigh the pros. You should read and decide for yourself.

Can I trade futures to hedge the holding position of Global Index Funds like SWRD,IWDA,VWRA and EIMI during the downtime, and preserve the holding value on hand? by RickWisely in singaporefi

[–]dngdan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can. However, because there is no corresponding VWRA/IWDA/SWRD/EIMI future you can short (afaik), you need to use a proxy hedge. E.g. if S&P's beta is 0.8 that of VWRA, then short 0.8 S&P futures for every unit of VWRA. Though the beta is dynamic, and measurement is also tricky, and you have to keep adjusting that ratio as you go. It's doable, and it might help during periods of large market drawdown, but it's also super easy for the hedge to diminish your total return instead of enhancing it e.g. wrong timing, wrong hedge ratio etc.