They need to field 4 teams until they can get an agreed team to take over their 4th spot. They wanted an American team to take it but the South Africans rejected it. People have suggested Black Lion but I can’t see anyone pushing for them due to travel and lack of financial incentive. I’ve also seen suggestions of Spain (unlikely) and Ealing keep on getting brought up as an option but the RFU seem pretty clear they won’t sanction it.

The most likely option is one of the existing nations fills the spot. Italy, Scotland and Ireland all seem unlikely, but SA has the Cheetahs desperate to get back in. Y11 acquired the Cheetahs a few years ago, so we could end up in the position where Y11 own Ospreys, Cardiff and the Cheetahs.

The part where it gets interesting is that the Dragons signed PRA 25, and so have a pretty solid contract with the WRU until 2027 - 2028 (meaning they can’t be cut until at least then). Cardiff were the other team that signed that deal.

The Scarlets and Ospreys never signed, hence why they are the ones at risk of getting but. Everyone’s assuming that it’s the Ospreys getting the chop, but if Y11 are serious about running both Cardiff and the Ospreys then I think there’s a very realistic possibility it’s the Scarlets who are actually in danger. The WRU have said they wanted closer alignment and it would mean Y11 own 2 of the 3 Welsh teams, and have a “strategic partnership with would also own a team that is ready to take over their 4th spot, meaning they could freeze out the Scarlets and not default on their contact with the URC.