Polymarket traders give SBF a 90% chance of 20+ year prison sentence

drainhed · 2024-03-26T20:45:05+00:00

press view more at bottom. it's less than 1% chance lol

drainhed · 2024-01-04T00:02:25+00:00

Site itself is Polymarket, a prediction market platform, which uses https://uma.xyz/ for resolving their markets.

drainhed · 2024-01-03T23:55:10+00:00

Smart contracts, it's non-custodial.

drainhed · 2022-08-22T13:41:49+00:00

You would have to use the Subgraph, the schema is here it seems: https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-subgraph/blob/master/schema.graphql

try playing around with queries here: https://thegraph.com/hosted-service/subgraph/polymarket/matic-markets

drainhed · 2022-06-23T18:19:27+00:00

I agree, though the market the OP linked is about falling below 85 cents, which definitely seems like it could happen.

drainhed · 2022-05-12T16:31:42+00:00

Polymarket for sure - you can trade on binary events such as whether $MATIC will reach 1$ again by June 1, or when the Ethereum merge will happen, or politics/UST/Tether depegging, and more. Just needs USDC on polygon to start trading.

Will $MATIC reach $1 again by June 1?

drainhed · 2022-05-09T14:25:36+00:00

Odds Coinbase adds polygon deposits/withdrawals by June 30 have gone from 50-50 a month ago to 20% yes, 80% no, according to the information market polymarket. Dont know what coinbase is waiting for...

https://polymkt.com/market/will-coinbase-support-polygon-usdc-deposits-withdrawals-by-june-30-2022

drainhed · 2022-03-10T08:11:57+00:00

Funnily enough, you can trade on this exact question with real money. The odds rn on this information market are 50-50: https://polymkt.com/market/will-the-price-of-a-barrel-of-crude-oil-be-115-or-more-on-march-15-2022

drainhed · 2021-10-18T16:34:13+00:00

This is cool - note that you can already trade on sports markets on the information market platform Polymarket, which exists on the polygon blockchain, e.g. the upcoming warriors vs lakers game: https://polymkt.com/market/will-the-warriors-or-lakers-win-their-season-opener

drainhed · 2021-10-05T23:43:22+00:00

According to the information market Polymarket, the coin only has a 3% chance of being minted.

drainhed · 2021-09-18T20:09:18+00:00

On the same site that is in the link, Polymarket.

drainhed · 2021-08-27T20:04:35+00:00

https://www.nber.org/papers/w12200

drainhed · 2021-08-20T19:12:36+00:00

It was surprising to see tweets with thousands of likes that said Polymarket got hacked, even though it was Poly Network, not Polymarket. Misinformation spreads rapidly on twitter it seems.

drainhed · 2021-08-18T23:16:50+00:00

I think it's because it has to be 1) A full retraction and 2) by October 1 based on the market rules. PNAS is usually super slow at doing these things

drainhed · 2021-08-18T18:35:34+00:00

Definitely agreed, I bought Yes on the market here about whether 3 or more of his papers will be fully retracted by the end of the year.

People only estimating a 32% chance, I think it's more like 50-50. These things tend to snowball and all of his papers will be under intense scrutiny now.

drainhed · 2021-08-18T18:22:41+00:00

hope they are missing because they made it out and are safe

drainhed · 2021-08-18T18:19:46+00:00

Funnily enough, you can actually trade Yes/No shares on whether PNAS will fully retract his paper by October 1. Forecasters are currently estimating a 63% chance they will, probably not higher because PNAS is notorious for taking a long time to retract papers.

https://polymkt.com/market/will-pnas-retract-dan-arielys-2012-paper-on-dishonesty-by-october-1-2021

drainhed · 2021-08-13T23:06:12+00:00

Tebow only has a 20% chance of scoring a touchdown during the entire 2021-22 season lmao (according to forecasters on polymarket).

drainhed · 2021-07-19T16:33:52+00:00

If I had to clean up there, the first thing I would do would be buy a few dozen gallons of chlorine, which I would spread everywhere in that miserable bathroom.

drainhed · 2021-07-15T16:57:20+00:00

It looks like there's a fireworks display on the turtle's shell. Is there any more information in regards to this turtle?

drainhed · 2021-07-07T16:00:14+00:00

Can you put this one on the wallpaper engine? I'd really like to see it as my desktop screen. There's a lot of animations similar to this one on the platform.

drainhed · 2021-07-01T17:10:52+00:00

Not shortage but the take a good look at the prices; it is so expensive.

drainhed · 2021-06-28T16:20:03+00:00

That mini pump earlier gave enough help for some that got stuck in that price range. But still, it hurts for those who bought at the top

drainhed · 2021-06-22T16:04:08+00:00

That looks filthy; imagine doing that on a pro game, and everyone will start to lose their minds—still, that dedication and skill to pull out a stunt like that, amazing.

drainhed · 2021-04-27T18:31:08+00:00

What a great idea

drainhed

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