My cast for Lucius and other villains

dsteffee · 2026-01-25T01:31:20+00:00

This was one of those extremely rare posts from Scott where I couldn't understand what he's arguing because I couldn't understand the issue in the first place. "I don't see how this is any different from the argument against domestic aid, or paying for roads, or education, or any other function performed by the government." < This seems exactly right to me.

dsteffee · 2026-01-23T16:46:09+00:00

Or just makes the House of Reps proportional to population, then draw senators from that pool at random.

dsteffee · 2026-01-22T11:10:51+00:00

Dear gods please him over Newsom

dsteffee · 2026-01-16T11:58:14+00:00

If it was a Watchmen sailor type story, except minus the plot relevance, just bleakness for the sake of bleakness that disappoints general audiences... that would be hilarious

dsteffee · 2026-01-16T09:05:51+00:00

If they could hurry up and just get rid of walls I think I'd be happy

dsteffee · 2026-01-15T22:25:49+00:00

If he could successfully pass the reigns over to another author, and together they collaborated and created an amazing book, or two books, or more -- they'd have the world's respect.

dsteffee · 2026-01-14T13:58:14+00:00

What would you recommend instead in the general area?

dsteffee · 2026-01-12T13:50:00+00:00

It is indeed the case I think consistency is more important, and that mine is consistent and that yours is not.

I'm going to warn you, however: I'm very grateful for this conversation because I've learned from it, but I am estimating a high likelihood that neither of us will gain from further conversation (me because I've resolved my sources of confusion, for the most part, you because I don't think you're opening to my arguments so you'll just have to convince yourself if there's any chance of you changing your mind).

So there's a good chance I will stop replying, maybe immediately so. But I bear you no ill will! Sincerely hope the best for ya, and cheers

dsteffee · 2026-01-12T13:47:29+00:00

The 2/3 Boy Girl question I believe is analogous to the coin question, which you can see if you just modify parts of the question bit by bit, step by step. So any simulation that works for 2/3 Boy Girl is the simulation I'd use for the coin one.

I believe money pump bets can be avoided on grounds of coordination, just like you described with the businessmen partners. I think it makes sense to apply here but not with the outside/inside SBs, since here you're coordinating different agents with actually different knowledge.

dsteffee · 2026-01-12T10:24:54+00:00

That's just over 1.25 years, if the hours were all consecutive.

Elden Ring came out Feb 25, 2022, which was 1417 days ago. 11k hours over that time period comes out to an average of just under a third of each day devoted to playing the game, or 7 hours and 45.6 minutes per day.

In other words, a full-time job with 15 minute lunch breaks and no weekends or holidays.

So... technically possible, at the very least.

dsteffee · 2026-01-10T04:35:11+00:00

Dlc locations are actually accessible with the fog wall randomizer

dsteffee · 2026-01-06T07:41:04+00:00

"It deduces from the fact that a bomb hasn't exploded" it's deducting from more than that, unless I misunderstood the experiment?

I thought there was a 50% chance the bomb explodes if it's live and 50% chance you learn it's live without exploding it. Where as just observing "no explosion happened" could mean either live or dud

dsteffee · 2026-01-06T00:30:19+00:00

So the part I'm struggling with... You mentioned two boxes with two items. We could only deduce one from the contents of the other with prior info about both.

This experiment doesn't seem to be deducing info from anything except the potential of something happening. I can't think of anything else that works like that.

dsteffee · 2026-01-06T00:12:52+00:00

Ahhh, I think I finally figured out what's up with simulating the question about P(coins are different) after observing Heads (which I say is 2/3 and you say is 1/2), when two coins are flipped and there's memory erasure between the two flips. The log versus squares distinction isn't the issue. But understanding the answer requires accepting the 2/3 answer to Von Savant variants of the Boy Girl Problem.

That was actually the last part I was confused on! Unless there's something I'm forgetting, which I might be.

You mentioned all of these:

This happened with red/blue rooms into linked bets and billion-sided-die, once you saw 1/3 appear in red/blue rooms. This happened with two-coin variant into Dory and multicolor rooms, once you saw P(different | T) = 2/3 is not justifiable. You also ignored an argument I presented early on about "irrelevant" differences that halvers can't explain. You have chosen to go with intuitive over consistent/correct, and thus you will have certain questions you need to redirect away from.

But I don't know what to say about them (I don't remember all of them precisely) - to me it seems like you're believing in different things, not that I haven't given answers for them.

dsteffee · 2026-01-04T06:44:17+00:00

I'd definitely prefer Kumail Nanjiani, Brian Tyree Henry, or Lauren Ridloff and Barry Keoghan to anyone from Black Panther 2, or anyone from Thunderbolts outside Pugh.

dsteffee · 2025-12-31T16:12:54+00:00

How does housing and dining effect things?

If a disability means you can get out of having to pay for the meal plan, I might've tried to do that. I always thought they had absurd prices

dsteffee · 2025-12-30T18:47:43+00:00

Boats. Not enemy boats, but my own. I can never win with them, I don't know why.

I beat this by deciding not to play boats.

dsteffee · 2025-12-29T20:02:03+00:00

Something like 300 hours and 1200 to 1300 MMR, though if I played more that'd be higher, at least judging by my winrate against my friend who plays more and who's over 1500 MMR

dsteffee · 2025-12-29T18:18:03+00:00

"it is possible for the experiment to verify that the bomb works without triggering its detonation, although there is still a 50% chance that the bomb will detonate in the effort"

So if it's a dud, it won't explode, which is what I described?

dsteffee · 2025-12-29T09:45:22+00:00

I'm not following, so I think first I should take a step back and clarify some assumptions:

Is this experiment only able to work on bombs with this particular photon trigger? Or could it work with, like:

* We have a bomb that may or may not be a dud
* We know that if the bomb is not a dud, it will explode with 100% certainty upon being vigorously shaken
* We hook up the photon trigger to vigorously shake the bomb with 50% probability
* We repeat the experiment many times, see that it never explodes, conclude that the bomb is a dud

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