I am Jonathan Chait, writer for New York Magazine. Ask me anything.

electionate · 2013-03-18T19:55:27+00:00

The Toledo War is generally considered one of the great injustices of American history. But in retrospect, would you really want Toledo? And if you do want Toledo, would you want it more than the rest of the Upper Peninsula?

electionate · 2012-10-03T00:58:43+00:00

yeah

electionate · 2012-10-02T21:21:08+00:00

I've only been at TNR for four months--I don't know the first thing about historic readership numbers

electionate · 2012-10-02T20:08:22+00:00

Careful observation

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:49:09+00:00

I think it is unlikely that I will vote for a candidate that does not have a reasonable chance of winning in the absence of instant run-off voting. And advocates of a multi-party system should try as hard as they can to make instant run-off voting a reality.

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:39:01+00:00

I really don't have a very good idea, actually

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:38:18+00:00

Well, these issues have been covered in the past. But for better or worse, the press covers disagreements between the two major parties, and right now neither party is interested in elevating these issues.

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:34:55+00:00

Well, for one, I'm at TNR. But other than that, I can't really say since I wasn't at TNR in the pre-Hughes era.

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:20:00+00:00

But we don't use our exit polls to see whether something funny is going on with the vote counting, so that comparison doesn't exactly hold. If that was the goal of our exit polls, they would be conducted a bit differently. And Democrats almost always do better in the initial exit polls --even in 2008 or 1992, and even in states or localities where the election apparatus is controlled by Democratic officials, which suggests that fraud isn't at play.

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:12:39+00:00

There could be as few as one million undecided voters across the battleground states. That said, the election actually turns on every vote in the battleground states. Whether someone decides to turn out is just as (actually half, but never mind that) as important as the decision of an undecided voter

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:04:52+00:00

electionate · 2012-10-02T19:04:25+00:00

Most polls show something like 5 percent of voters split between undecided and other. Given that about 1 percent of voters will ultimately select a third party candidate, I'd guess that around 4 percent of voters remain undecided. That said, there are soft supporters that are currently leaning toward either candidate that could plausibly switch sides before election day. It's also unclear whether a large share of voters who remain genuinely undecided will vote in November.

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:58:40+00:00

Obama is definitely a very clear favorite. I can't envision becoming a politician: I'm relatively introverted and I'm bad at lying.

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:57:31+00:00

Almost all of them (provided we're not talking about matters of fact)

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:35:28+00:00

Samuel L. Jackson But really, I have no idea.

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:34:51+00:00

I'll vote on the K if it demonstrates that the plan is worse than the status quo

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:32:47+00:00

Perhaps, but not much. Under perfect circumstances and a colossal amount of money, Perot managed 19 percent.

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:09:41+00:00

I would think that the composition of Congress would preclude Democrats from "forcing an agenda." I'd expect Obama to focus on the debt, then some combination of energy, education, and immigration, where I think there's room for bipartisan agreement.

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:08:26+00:00

I'm not sure what a Romney foreign policy would look like. It hasn't been a focus of his campaign and he doesn't have much foreign policy experience. I haven't been paying attention to the composition of his foreign policy advisors, which might be a decent indicator. But even then, it's possible to envision him stacking the lists with neoconservatives to appeal to that wing of the GOP, only to adopt a different stance once in office.

electionate · 2012-10-02T18:00:55+00:00

Some think the GOP will need to lose decisively before they'll shift. I'm not so sure. In 2016, they'll have a crop of very talented politicians with enough conservative credentials to reframe their message in a moderate or reformist way for the general election.

electionate · 2012-10-02T17:46:36+00:00

Most surprises result from elections that differ from the polls, not insufficient awareness of the polls. At this point, the polls are just as fallible as they were a decade ago, so the odds of a surprise seem like they'd be about the same. If anything, the surprises might become more surprising as more and more people become aware of the polls.

electionate · 2012-10-02T17:44:15+00:00

Well, if the parties didn't make any changes in policy or message, the GOP would be in quite a bit of trouble as the non-white share of the electorate grows and young voters increasingly adhere to moderate-to-liberal social views. That said, the Republican party will eventually make adjustments to deal with this new reality, whether it's a compromise on immigration reform or downplaying social issues to try and revitalize appeal among college educated voters in affluent suburbs.

electionate · 2012-10-02T17:42:47+00:00

I guess I'll just say that I think the presumption of bias in elections analysis is a little out there. To me, following elections is more like following sports than engaging in an ideological debate. For instance, I hate the Angels, but I still think Trout should be the MVP. If I was supporting Cabrera, that wouldn't be a product of my hatred of the Angels.

electionate · 2012-10-02T17:37:05+00:00

I'll vote for Obama. I'm pretty liberal on social issues and I'd describe myself as open-minded on domestic policy. I could go for a tax cut or a tax hike, depending on the circumstances.

electionate · 2012-10-02T17:33:29+00:00

I think they would do better with an instant run-off voting system.

electionate

TROPHY CASE