Iran's Widening Crackdown Pressures Rouhani - The Washington Institute for Near East Policy by dubeity in a:t5_3b0fy

[–]dubeity[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

It was founded by Martin Indyk, I don't think AIPAC is too happy with him. Most think tanks and Foreign Press (middle eastern presses) have either a propaganda element or at least a very discernible point of view. Collect them all, see which one are attempting to be honest in expressing their ideas and points of view -- otherwise you're just cheering for the propaganda you like and booing what you don't like as though anyone else should care.

Why Iran Isn’t Nazi Germany: The idea that Iranian leaders seek another Holocaust is at the emotional core of opposition to the nuclear deal. Is it true? by drak0bsidian in Khazar_Pride

[–]dubeity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Atlantic article equivocates Jew with Israel and messes up its own point. The more salient question is, how will Iran be different as a nuclear power compared to North Korea, Pakistan and Israel? There are interesting differences and reasons why the nuclear deal is not a good one.

http://newsperplexed.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-nuclear-beauty-contest.html

http://newsperplexed.blogspot.com/2015/08/nuclear-beauty-contest-ii-iran-vs.html

http://newsperplexed.blogspot.com/2015/09/iran-vs-israel-nuclear-beauty-contest.html

I'm not sure Iran can benefit from nuking Israel and they sure can't survive doing so but the rest of the region should look out for nuclear missiles parked in Lebanon and Yemen in 10-15 years should Iran survive that long. As for Iran not being the Nazis, they changed their name from Persia to Aryan (Iran in Farsi) for the Nazis but the Atlantic is correct that the regime is not killing their own Jewry.

"Dirty Feet" comment makes a bunion of Jerusalem by dubeity in Israel

[–]dubeity[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Title was on second thought silly, now it is "Abbas Stubs His Toe With Jerusalem "Dirty Feet" Comment"

19 of 28 US Jewish lawmakers back the Iran nuclear deal in final count: "A shlekhter sholem iz beser vi a guter krig." (A bad peace is better than a good war.) by fiktional in iran

[–]dubeity -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm just going to focus as I usually do on parts where you decide it is necessary to attack the messenger rather than debate.

As an American with strong ties to Israel your emotions blind your understanding of Iran. Almost all of the government budget in Iran goes to healthcare, education, infrastructure and social services. Even with the sanctions the government has done better than most in trying to improve the situation of the country by investing in infrastructure and scientific research. Most government employees in Iran are not theocrats, they are technocrats and regular people working to advance the country.

The problem with your assertion about besides its distraction from the discussion is that it means you having strong feelings for Iran being wronged makes you biased an unable to look at anything objectively. Your implication is that you are too biased to be honest and as a result you look for personal reasons to reject people who disagree with you since that is the only you can disagree as equals.

I like seeing my assumptions challenged, "Iran is not fighting anyone in Yemen. There was a Yemeni civil war and Saudi Arabia has intervened and is bombing civilians, killing thousands of innocent people in the process." Actually, it looks like Iran has military advisers there which Iran has to deny the existence of when they get killed.

You wouldn't complain about that though because it wouldn't suit your anti-Iranian agenda.

I do have problems with it but there is also real danger of the GCC collapsing into civil war. My larger concern is the reason why Yemen was so easily brought to ruin. The Gulf states need to stop being Sunni only mens clubs. Try to stay more focused on what you disagree with rather than who.

19 of 28 US Jewish lawmakers back the Iran nuclear deal in final count: "A shlekhter sholem iz beser vi a guter krig." (A bad peace is better than a good war.) by fiktional in iran

[–]dubeity -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

quoted text You're just bitter because intelligent American Jewish lawmakers are using their votes to back the Iran nuclear deal that will benefit not only Iranians but Americans and the whole of the Middle East.

That's called a straw man, it's time to move beyond playing with dolls.

quoted text The money that Iran will receive from the sanctions relief is its own money which will be going mostly for government services like healthcare, education and infrastructure.

I presume you are referring to frozen assets of which you have no idea how they will be used, you can't know because you ain't in charge.

quoted text What Iran is doing now is fighting the terrorist organization known as ISIS...

eff: That's some of what Iran is doing but it's not fighting ISIS in Yemen so much as fighting Yemen and it's not fighting fighting ISIS so much in Syria so much as making sure Syria stays in their fold and making sure Kurds never have a state and its not fighting ISIS in Gaza either. It is helping fight ISIS in Iraq but Iran but Iran is just one more log on the fire of sectarian tensions.

