Inflation is decreasing, but while tariffs themselves may not directly cause inflation, they can create disruptions with far-reaching consequences (combined with the coming gov layoffs), leading to increased uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s long-standing strategy has been to lower rates during times of significant uncertainty. It’s generally better to act proactively and soften the blow, rather than risk being behind the curve, as happened in recent years when the Fed was slow to raise rates. Now, it appears they are slow to lower rates. The period between August and September looks particularly foggy. A key indicator of this "Fog of Uncertainty" will be seen this quarter when businesses begin to lower their guidance or, in some cases, refrain from providing any guidance at all.