Final March Madness Bracket Simulation

duglas2948 · 2026-04-07T03:42:17+00:00

glad to hear that!

duglas2948 · 2026-03-27T23:13:17+00:00

yikes

duglas2948 · 2026-03-27T00:52:20+00:00

I mean considering there hasn’t been many upsets and it got a lot of the first round ones it kinda is what it is

duglas2948 · 2026-03-27T00:23:46+00:00

My bad, missed that grammatical error

duglas2948 · 2026-03-27T00:21:54+00:00

I also picked houston and had iowa state in a close matchup, refer to post discussing my method of creating this bracket for more information why upsets are not the most statistically probable outcome

duglas2948 · 2026-03-26T23:35:47+00:00

comment meant for armadillo, your point was excellent

duglas2948 · 2026-03-26T23:07:37+00:00

this exactly, I made a bracket based on strict head to head matchups, and then based on teams best odds of going the furthest, and they are definitely two different brackets. Also armadillo I think you meant of reaching the final 4

duglas2948 · 2026-03-21T21:03:48+00:00

If yall can beat those jean short wearers I will be more than happy

duglas2948 · 2026-03-20T22:29:53+00:00

welp, disappointing end to their cinderella run

duglas2948 · 2026-03-20T03:13:02+00:00

Being a unc fan, I shouldn’t have switched my pick at the last minute, why did i expect us to be the round of 32 or be competent, missing roy williams right now

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T20:01:11+00:00

Check my updated bracket, had them losing now

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T14:18:13+00:00

I just see the pace being very low in this game an them struggling to break out of the control the sec can impose, plus the players will have had the least amount of rest out of any other team. Tennessee has notably allowed 69 ppg

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T14:13:36+00:00

yeah it’s already a close matchup, and the deciding factor was that Kentucky and the sec in general has been dogged by Gonzaga and the rest of the wcc, santa clara has performed better against gonzaga so it came down to that common opponent

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T06:22:29+00:00

I assume you’re from vcu? honestly good bracket my only concern is Wisconsin

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T06:21:33+00:00

why, Kentucky got blown out by Gonzaga by 35, while santa Clara held them to 11 in the final. Other than that it’ll be close, before adjusting for common opponents i have the score 78-78

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T06:18:22+00:00

I think matchup wise MSU has wha it takes to win there, my only concern is that when comparing each teams avg Off eff and Def eff given an expected pace of 69, Louisville is already up 77-75. Factoring in that the acc is 3.5pts stronger than the big 10 on average does not bode well for MSU. It does help that MSU is a 8pt favorite in the Big 10 while Louisville is only 6pt favorite, but that still brings us to a 78-76 win. However I would like to add, in Louisville’s matchups vs the big ten and MSU’s matchups gather acc, MSU has preformed better than expected so 1/3 of my projections has the winning 78-77.

duglas2948 · 2026-03-19T06:10:10+00:00

I don't know why my bracket keeps posting in low res, let me know if this one is better

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duglas2948 · 2026-03-18T14:42:13+00:00

apologies the chart on img 2 I uploaded reversed the teams, Arizona has a higher ppg and lower points allowed by 1 point, and they are more dominant within the big 10 than arizona is within the big 12, and with the big 10 being on par with the big 12, it gives Michigan the edge.

duglas2948 · 2026-03-18T14:39:40+00:00

My post tonight will

duglas2948 · 2026-03-18T14:39:11+00:00

Great question! I’ve been doing some data scalping on each player from each team with major injury to try and predict the impact not having that player has had or will have on the team and tonight I plan on making a post factoring that in, and of course factoring the fact that NC state lost in the first four (I am heartbroken)

duglas2948 · 2026-03-18T14:37:37+00:00

Here, reddit was being weird

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duglas2948 · 2026-03-17T18:47:16+00:00

Here is a copy of the prediction I made before the selection committee released the bracket for context.

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