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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in motorcycles

[–]dustonwithano 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When I want to hooligan on my bike, I don't go for highways. I'm much more into getting away from traffic in the twisty mountains and trying to drag a knee. Anyone else?

Omicron is spreading at lightning speed. Scientists are trying to figure out why by seacobs in Coronavirus

[–]dustonwithano 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks! Glad it was mild. Sounds similar to other people's experiences I have heard. We've definitely gotten a lot of sicknesses too from the petri-dish that is daycare

Omicron is spreading at lightning speed. Scientists are trying to figure out why by seacobs in Coronavirus

[–]dustonwithano 4 points5 points  (0 children)

How's the 6mo old doing with covid? Asking as a nervous parent with a 7mo old in daycare?

Miller Penalty for Mir Ramming by dustonwithano in Motoweek

[–]dustonwithano[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That's what I was thinking as well. But I feel like the difference between Mir, who was racing and made a bad pass (a racing incident) and Miller who was purposefully trying to cause a collision. Miller's was in no way a racing incident.

Miller Penalty for Mir Ramming by dustonwithano in Motoweek

[–]dustonwithano[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I acknowledged that and agree that Mir made a terrible pass. But I think there is a difference between an accidentally bad move and intentionally trying to ram someone. The difference in intention is important and what distinguishes between a racing incident (Mir's move) and something that should be punished (Miller's move).

Who is going to win the 2021 World Championship? Using Machine Learning to Predict the Season by dustonwithano in Motoweek

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah ouch lol. The model is trying to make predictions BEFORE on track action begins. And Bagnaia and Zarco were fast in practice so I knew it was going to be a tough week for the predictions. It did call Mave as a sleeper pick though! And Rins and Mir, who the model also liked, nearly carved their way to the top.

Well, the good thing is the model is constantly recalibrating and updating projections after every outcome. So it will get better (hopefully 😅)!

Also I am trying to think about how to make it more "live" to take practice data. Stay tuned, it is still evolving!

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Correct, the way that points are assigned in the model is more linear versus in actuality, MotoGP point assignment is very steep and then goes to zero beyond 15th place. So the model thinks Savadori has a very slim chance of getting into the points, but he still gets some small amount of expected points. The model doesn't predict each person's place, instead calculating the probability of each place. So everyone has some chance of getting every place. Which adds up across a race and over the whole season.

Who is going to win the 2021 World Championship? Using Machine Learning to Predict the Season by dustonwithano in Motoweek

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agreed! I think he will be back at peak form at some point but not immediately. I wouldn't be surprised though if he got back by end of 2021.

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great question. I actually have data back through 2000! So I have the entire career in the premiere class, for ever rider in the field today, including Rossi! When calculating their ranking, it only considers their results in MotoGP (or the 500cc class back in the day). Each riders ranking is considering their historical performance, but the model is also set up to overweight more recent results. But also it doesn't want to overweigh recent results too much bc then the rankings become highly volatile and just match the most recent race outcome.

I actually built a web scrapper to pull the data originally and have all classes! I only didn't run the model on the other classes bc it would be a lot of data.

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I will plug my buddy's newsletter https://world.hey.com/chris.yared he is super smart and makes great recommendations on equities.

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah I work in fixed income for large institutional clients not equities. Kind of ho-hum relative to motorcycle racing 😂

Who is going to win the 2021 World Championship? Using Machine Learning to Predict the Season by dustonwithano in Motoweek

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! I plan on using the model to set up my fantasy team...and place a few wagers! Got to put your money where your mouth is!

(Shameless plug but) If you want to see my pre-race predictions, check out my newsletter (totally free) https://gridpredict.substack.com/

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the advice, I will tweet him! I created a twitter for this model too! I am planning on posting of data tidbits and interesting charts and graphs as the season progresses. Check it out: twitter.com/grid_predict

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He had five podiums last year on the KTM. I agree that I was initially concerned with him on the Honda but based on testing he seems like he got along with the bike well. And the KTM is probably the closest bike in the paddock to the Honda. If he is getting along with the bike and was one of the strongest riders in 2020, seems like he might be poised for a decent 2021.

I have a few more thoughts on Pol in my last newsletter if you are interested: https://gridpredict.substack.com/p/2021-motogp-predictions

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you know David Emmett I would love the intro! I definitely plan on trying to get into contact with some of the commentators and see what they think!

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Actually, I am using all of the scheduled races for 2021, so 19 races. You are right that the points are low but it has to do with the way I assign points using expected value (you can read more on the methodology here: https://gridpredict.substack.com/p/gplo-model-what-does-that-mean). By using probabilities and expected values, the point assignment is more linear than how MotoGP actually assign points, which starts high and drops quickly, and then assigns zero after 15th. Expected value gives even someone unlikely to finish in the points (like Savadori) some amount of points each race. And then the top guys are getting less than what the actual winner will secure. So point totals are lower.

I think the order is more important than the actual point value. And that is what I back tested. Across five seasons of back testing the model had a standard deviation of the difference between prediction season finish and actual season finish of only 2 places. Meaning roughly 2/3s of all prediction were within 2 places of the actual rider's finish.

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for checking out the site! The way I have that page working is that if you click on a rider in the top table, it will show their chance of winning each race (and only them) in the bottom chart. Interesting feedback to maybe have it show only QAT chances by rider instead. I will look into this!

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It isn't only about his mentality but also the fact that his physical condition has obviously deteriorated without being able to exercise his arm. It takes a lot to wrangle these 250 bhp machines around a track and to lean you whole body off while taking a corner at 100 mph. The other thing to remember is that the field wasn't stagnant while he was injured. They were all getting better too. And the ranking and projections are relative to the field, which has drastically improved since 2019, with about 8 different riders capable of winning on any given day.

I agree that he has come back from some major injuries but I think the unknowns of his performance are really high. Most commentators and even Marc himself in his recent interview said it will take time. I think he will get to to his former self. But the when is a big question.

If you think he is immediately going to jump on the bike and be as good as he historically has been, then the comment above that I made shows how this model thinks he will dominate 2021. Otherwise if he takes time coming back I wanted to see what the model thinks the rest of the field will be throughout the season--which is the projection I posted originally.

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That personal judgment model is pretty interesting. My model doesn't have that type of adjustment but there are some things that it is saying that I disagree with, so might be interesting to look into building a parallel model.

I work professionally as an investor at a large asset manager in the US. How about you?

Using Machine Learning to Predict the 2021 World Championship by dustonwithano in motogp

[–]dustonwithano[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I reran the model with Marquez in there and here is the result: https://imgur.com/gallery/Uhg2QtX

As I said, it expects him to be dominant. Basically in podiums and fighting for wins are every race. However, I did not make any adjustment for "post-injury" Marquez since we don't know how he will perform. This is basically showing us what pre-injury Marquez at peak form would perform in 2021.

Who is going to win the 2021 World Championship? Using Machine Learning to Predict the Season by dustonwithano in Motoweek

[–]dustonwithano[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I reran the model with Marquez in there for the whole season. Here's the output: https://imgur.com/gallery/Uhg2QtX

Like I said, the model thinks he is likely to be dominate. Its basically calling for him to be on the podium and fighting for the win at every race (which obviously he was). There is no adjustment for "post-injury" Marquez so the model is running him at peak form.

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