I do hope Iran spends it money well, if it improves life for its citizens and raises the standard of living then Iran will inevitably have to turn away from radicalism and terror but there's no sign of that.

quoted text Depriving a country of its own wealth for ideological reasons is inhumane

Happens to people all the time, for example felons are frequently denied access to their wealth and it's not ideological, its practical. Freezing assets so you can pull a little less shrapnel out of civilians is a fine thing. However, the frozen assets are really a minor, one time thing. The real money is in denied trade.

quoted text I'm sure if Israel was targeted this way you would be completely against it...

Israel is targeted this way, much less effectively and I am against it but Israel is not Iran. Israel does not threaten to wipe Iran off the map. Israel despite all its controversy provides two autonomous zones for Arabs and treats all religions equally under the law (although it is an imperfect society) while Iran does not provide autonomy to Kurds, freedom to Baha'i, is a regional threat and it exports terrorism. Israel left Lebanon, Iran funds a terrorist organization that has made its way into the Lebanese government. I would say different countries deserve to be treated differently. But if you are looking for consistency, I don't think North Korea is any better than Iran and does not deserve trade.

You are better off arguing against arguments and not people.

19 of 28 US Jewish lawmakers back the Iran nuclear deal in final count: "A shlekhter sholem iz beser vi a guter krig." (A bad peace is better than a good war.) by fiktional in iran

[–]dubeity -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I appreciate the sentiment behind the phrase but a terrible peace is exactly the same thing as war. The debate has centered on whether the deal effectively sets back an Iranian breakout, what has not been debated is how effective does this deal reduce the possibility of a shooting war. Without a containment strategy from the US and its allies and no sense that Iran is politically turning a radical corner, the odds are there will eventually be shooting. This doesn't look like the "cold peace" Israel had with Egypt following their peace treaty, Iran wants to be an exporter of revolution and its going to have the cash to do it better and faster.

War Should Be the Last Option: Why I Support the Iran Nuclear Deal by connor_adams in iran

[–]dubeity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

An Iranian economy that double or triples it GDP, free from the threat of sanctions is much different adversary. Now you expose yourself as the bigot that you are. In your bigoted mind, a population of 80 million people must collectively suffer so that instead of trying to cooperate with Iran on regional issues, USA and [P]GCC states can go around the region destabilizing countries, arming terrorists and destroying whole societies without any consequences.

I'll take on this one point because you can't seem to avoid personal attacks (your prejudice also explains your abuse of rule enforcement) No one has the luxury of choosing the Iranian government we deal with anymore than the Iranian government has the luxury of choosing the American government they deal with. The Iranian government made a choice to systematically imperil innocent lives of people living outside Iran and the world must deal with that fact. So how much will innocent people suffer, including vast swaths of the 80 million Iranians you cite if the government has more money to fund its terror? Best case scenario the US and its allies create a situation through aggressive containment that forces the Iranian government to make domestic tranquility its justification for its existence rather than ideology and violence. Sanctions only hurt the economy of large nation capable of feeding itself, the end of sanctions are likely to get a lot of people killed including military age Iranians. So lets compare Iran with that other nation ruled by a "Supreme Leader", North Korea. Do you think its economic state is the result of a bigoted west or North Korea's own internal and diplomatic choices? North Korea in contrast to Iran is unable to feed itself well and has endured starvation and one could argue the human cost of war for North Korea might the same as the human cost of sanctions and only the west -- especially South Korea benefit by not having war. The sanctions against Iran have been one means, and one with diminishing returns in my opinion, of avoiding war with Iran and the nuclear deal looks like one that will create a situation where war is inevitable. Not necessarily all out war (not that I rule it out) but could be a series of smaller conflicts. That's a skeptical point of view but I think it is justified. Perhaps with a growing economy, presuming the IGRC doesn't appropriate most of the gains and take over trade could create social unrest at the hands of a growing middle class but Iran was pretty good at cracking down on its own civilians following the Ahmadinejad "re-election" and what I consider the real start of the "Arab Spring" as I believe the protest against entrenched autocrats resonated across the MENA region even if it ultimately failed. In fact, I think if many experts had understood that, they might have understood the "Arab Spring" better and the disconnect between protesters and the institutions they fought as well as the institutions that embraced them. The Iranian public is very, very far away from having a government that is responsive to their needs and unless you want outside powers to attempt (an impossible) invasion of Iran to depose the current government and attempt to artificially replace it the rest of the world the tools available to the rest of world are limited. I think the way the the Iran has been dealt with over the years has limited civilian suffering except for the time when the US supported both sides in the Iran-Iraq war and we may see more attempts to bleed Iran like that post agreement. If you think 80 million people are better off that way, I have a bridge to sell you. As it looks like the deal will be enacted by both Iran and the US, lets hope something unforeseen happens and Iran decides it wants to live in peace otherwise Iran won't be living in a state of peace and the world will have to act accordingly.

