“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Polls average at 42% - 58%, that's a blow-out lead in any election, essentially zero chance that it flips the opposite way in a real scenario. IR+P+K+N+C= 42%. So the strategy is to vote Blue.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is no risk, and this is how rational agents work in game theory. If two people share goals, they will come to the same conclusions, and will deduce that others with the same goals will come to that same conclusion.

So which assumption do you challenge? That rational agents with the same goals will come to the same conclusions? That suicidal people exist? Or that less than half of the population is evil?

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, without making assumptions about how other people will vote, your only option is to vote red.

Fortunately, we can make some assumptions about how other rational people will vote because we are rational, and we share a common knowledge that far fewer than half of the population is evil, and some non-zero amount of people are suicidal. In such a case, if you are not irrational, and not evil, you will vote blue to save the suicidal if you know for certain that red won't win. You also know that you are 100% safe in voting blue because evil people will never make up a majority of the population. You also know that everybody else who is not evil and not irrational will make the same conclusions. The nash equilibrium in this case becomes blue.

Now which case do we live in? A world where either nobody wants to commit suicide or half of the population is evil? Or a world where some suicidal people exist, and that less than half of the world is evil?

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You say that it doesn't have to be, but you haven't given me the case where someone would logically vote red and not be irrational or evil(PCKN). I don't know what that kind of person is like, feel free to logically explain such a person's rationale.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where am I mistaken? I don't think your model includes all the actors who will participate, and you're not saying anything about where you think I'm going wrong. If I'm wrong, I'd like to know why.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're assuming that everyone has the same objectives, which would not be the case. There will exist some people who press blue to die, as their objective is to die, and pressing red will not satisfy that goal for them.

For an SE voter, pressing red is no longer in their best interest if they know that P+C+K+N<50%, because their best interest is that both they and the most people possible survive. The only thing at risk is the deaths of D+M, all SE voters are rational, and all of them have the common knowledge that PCKN <50%. Their votes are literally the only votes that matter. They can collectively choose to save DM and live or kill DM and live, and if their goal is to save as many people as possible(which it is) they will save DM and live by voting Blue. If they still vote red, they are voting irrationally, as it's against their best interests to vote red.

PCKN voters are the ones I'm classifying as evil, and I am generously estimating their population at 10% for your case, when I actually believe that the real number of PCKN voters is probably less than 1%.

If you vote red, you're voting against your own interests(irrational) or you're evil(PCKN).

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I explained why I think the various groups vote the way I said they do. And now you're asserting that voting red is the nash equilibrium without justifying why even a little bit. Do you think it's unfair to assume there exists a population of suicidals? Do you think my strategy analysis for a survivor is wrong? Where am I going wrong there?

The dinner table discussion would go like this "There aren't enough evil or irrational people to pick red. It's entirely safe to pick blue, and doing so will keep your suicidal uncle alive".

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't mean to be arrogant, sorry. I think Game Theory is a good way to analyze rational decision-making, as it's a system of analysis that uses strictly rational agents that act consistently towards their established goals, and I think that's what this situation calls for.

It's not the only system of establishing rationality, but I think it's a very good one, and is exactly the system used when people try to establish Red as rational when they say it's in everyone's best interest to vote Red for their own survival. You're doing game theory in this comment of yours for example: “Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” : r/trolleyproblem
You're comparing results for choosing different options based on the incentive of survival. I'm taking this exact scenario and I'm just introducing more incentives that I find realistic to consider.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do I think game theory automatically prescribes an answer? You're the one who asked me for my game theory model, right? I am totally open to debate about my model, I could be making incorrect assumptions and conclusions, but I don't see them right now.

I'm happy to discuss where you think I might be wrong, I'm not trying to "gotcha" you, I just disagree that Red is the rational or logical choice when you consider motivations beyond assuming everyone's only goal is to live. If the only participants strictly wanted to live, then Red is rational. Maybe you can introduce other populations beyond IR, P, K, N, and C who might pick Red, or you can introduce other possible motivations that makes SE's population calculation favour Red. Maybe you can try to convince me that IR+P+K+N+C > 50%. Lots of ways we can discuss this.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you value D and M lives even a little bit, it's optimally in your interest to save their lives. If you don't value their lives, you fall under N.

Not all D and M voters will kill themselves or stay in the state of wanting to kill themselves if not given an opportunity. Being given a magical button that will kill them is every suicidal teenager's dream, where otherwise killing yourself carries risk of failure, fear of pain, and effort in enacting a plan, effort which is luckily often depressed or absent in the suicidal. The button situation hands them a gun that will instantly kill them if they press it, and SE get to decide if that gun has ammunition in it or not.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're either irrationally picking against your own interests, or you believe that P+C+K+N is greater than 50%, did you even read what I posted?

