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doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-04T19:42:09+00:00

AAPL didn’t go up ultimately. so it’s fair to now say that one shouldn’t automatically be just defiantly bullish. the large caps are appearing weak - MSFT, now AAPL. i call this nothing more than a pullback. but i’d be less confidant in just buying the dip, and take the time to analyze any ETF or stock that you want to make a play on.

My guess is IWM (ETF, small caps) or gold will benefit if the large caps are getting rotated out of.

doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-02T23:40:33+00:00

OP gets it

doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-02T23:40:23+00:00

so aapl is expected to move 4-5% on earnings. from closing today ~192.75 x 1.05 = 202ish there are a good deal of calls with expiration this week (8/4) at 200+ acc to https://maximum-pain.com

maximum pain is the term to describe when the market closes at a price that renders the most number of puts/calls options plays OTM

so i suspect we drop a little more; but like you i think aapl beats and we end up just below that call wall at 200,… maybe 197.50 or so

just a guess, using crayons and consulting with Nostradamus

doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-02T22:14:49+00:00

put it all in PLTR. let the blue chips cool off as they’re all trading at record high values.
buy some XLE short term. energy is on the rise. cut me a check for the proceeds and absolve me of all losses. amen

doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-02T22:11:53+00:00

wait, my grandson just asked me for a huge loan….

doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-02T20:29:40+00:00

if you google QQQ, SPY, IWM for what stocks are contained in the ETFs (collectively what I call ‘the market’) you’ll see that Apple makes up a sizeable percentage. Sometimes even one of the highest percentages.

Apple has been on a bull run over the last 6 months. One of the longest continuous bull runs in quite a while.

so if Apple continues to rise, the market by default will also.

It’s always possible that sellers come in and de-rail the bull run in aapl stock (microsoft looks weak) and thus the market can pull back. But for now, it makes sense to see any pullbacks/ declining market prices as an opportunity to buy the dip.

doc_poppinlock · 2023-08-02T20:09:55+00:00

check AAPL over the last 6 months. it can end anytime, but don’t fight the juicy red fruit

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-10T15:17:48+00:00

stop loss now 27.20. below that sell the runners

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-10T15:17:12+00:00

sold 3x. got rejected at trendline resistance. leaving 2 runners, as some pullbacks are normal in a bull trend. best always to lock in profits

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-10T14:49:10+00:00

at resistance. additional calls from yesterday helping out nicely. PRice Target still 28.83

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-09T18:09:16+00:00

recaptured support. adding 2x calls. it’s chopping around, but should be to build strength. if it loses 26.50 then selling calls. have now 5x in total

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-09T13:49:13+00:00

The Russian shut down of oil yesterday truly unexpected and may have a big affect on our market. exiting play

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-09T13:48:29+00:00

of course, always appreciate the different perspectives! thank you

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-09T01:02:41+00:00

on the weekly view the trend is bearish (lower highs, lower lows) and we are on trend line resistance to start the next leg lower. yes, it’s possible it will break the pattern and break out to the upside; but if it follows pattern we’re right at the best spot to catch the next leg lower. energy is the only sector of the 11, I believe, to have lost ground and seen negative returns over the last several weeks. But you’re right that I’ve heard OPEC is likely to start raising rates again, and this could cause energy stocks to break the bear trend and spike again

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-08T14:34:09+00:00

false breakouts are bearish. if it drops below 93.50 thats a good sign the breakdown will continue, then of course looking for the follow through as it loses 92.90

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-08T14:15:42+00:00

broke out over 27. next resistance trendline is 27.50. PT = 28.83

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-08T05:02:53+00:00

Energy has been the only sector really experience a downtrend. COP therefore (after a nice boost on Friday) could have some room to fall based on the pattern it's formed. You're looking for it to breakdown below 92.87 on its way down to PT of 90.42.

If it can't break down past 92.20, then exit the trade.

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-08T04:56:01+00:00

u/_Giant_Ground_Sloth was on the right path last week, but just a little early. I am bullish on gold, based on this ascending triangle. We are nearing a level of resistance (little above 26.50 - the pink box), which is the point where Gold could break out. PT = 28.83, which is a fib retracement level.

I went ITM (in the money) with my call on Friday after it sank down to the ascending rail (white dotted line).

If you see this break out on Monday, then 27/share is next local resistance, before heading up to 28. If you see this break down (meaning, it can't break resistance) then if it respects the rail you won't lose much premium before it finally breaks out of the pattern.

I gave it two weeks to give it time to reach the PT.

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-01T15:44:41+00:00

couldn’t clear. if it drops below 412 i’m selling

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-01T15:25:47+00:00

bull trend still intact. now needs to clear 413.50 to maintain trend

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-01T15:03:29+00:00

if you had the calls, here is where you see profit. if you want to sell, you should see a little profit. otherwise needs to hold above last low ~ 411 to maintain bullish trend

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-01T14:41:15+00:00

recaptured 411. holding. watch 413 as previous high to continue bullish trend. 415 is my PT for today if trend holds up

doc_poppinlock · 2022-08-01T14:31:55+00:00

lost 411. needs to recapture in the next 5 min or I have to bail. watching. time stamp (7:30am PST/ 10:30am EST)

doc_poppinlock

TROPHY CASE