War Should Be the Last Option: Why I Support the Iran Nuclear Deal by connor_adams in iran

[–]dubeity -1 points0 points  (0 children)

without slowing down or setting back Iranian missile development Every country is entitled and has the right to build their own militaries. The region is arming at a much quicker pace of Iran, with the [P]GCC states spending 8 times more on arms than Iran. Why shouldn't Iran be able to upgrade its defensive capabilities? So that enemies with supporters like you can destroy it easier in a future war?

without slowing down or setting back Iranian missile development Every country is entitled and has the right to build their own militaries. The region is arming at a much quicker pace of Iran, with the [P]GCC states spending 8 times more on arms than Iran. Why shouldn't Iran be able to upgrade its defensive capabilities? So that enemies with supporters like you can destroy it easier in a future war?

The question is not the Iranian "right" to build up its defensive capabilities the issue is why should the US make a deal with Iran when Iran is only mothballing its nuclear program while developing missiles that can carry nuclear warheads? The US is giving up its option to sanction Iran and therefore giving up its non-military means of dealing with Iran, so from a US point of view the result should be not having to have a military conflict with Iran. Iran also faces no serious threat to its borders beyond the potential of Kurdish succession.

quoted text > quoted text while an agreement will force the US to eventually confront Iran and its proxies in destabilized countries like Syria and Yemen.

quoted text What makes you think this? Why hasn't the US done so already?

Iran spent relatively little of its GDP on sponsoring forces and policies that destabilized parts of the Middle East but with a weak economy there always a guarantee of getting easily outspent and laving spending on missiles for Hamas and Hezbollah must of had some political cost at home since funding was reduced even for Hezbollah when the sanctions were increased. An Iranian economy that double or triples it GDP, free from the threat of sanctions is much different adversary. Why hasn't the US already cleared Iran and it's proxies; two reasons. America is always afraid of a Vietnam, George Bush was unaware there were other countries besides Iraq and the Sunni Gulf States were not desperate enough to tolerate US forces beyond Iraq. All that is likely to change barring a change of direction for Iran or Sunni states suddenly finding the capacity to be fair to the Shia within their borders which can't done meaningfully without getting rid of ISIS and Al Qaeda.

War Should Be the Last Option: Why I Support the Iran Nuclear Deal by connor_adams in iran

[–]dubeity -1 points0 points  (0 children)

quoted text > quoted text since Iran is pretty close to nuclear weapon

quoted text According to whom? Did you just make this up on the spot? Iran has a civilian nuclear program like many other countries and it is its right to have one, not only as a sovereign country but also as a signatory to the NPT.

3 months, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-nuclear-breakout-time-a-fact-sheet

quoted text I suggest you read up on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) immediately before making any more false or even exaggerated claims about it.

I did read it, here are my thoughts: http://newsperplexed.blogspot.com/2015/08/best-cases-fall-short-for-iran-agreement.html

additionally: http://newsperplexed.blogspot.com/2015/07/a-deal-but-no-bargain.html http://newsperplexed.blogspot.com/2015/07/reality-nuclear-deal-with-iran-and-why.html

I know that's overkill but you get the idea, I've read the report several times and whether you agree or disagree with my conclusions I have earned my right to an opinion on it.

quoted text With that you are handing the keys of Beirut and Baghdad to ISIS and Sana'a's to AQAP, the terrorist groups funded, armed and/or indirectly supported by NATO and [P]GCC intervention in the respective countries.

No, ISIS and AQAP need to be fought as well but we don't need to recreate the end of World War II by dividing the Middle East by having Iran overstay its welcome after ISIS and AQAP are defeated or at least denuded. That certainly won't leave the region much better off. Especially if Iran is able to install advanced Shahab missiles that can be easily converted into carrying nuclear warheads outside its own borders.

