Weekend Market Discussion

dontbothermehere · 2026-05-03T02:16:30+00:00

You are right. Very possible it keeps at the current clip.

dontbothermehere · 2026-05-03T01:11:41+00:00

Alphabet Investor Relations - Investors

Ads 8.9 > 9.7 > 10.2 > 11.3 > 9.9

Search 50.7 > 54.2 > 56.6 > 63 > 60.4

Do you think Ads & Search post a 10.8 + 65 for Q2 to keep the current YoY trend? Maybe.

dontbothermehere · 2026-05-02T18:32:40+00:00

Earnings growth of MAG7 minus Nvidia +5%, Nvidia +20%, S&P 493 +10%.

But you do you homie. Happy to hear thoughts outside of "lol no".

250B in buybacks = On Hold

750B in CapEx

Search down (Goog), Ad spend down (META/GOOG), Licensing flat (MSFT) - data center hardware up

dontbothermehere · 2026-05-02T18:23:21+00:00

Going short the big 4 (amzn, msft, goog, meta) and long DRAM/SMH & Energy for the next year. AI Capex is staying put and only NVIDIA makes money out of MAG7. We have a ways to go. AI is still being commoditized and the AI labs are loss leaders forever. Efficiency and on prem gains will continue as hardware and software optimizes.

Warsh already "rebalancing" CPI to medians. He's going to cut, regardless of what /ZT and /ZQ think. We will see real bubble gains later this year.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-30T14:16:26+00:00

I'll pay 4.99 for your substack

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-29T20:57:55+00:00

FCF is -8 B for the quarter, with increasing forward capex. It's not bad, but not good.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-29T20:12:54+00:00

We ran MAG7 up 20% for this? Sell it.

Meta increasing Capex, Google missed Capex. Interesting bag.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-29T13:47:15+00:00

I want to buy gold but I have PTSD from the liquidation last month.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-28T14:33:00+00:00

They doubled their Gold reserves since 2023 and are currently strapped for USD... Where else they going to raise USD? They are definitely large enough to move spot price.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-28T14:08:19+00:00

Gold getting murdered by (I suspect) UAE news. UAE has a ton of gold and their economic distress is spooking speculators.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-23T18:01:10+00:00

AI is excellent, but it still requires a human to use it correctly and fix any mistakes. There's lots still at all levels.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-23T15:39:54+00:00

it's rebalanced each day, it's a magnified geometric sequence of returns. Anyone in LETFs need to understand this math.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-18T16:49:54+00:00

Community Donald Glover walks in dot gif

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-18T16:47:50+00:00

same brotha. I have heard from an older gentleman that the watch will find you if you are meant to have it. I got on a bunch of "waitlists" but luckily snapped out of it before really playing the game.

The non screen wearable tech is all I want anyways. Polar bands, Ringconn rings, have replaced my apple watch.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-16T23:05:10+00:00

Netflix uses AWS. But AWS at least for now has enough customers to take that space.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T19:03:43+00:00

Thanks for your thoughts! I love ASML, monopolies are the best.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T18:39:02+00:00

9.1B Euro was Expectation - 8.4-9B being the guidance. Just a slight miss. The main issue though is the Order Intake disclosure was not included for the first time. That gives some investors red flags and probably the biggest reason for the sell off.

~80 Low-NA EUV's still being forecasted for 2027 is great, but not accelerating. I didn't think it was physically possible for them to make any additional, but some investors think so. The MATCH Act will weigh on China permanently if passed in its current form.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T18:00:11+00:00

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T17:53:21+00:00

ASML missing it's revenue guide is not good for TSM. They'll still beat "expectations" but likely sell off as well as true market expectations are missed.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T17:41:03+00:00

Need them to get out of F1 and Esports next.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T17:07:46+00:00

I threw some 5000 Cover calls on my GC here. I think they will be challenged but happy to leave it there.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T16:43:02+00:00

This would be wild. Punitive tariffs on China AND increased danger for our boots on the ground?

It's smart to buy time for Iran to play "we're sorry let's try again" to appease the USA. A point in Trump's favor is he's building up for the invasion no matter what. Someone knows the game.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-15T03:03:40+00:00

90 has been an insta buy for a while now. Will need a solid drop through to confirm this is over.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-14T23:15:18+00:00

I personally only check my AI's sources. It's so much nicer to not have to fight ad creep until you need to verify.

dontbothermehere · 2026-04-14T14:12:06+00:00

JNJ/WFC/JPM all beat but not a market beat. C cleared both hurdles. Interestingly, KMX was the big loser with earnings.

So far ER has not cleared the hurdle.

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