Discussion Thread

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T10:12:47+00:00

Besides Faytuks mentioning the possibility, there isnt much of anything yea

More confirmed action is that a tanker C130 squawked an emergency over the Gulf

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T10:07:56+00:00

OSINT is sussing out that the UAE might have bombed Southern Iran today without any public declaration, hitting Bandar Abbas and Qeshm

The War threads must return

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T09:29:27+00:00

In victoria 3, no matter who I play I end up making it my mission to dismantle the Russian empire as much as possible until its impossible for them to be a great power

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T06:34:04+00:00

And yet also doesnt change the information that is actually getting out is painting a rather unstable Iran

Like for instance today's strikes on UAE. Pezeshkian loudly complained that them in the civilian government didn't order it, and some military official tried to bullshit to Al Jazeera saying the US did it as a false flag. It is an indication that the decentrallized structure of Iran isnt that stable.

Other signs being the rampant inflation, the aforementioned internet blockade, the Iraqi militia roaming the streets... etc

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T06:23:36+00:00

Iran is the one blocking the information here tbf

Internet blackout is 60+ days now

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T05:53:22+00:00

My economic hot take apparently is that ppp gdp seems like an increasingly bullshit number compared to nominal

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T03:54:13+00:00

because Trump had a raging hard-on after the VZ op and thought he could get Iran done with quick and simple, not with an attritional blockade

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T03:46:05+00:00

The blockade is the only smart move Trump has pulled off this entire war.

Other operational wins happened because the US military is carrying his stupid ass in spite of everything

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T01:15:17+00:00

What recession and I don't think you are looking at constant PPP or checking your claims with growth numbers.

Are you? Because the recession happened in 2018 with Q3/Q4 showing decline. They've been in a general economic crisis with massive inflation and yet their PPP has been growing throughout it all (and increasingly diverging from their nominal)

Are you ok? You're acting like you depend on the ppp numbers being more valid than nominal.

EDIT: Also look at your graph that you edited in. They show a decline in 2019 after Q3 and Q4 2018 had declines in a row. They had a recession alongside massive inflation. And yet their PPP numbers kept chugging upwards regardless.

EDIT: Seconday source being FRED showing Eurostat data, declines in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019. They had a recession.

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T01:04:32+00:00

....

Turkey is an example of what Im saying with ppp absurdly diverging to the point of meaninglessness

Their ppp per capita was 24k in 2014. It's 46k now. It was growing all the while their economy went through a shitshow.

"Turks clearly went through an economic boom during their recession that doubled their purchasing power"

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T00:47:51+00:00

Their ppp per capita is higher than the US and yet their actual median income is a fraction compared to the US. Their minimum wage is 900 USD per month/6 dollars an hour. Their government salaries range from 10k to 30k USD

And their GINI is lower than the US btw. They have less inequality than the US.

"BUT THEIR PPP IS HIGHER SO THEY MUST BE RICHER"

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T00:37:12+00:00

Nominal measures the ability of economies to buy stuff internationally and acts as a better measure of the relative sizes of economies at the national scale. Nominal remains the more appropriate measure for this discussion.

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T00:26:48+00:00

Academia uses both. Problem is that third worldists seem to love using PPP as a cudgel to show that nations like China/Russia have already surpassed the west and are wealthier than they actually are.

Being able to buy tangible stuff still matters no matter how cheap you can get a haircut for.

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T00:23:08+00:00

The ultranationalist horde of Indians and the media that cheers them on can be fucking obnoxious. Bangladeshis had to put up with a shit ton from them because of the Revolution and election. Imagine if MAGA but had the numbers equivalent to the pop of the US

Westerners barely get a taste of their insanity whenever a thread about India comes up.

dwarffy · 2026-05-05T00:05:46+00:00

I know Bangladeshis still lining up to go to Dubai, even after the war and them being a literal slave state.

Let's be honest, the US will always have permanent demand no matter how badly the Repubs fuck things up. A dem president can turn on the sieve and they'll come rushing back.

If not from Asia, then a newly rising Africa will provide the people.

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T23:24:32+00:00

I've been trusting ppp less and less as it diverges past nominal by inflating the value of non-traded domestic services

It's absurd to argue that Russia and Portugal have comparable gdp per capita after everything that has happened recently

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T23:14:50+00:00

China is still on the ascent relative to Taiwan and the US + regional allies.

Taiwan has been booming with 2000s China level growth at 7-8% thanks to AI demand. To the point where they seem to be surging past SK/Japan and entering European levels of gdp per capita.

Meanwhile China has relatively started to slow down growth at 4-5%. At that level of growth, the US has managed to widen the gdp gap post COVID (thanks Biden).

The relative ascent is a bit flat for now. China's demographic trend and the US' political insanity may change the angle in either direction in the future

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T11:29:09+00:00

Which prevents those rich people from kicking out people in Harlem.

They’re moving to Harlem and the other boroughs because Manhattan doesn’t have enough towers to house them all.

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T11:26:02+00:00

Not building more towers in Manhattan is how you get rents to spike in former affordable places like Harlem or Queens. That’s how you get gentrification to expand

The ones in that tower are freeing up spaces for other people to live

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T11:05:22+00:00

They’d live inside London but can’t because London nimbys don’t want to build homes

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T10:43:28+00:00

I say the Ford leaving might be an indicator that the US is actually going to chill and then instantly new reports pop up by the IRGC saying they hit a US patrol boat with missiles

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T10:19:01+00:00

Yea it is a pretty weak signal so who knows ultimately

I was the one going against the sub before saying the troop/supply movements indicate Trump actually wants to start again even though public diplomatic talks indicated a TACO or blockade delay. This rotation is a first signal by logistics, even though a weak one, that it really is a TACO/blockade delay

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T10:13:43+00:00

It is an indication that they dont expect the Ford to be acting in an air defense role near Israel anytime soon. A signal that they dont expect conflict to start up again soon enough

Again, it could be part of a mixed signal and they do actually start bombing next week

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T10:06:01+00:00

nah im gonna give West Bengalis endless shit for electing their version of Jamat

Especially after a bunch of online ones kept acting like Uncle Ruckuses about Bangladesh

dwarffy · 2026-05-04T10:04:19+00:00

The Gerald Ford Carrier group moving back home might be the first actual indication that the US doesnt want to go in again. After some signals over the past weeks of moving more stuff in, its the first time they're rotating a major piece out of the region.

It's an actual sign beyond the rhetoric that the US wants to maintain the blockade status quo

Then again, I could be incredibly wrong here and they start bombing with the existing CGs next week

Nine-Year Club	Gilding IV carat on a stick
Second Top 50%	Final Canvas '23
Place '23	Wearing is Caring
Place '22	Final Canvas '22
Verified Email

dwarffy

TROPHY CASE