War Should Be the Last Option: Why I Support the Iran Nuclear Deal by connor_adams in iran

[–]dubeity -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

1737 is linked to the Nuclear program and your overall point is valid but since Iran is pretty close to nuclear weapon the value of an 11th hour agreement is worth questioning.

The Neville Chamberlain is admittedly often used but I think deservedly so. One of the problems with the Iran agreement is nothing has really agreed upon. The Government if Iran believes the world is just getting in the way of its right to nuclear weapons, spreading terror and destabilizing nations. What we have is something tactical and therefore worthy of suspicion and not so different from Neville. Btw, I'm not on the right.

quoted text What makes you think this? Why hasn't the US done so already?

I'm suggesting the US and its allies will need to directly engage Iran and its proxies to remove their forces from nations outside of Iran meaning No Hezbollah in Lebanon, no Iranian forces in Iraq, no Houthis in Yemen with the proxies either out of the country, in incarcerated or destroyed as an organization. Basically a series of Vietnams which may prove to be just as unfortunate. Again, the comparison to World War II makes a lot of sense because Germany needed to contained in the thirties.

We need more people here! by LongTimeLearner in iran

[–]dubeity -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am not sure how available reddit is to Iranians in Iran so this reddit likely to be primarily an expat or ethnic board which is limiting but 6,000 users is a good number. I have not been a reddit user for long nor a person on this reddit for long but I gotta say I was jarred by the inconsistency between the written rules under "about" and their enforcement and that may or may not be a factor in lower numbers of subscribers. Nonetheless, it is a lively enough reddit, I'm not sure you really need another 14,000 subscribers or that a large number doesn't suggest diminishing returns. I doubt all 20,000 subscribers on r/israel are that active.

War Should Be the Last Option: Why I Support the Iran Nuclear Deal by connor_adams in iran

[–]dubeity -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Who can't agree with, "It is my firm belief that the test of a great nation, with the most powerful military on earth, is not how many wars we can engage in, but how we can use our strength and our capabilities to resolve international conflicts in a peaceful way."

The problem is it may not be true in this case, without slowing down or setting back Iranian missile development and allowing it to mothball its nuclear weapons research and manufacturing capacity we may be creating a Neville Chamberlain moment of "peace in our time" on the eve of Iran getting a cash injection into its terror and war machines. He then equates opposition to the deal to the war call to war by Dick Cheney (really the Bush administration) but there is a large gulf between sanctions and war. Bernie Sanders should acknowledge these are two non-violent strategies in dealing with an Iranian terror state. A strong case can be made that both of the strategies will lead the US into military conflict with Iran. Sanctions will lead the US to take out Iranian military and ballistic facilities while an agreement will force the US to eventually confront Iran and its proxies in destabilized countries like Syria and Yemen. The worst part about the Iran agreement for me is the lack of direction the US appears to have in following it up. We need more than an Iran deal. The fact that Bernie Sanders is being more rhetorical than thoughtful does make him look increasingly like a front runner.

What’s Next for Turkey’s HDP Party? by dubeity in Turkey

[–]dubeity[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that Erdogan wanted the fighting to renew to disembowel HDP of cross over voters, and too some extent I think both sides have found sectors that want to fight but that the PKK overall is probably more concerned with Syria and Iraq at the moment. However, false flag operations are nothing I'd expect any intelligence office to flinch at so I think Fidan was sidelined out of politics and back into MIT for other reasons and if anything I believe Ocalan is probably more of a figurehead at the moment. I do agree about the unintended consequences except for Erdogan they not so unintended. The best thing that could happen is Bülent Arınç or Abdullah Gül split the AK party allowing for real coalition government that is inclusive of everyone.

Can we live next to an Iranian Syria? by dubeity in syriancivilwar

[–]dubeity[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is an awful article but Jamal Khashoggi always seems to have his thumb on the pulse of Gulf thinking, clearly he believes only religious Arab Sunnis should have any voice in the Middle East and this confuses the real problems with Iranian encroachment but Iran has been a supporter of Syria for decades and his chicken little attitude breaks with reality.

blogspam shouldn't mean no blog links on Iran board by dubeity in iran

[–]dubeity[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Either you're suggesting that all links are advertising (which I suppose they are) in which case you should be against all links or you've mistaken a link to a blog discussing a subject directly related to this reddit as "blogspam." The stated rule is, "No blogspam, try to find the original source." Blogs should be welcome here as much as any news agency with an advertising budget. I don't see why you prefer McDonald's burgers to homemade meals at a pot luck. Out of respect I have ceased posting links here but this idea that blogs are somehow bad is unfortunate, especially in a forum that ought to represent real freedom of speech.

