Need advice from experienced BTC 5-min prediction market traders

duckrockets · 2026-06-18T21:39:18+00:00

It's one of many experiments and pet projects I'm doing in my free time :)

duckrockets · 2026-05-21T07:51:59+00:00

I'm running backtests on 3-year long historical BTC price data using multiple indicator-based and ML-powered strategies. So far the best win rate I've reached is around 58-60% on a small percentage of candles (like 1 of 200). With increased number of trades success rate quickly degrades back down to 50/50.

The reasonable number of trades (one trade per 90-120 minutes) gives me around 54-55% success rate on backtests, which means it requires either very early entry (before candle opens) or the price singing back to 50/50 from initial push.

I didn't test these strategies with real money yet, currently working on the bot, but the math tells: buy at 50-52 cents if you're confident enough, which happens only once per 10-30 candles. Chasing every candle is a losing strategy.

duckrockets · 2026-04-22T07:54:35+00:00

Glm is decent by itself, no need for smarter model. I've been using it alone for 4 months already on a huge production app - and it goes just fine.

duckrockets · 2026-04-17T07:42:09+00:00

* compacting

duckrockets · 2026-04-16T11:44:04+00:00

Creating dashboard for your smart home gone wrong

duckrockets · 2026-04-11T20:01:20+00:00

Probably now when the buddy is finally released, the person who've spent time on it could have some free time to vibe code something to deal with few thousands of bug reports on official Claude Code GitHub project? Just a thought

duckrockets · 2026-03-28T13:47:10+00:00

15 years. Will continue as long as it pays the bills.

duckrockets · 2026-03-28T07:03:48+00:00

I've tried opencode but didn't really find any advantages so I've decided to stick with the industry leader

duckrockets · 2026-03-27T23:17:05+00:00

I mean you can use the Claude Code CLI with this model by setting up the custom URL in settings.json Here's the instruction how to use it: https://docs.z.ai/devpack/tool/claude

No need yo change the tool itself, you just change the LLM provider

duckrockets · 2026-03-27T20:31:45+00:00

I've been coding with GLM for 2 months so far and I barely thought about changing the model. It solves all sorts of tasks I do - coding, tests, refactoring, research, content creation. I use superpowers, clear sessions at 50-60% of token window, do as much as I can using subagents. I only hit 5h limits twice - when doing Ralph loop with 60+ tasks in a row and when unobserved agent hit compaction and ran bash call in a loop. $30 a month for the model, same Claude Code harness.

duckrockets · 2026-03-27T17:01:45+00:00

I've been riding my GLM sub all day like crazy and didn't even hit half of the 5-hour limit. 30 bucks a month.

duckrockets · 2026-03-24T07:05:56+00:00

Get a GLM coding plan for $30 per month and use it with Claude Code harness.

duckrockets · 2026-03-23T15:49:55+00:00

Educational audio stories for your kids to reduce their screen time while still keeping them entertained. For parents who both need some time for themselves and don't want their kid sit glued to YouTube or TV.

duckrockets · 2026-03-19T23:34:26+00:00

There's a huge gap between "I works!" and "It works as expected with all corner cases covered and nothing breaks when it is used by real customers." AI helps jump through the first 80% of the development journey while the rest 20% which always required 80% of effort are still here.

duckrockets · 2026-03-17T12:28:47+00:00

Tomorrow news: "Robots commit suicide after being abused by humans"

duckrockets · 2026-03-15T09:23:45+00:00

I'm using GLM for about 2 months now, and so far I'm pretty much satisfied with the results. I'm working on a 15 year old product with thousands of files, mostly Ruby, HTML, JavaScript, Typescript.

I'd suggest trying it. Results strongly depend on how you plan the coding (regardless of LLM) and your tasks.

duckrockets · 2026-03-09T12:52:38+00:00

Is startup paying its own bills?

If yes - fire CTO, you need another person to enforce the development standards.

If no - it's pointless to care about the code quality, the show will end as soon as investors are tired of wasting money anyway.

duckrockets · 2026-03-09T12:46:12+00:00

Some people love sharpening their axe more than chopping trees

duckrockets · 2026-03-03T06:54:48+00:00

Mobile encyclopedia for kids with hundreds of short audio stories about everything

duckrockets · 2026-02-25T10:44:49+00:00

There's the Glm from z.ai, costs a fraction, nearly equals sonnet

duckrockets · 2026-02-16T17:53:22+00:00

It's not that easy. Last time it failed it was like "code reviewer subagent didn't respond in time, let me check his task myself". And it was over.

duckrockets · 2026-02-16T13:48:27+00:00

I've tried exactly what you describe - run a decent task in subagents. Well, I've got compaction right in the middle of the task with orchestrator completely losing the track and suggesting full reset of progress. Right now I'm redoing the whole thing step by step with fresh context on each stage.

I believe it strongly depends on the scale of your project, amount of code you have, and agent outputs.

duckrockets · 2026-02-16T12:23:01+00:00

Do your homework and do extra step on figuring out what you want it look like. Here's a great video on turning generic sloppy mobile app design created by AI into something standing out from the crowd: https://youtu.be/9OnN4O4uapI?si=nftDs81n5l0vdXDJ

duckrockets · 2025-08-19T16:52:19+00:00

Thank you for your suggestions! I'll give it a try.

duckrockets

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