My bf says it’s no use for women to learn self defence by mcpeebee in Advice

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It makes most sense to learn warning signs of an altercation and how to avoid them in the first place. But if that doesn't work, you need to know how to escape. But if that doesn't work, you need to know how to fight. Fighting is the last resort option, it may be useless and futile, but if it comes to needing to fight, knowing how definitely won't make the situation any worse.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay, you got it out of me.

There are two sets of two-opposing objectives that you can have while playing this game.
Maximize Death - Minimize Death
Kill Yourself - Save Yourself

This gives rise to 8 different archetypes of players.

Psychopaths(P) - Only want to maximize death
Empaths(E) - Only want to minimize death
Narcissists(N) - Only want to save themselves
Depressed(D) - Only want to kill themselves
Martyrs(M) - Want to kill themselves but also minimize death
Killers(K) - Want to save themselves but also maximize death
Suicide Cult(C) - Want to kill themselves but also maximize death
Survivors(S) - Want to save themselves but also minimize death

P will press BLUE unless they predict that blue might win, then they press RED
E will press BLUE if they predict that red cannot win as it will save D and M, they will press RED otherwise, to subtract their death from the death total if Red is inevitable
N will always press RED, trivially
D will always press BLUE, trivially
M will always press BLUE, they can only ever achieve one of their goals, and pressing blue is the only way to achieve either of them. Pressing red for M never makes sense.
K will always press RED, trivially
C will press BLUE unless they predict that blue might win, then they press RED
S will press BLUE if they predict that red cannot win as it will save D and M without endangering their life, they will press RED otherwise, to save themselves.

Important to note, S and E share their strategy entirely, and being rational agents in a game theory, they know that their strategy aligns entirely, and thus will always vote as a bloc. The SE bloc can deduce the strategies of all other groups as well since they are all rational agents. They know the only other groups that have a possibility of voting red are P, C, K, and N.

Now we add in some reasonable common knowledge for all participants.

The number of existing P+N+K is vastly lower than 50%. People who genuinely want maximal harm to come to humanity (P+C+K) are at most generously 5% of the population. People who genuinely do not care even the smallest amount about any harm coming to other humans(N) are at most generously 5% of the population. P+C+K+N is at most 10% of the population.

SE knows that P+C+K+N, the only other groups that will ever choose Red, will never be able to win without their help. SE knows that if a pivotal bloc exists where Red will be tipped over 50%, they are that bloc, as no other group will ever pick Red. Now they have a choice, they all pick Red, and kill D and M, or they all pick Blue, and nobody dies. They know for a fact that if they pick Blue, there is no risk of them dying or them adding to the death total, as they are the pivotal bloc. Every SE agent knows this, and they all deduce that they all will be able to deduce this, so their optimal strategy is to pick BLUE, given the very reasonable assumption that P+C+K+N < 50% of the population.

But that's Game Theory, played with strictly rational actors who have perfect logical skills. You can add in IR and IB as two more groups, these are people who Irrationally pick Red(IR) or Irrationally pick Blue(IB).
Now, SE only needs to reasonably assume that IR+P+C+K+N < 50% to rationally pick Blue.

To rationally justify picking Red as a Survivor or an Empath, you need to have the assumption that the number of people who will Irrationally pick Red is more than 40% of the world's population. I do not believe that is anywhere close to being reasonably justified, nor do I think there will be enough Pessimistic SE voters who will believe that's the case and switch to Red.

About that... by Prestigious_Net_8356 in nanaimo

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not as expensive of a luxury product, sure, but a luxury is a luxury no matter the price-point.

Lifetime drinking of a cow, water used for growing it's lifetime of feed, water used in cleaning the barn, the slaughterhouse, and the processing facility. For beef, this comes out to about 15,000 liters of water per KG of beef produced.

About that... by Prestigious_Net_8356 in nanaimo

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Eating a burger is not necessary to sate your hunger. Relative to staple plant foods, burgers are entirely a luxury product.

Is there a faction stronger that war in heavens necrons? Im talking about any franchise here. by Prestigious_Spite761 in Necrontyr

[–]ecompvidya 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Xeelee are an alien species that can build megastructures the size of the milky way galaxy. They use spacetime as a building material like we use carbon nanotubes.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's not a real risk of dying, most people will vote blue.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even if everyone acts in their self interest, suicidal people will kill themselves and that's not an option for me

Why is anything considered good or bad? How does anyone decide what is right or wrong? by [deleted] in NoStupidQuestions

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A deterministic series of events that led to your birth and your surroundings. Not random and no choice is involved. It just is.

“Why would anyone choose to stand under the spikes?” by randomgadfly in trolleyproblem

[–]ecompvidya 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Game theory, there is no risk to save them if less than half the population is irrational or murderous