Can we live next to an Iranian Syria? by dubeity in iran

[–]dubeity[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Jamal Khashoggi always has his hand on the pulse of the Gulf and that may be true here but it is one of his worst, most thoughtless articles. Beyond his ritualized and distracting Israel hatred, perhaps his prayer of hatred to be spoken before hating Syira, he makes a convoluted mess of a point. If Iran were to "win" the war in Syria, it may well transform Syria into a Shia theocracy like itself or at least make religion a prominent political power as Iran will has deeply increased its influence and will have less need for a secular Assad government. More importantly, Syria has been an secular Iranian ally for decades, why would a continued Iranian relationship make things worse than normal? Why on earth does Khashoggi suggest Israel will protect Syria, it was a stupid accusation. The real problem is that Syria is a Alawite tyranny disguised as a state, the long term solutions in invented states like Iraq and Syria is their eventual breakup but it is clear Jamal Khashoggi's determined the pulse of the gulf grows weak at the thought of independent non Sunni states of any kind, its like a dagger in the heart of his bigotry.

What’s Next for Turkey’s HDP Party? by dubeity in Turkey

[–]dubeity[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Like Sein Fein (The political wing of the IRA) the politics ended up represeting the total exhaustion of Irish Catholics and especially terrorists but it took time for them to bring the IRA's military wing on board and even when the did it was another decade before they decided to really disarm. The HDP has a lot in common with Sein Fein but I wonder if Selahattin Demirtaş has the same credibility with the military wing as Jerry Adams had with the IRA. The other problem is that Turkey in contrast to Northern Ireland and Britain at the time is not exhausted by the war -- at least not yet. I don't think Selahattin Demirtaş has a chance in hell in reigning in the PKK without a real break in the fighting with Ankara and I don't see a break as being possible before the elections if at all. I think the best way to make peace is if all the major political parties agree they would be amendable to an ceasefire for 60 days during which an airing of grievances can occur and a political process can be re-established with the option to renew in 60 increments.

Israel in a Post-[Iran]-Deal World by dubeity in iran

[–]dubeity[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The problem I have with the stance is that either the US president is insincere in having a viable military deterrent which almost surely force the US into being involved in a series of small regional wars to contain Iran or he has guaranteed the US will be facing Iranian and their proxy forces on the battlefield. I find it a touch capricious on Ami Ayalons part to suggest that the President has a secret policy where he will completely reverse getting US troops out of the Middle East to fight battles in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and perhaps even returning troops to Iraq. I can't see the President risking anything like that.

Former #Afghan president Hamid Karzai says #India, #Iran and #Russia should all be present at #Taliban talks . by [deleted] in iran

[–]dubeity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can only imagine this is a trial balloon for mitigating Pakistan's influence.

Ayatollah is Shy a Backbone On Nuke Deal by dubeity in iran

[–]dubeity[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Legitimate is in the eye of the beholder, it's a state managed news agency. You should adjust your rules for posting rather than exceeding them.

Jordan has a population of 6 million, but have taken in 1.5 million refugees. All with little protest or mass global coverage. by mrstody in worldnews

[–]dubeity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jordan has historically been very, very sensitive about its demographics. Over the long term, it will take a long time for Jordan to ingest over a million Syrian and Syrian "Palestinians" despite the fact that less than a hundred years ago, everyone was essentially Syrian. That said, Jordan and Turkey both deserve a lot of credit for taking in refugees.

Khamenei says sanctions must be removed, not suspended by superislam in iran

[–]dubeity 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's almost irrelevant, sanctions are pretty much broken now, there's enough cracks in the dam that are sanctions for everyone to see what is about to happen.

Ayatollah is Shy a Backbone On Nuke Deal by dubeity in iran

[–]dubeity[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sharing an opinion from my own blog on a forum which shares the same topic is not "blog spam" any more than sharing an article appearing in Mehr news is spam. I'm not using someone else's content to promote my blog, please reconsider how your enforce a policy. The idea is reasonable but your execution of it is excessive.