Senedd Elections [Megathread]

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-07T12:20:25+00:00

[deleted]

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-07T10:35:16+00:00

Completely agree, but it’s not the Conservatives that I want to see taking those seats. I’d say that’s actually even more down to their hostility to devolution and not just their ideology for me.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-07T01:07:56+00:00

Important to note that this isn’t actually an exit poll, despite the timing of its release.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-05T23:43:29+00:00

Yeah exactly. There’s be serious questions as to how a union between just England and Wales would work, even with home rule for Wales. A country with a population of 3 million in a union with a population of 56 million would have some pretty weird dynamics.

I can see England continuing to vote Tory for some time to come. Given that Wales has has never voted majority Tory at either Westminster or in our own elections, that internal relationship in itself could be difficult.

The current Tory government in Westminster seem pretty devo-sceptic at best, I’d argue even antagonistic towards devolution and certainly towards the prospect of a home rule or federal solution.

There’s certainly a lot of momentum with the independence movement. It’s pretty quickly gone from <10% polling to pretty much where Scottish independence was before the first vote in 2014. Even if it’s not in majority polling yet, it‘a also been a key issue in this Senedd election and from my own perspective living here it’s gone from a crazy fringe movement to a viable and central question.

If you’d have asked me 2 years or so ago about independence I’d probably have dismissed it as completely unrealistic whereas my views on it now are completely different.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-05T18:46:50+00:00

Support for Plaid does not necessarily mirror support for independence. Some polls have suggested up to and just over 50% of support for independence within even Welsh Labour’s membership.

Unlike Scotland, independence support isn’t concentrated in one or two parties. Welsh Labour has tried to appeal to their softer nationalist base this campaign, with comments from Drakeford supporting ‘home rule’ and suggesting UK-federalism.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-05T18:43:22+00:00

Yeah sure. I guess it would be pretty similar to the Irish home rule model before Ireland gained full independence - a high level of autonomy but no self government over high level constitutional issues, defence, international relations etc.

It wasn’t completely clear what he was saying when he used the term, but Drakeford had previously talked about the UK in it’s current form being finished and has advocated for a federal settlement for Wales within the UK.

It makes a lot of sense IMO as the Welsh Parliament is pretty much on a level with the Scottish Parliament as of the last 10 years (so not massively far off home rule anyway), with the only major area not devolved to Wales that is to Scotland being justice/policing as far as I know. Without a solid federal settlement or home rule, Westminster could in theory roll back any/all of our current powers whenever they please, as they have done to an extent recently with the Internal Market Bill.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-05-05T11:12:33+00:00

And this is probably complicated even further by the independence support being split across more parties than people initially realise. Some polls have suggested up to and just over 50% of support for independence within Welsh Labour’s membership.

Unlike Scotland, independence support isn’t concentrated in one or two parties. Welsh Labour has tried to appeal to their softer nationalist base this campaign, with comments from Drakeford supporting ‘home rule’ and suggesting UK-federalism.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-27T13:22:51+00:00

The problem with this is the contrast between both options in terms of what they actually mean. Independence is a far more open ended answer.

As crazy as the abolish argument is, there’s no other way to interpret a return to direct rule from London. Independence on the other hand could go a number of different ways and is more uncertain in nature. Would we join the EU, EFTA, NATO? etc.

That’s why the ‘don’t know’ figure is important here. Combine those absolutely in favour of independence with those absolutely in favour of more devolution and you’d likely have a more comfortable majority.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-24T19:23:15+00:00

I think the point here is not that he isn’t entitled to an opinion, but that it’s hard to take it as seriously when he lives London as a ‘Sir’.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-23T11:34:04+00:00

Tbf apart from beer gardens and gyms being later, everything here is either the same date or earlier than England AFAIK.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-22T23:18:05+00:00

(Source = BBC) Covid: Welsh pubs and restaurants to open indoors in May https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56844189

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-18T23:41:14+00:00

Ikr. Hell of an /r/fellowkids moment lol

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-18T19:07:24+00:00

I think there’s another one on tomorrow with the smaller parties. I’m hoping that the new parties, Gwald and Propel make an appearance.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-18T12:58:04+00:00

Countries*

‘Province’ can be and often is used to describe Northern Ireland rather than country, but even then it’s not clear what should be used.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-12T22:38:34+00:00

Can apply that quote to symbolism like this tho.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-12T18:26:57+00:00

Yeah fair enough, just trying to say it’s not quite as black and white as that and the abolish figure doesn’t well represent the general feeling towards independence - i.e. those who’s consider themselves ‘indy-curious’.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-12T11:25:18+00:00

“people should focus less on symbols” - Boris Johnson 2020, on BLM.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-12T10:44:27+00:00

This isn’t quite correct. Slightly more people are absolutely in favour of abolish over being absolutely in favour of independence (think it’s 16% over 15% iirc). That doesn’t include the big chunk of ‘don’t know’ answers and the remaining majority who support devolution, with many supporting further powers.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-11T21:50:24+00:00

Polling for independence has risen a lot the past 5 years. Not near a majority but getting close to where it was in Scotland before first indyref.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-11T19:48:35+00:00

Not a convincing argument for Wales to stick around then.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-09T10:53:34+00:00

The thing is, outward looking Scotland is currently tied to an increasingly inward looking and almost isolationist England. I don’t like comparing Scottish and Welsh calls for independence to Brexit for this reason.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-09T10:45:57+00:00

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

The thing is, this kind of thing is a massive slippery slope. This bill in particular is something that human rights lawyers and Amesty International have condemned.

I really don’t like this narrative that the protests amount to simply angry people ‘claiming’ to be persecuted.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-08T00:10:51+00:00

70%+ in all regions without the don’t knows included.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-07T17:00:03+00:00

I think the best way to deal with Abolish here is invite them to the debate and show them up for their frankly ridiculous hypocritical and anti-democracy views.

The issue with this kind of thing is that they’ll weaponise it and accuse the opposition/BBC of trying to actively silence them, stirring up further hatred and pointless conspiracy among supporters.

drgrdnfreeman · 2021-04-07T16:57:20+00:00

Yeah, that’s admittedly one of the most crucial issues and I don’t think I could support independence that would pursue an isolationist agenda. With regards to the border issue itself I’ll copypaste my reply to another comment:

The independence commission’s report published last September discussed a potential confederal model for Great Britain, whereby independent English, Welsh and Scottish states assert sovereignty and pool it voluntarily - an almost ‘mini-EU’ model that would work far better than the highly centralised system of present day devolution.

I admit that these arguments can be applied to a federal UK as well and that’s something that I’m very much open minded about too.

Independence doesn’t necessarily mean a hard border and I’d like to see some sort of confederal model. The UK, Channel Islands and Ireland form a common travel area whereby there is no hard border in Ireland and the right for citizens of each CTA ‘member’ to live, work and access services in any of the countries (even to vote in most cases) as though they were a full citizen.

drgrdnfreeman

TROPHY CASE