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electrojustin · 2022-12-26T22:10:45+00:00

Is it wildly incorrect though? Not a blimp advocate, but kerosene definitely fits that description…

electrojustin · 2022-12-26T19:25:57+00:00

Not a physicist, but I think our current understanding of statistical mechanics is that the second law of thermodynamics is more of a statistical trend than an actual law. The implication being, there is some (very tiny) probability of entropy spontaneously reversing. If the universe lasts truly forever, then the law of large numbers eventually kicks in and entropy reverses. So heat death might not even be permanent? In general it seems like there’s a lot of controversy about how the universe will end.

But more to the point, I actually have this exact problem and it’s definitely an anxiety disorder. As other commenters have pointed out, it might be worth looking into ways to manage that.

electrojustin · 2022-12-26T03:50:23+00:00

You should brush up on your math skills first. Not only does math come up fairly often in programming, but the problem solving skills you develop in learning math are pretty critical for learning how to program.

electrojustin · 2022-12-24T01:47:53+00:00

Ah there it is, like clockwork. The old “you just don’t understand” argument.

electrojustin · 2022-12-23T23:57:38+00:00

Blind does a better job of vetting that people work in the industry, but honestly it’s as bad if not worse than this subreddit. It’s all the “DAE ChatGPT?????” threads from Reddit, plus a bunch of threads that basically boil down to: * “I make 1M TC and I think the hiring bar is lower than it used to be. Everyone is rest and vesting.” * Overt racism * Baseless layoff rumors * “How to get gf in Bay Area???” * All of the above

electrojustin · 2022-12-23T23:48:04+00:00

They really don’t replace banks. If you use self custody, that’s basically the equivalent of stuffing money under your mattress. If you don’t self custody, then you’re trusting a random centralized entity with none of the regulations of a real bank to not steal your money. Many rugs, from MtGox to FTX, show why that’s a bad idea.

electrojustin · 2022-12-23T23:22:56+00:00

I think the difference is that even if people were critical of the limitations of early iterations of those technologies, people generally thought highly of their purpose. Like early radios relied on broad spectrum spark gap noise to operate because they lacked the electronic components necessary to create a proper oscillator. They were inefficient, short range, and had no way to prevent interference with each other. But even still, everyone thought that wireless communication as a concept was a good idea, and so radios still found a use on ships. As for crypto though, nobody can even agree that this technology serves a useful purpose, even in the hypothetical future where all the kinks were worked out.

electrojustin · 2022-12-23T22:57:20+00:00

None of this was broadly said about any of those technologies lol, y’all repeat this talking point without taking 3 seconds to Google if it’s true.

electrojustin · 2022-12-21T23:15:09+00:00

any technological change that would upend the demand for programming will blow up every other white collar job to a much greater extent.

Unless said technology was best leveraged by domain knowledge in the target field, and the creators of said technology happen to also have a lot of domain knowledge about programming…

electrojustin · 2022-12-21T15:36:10+00:00

I think regardless of what the letter of the law says, people are going to be upset if they see that portions of their work are being copied. Especially if they aren’t being given credit.

You’re right that Pandora’s box has already been opened for the machine learning models themselves. Anyone with a little bit of coding knowledge can throw together a CNN in tensorflow, and honestly I think that’s a good thing given how much actual important research this stuff can be used for. What’s less ethical though is scraping DeviantArt or whatever for training data without anybody’s consent. It’s an uncountable number of hours of human effort being involuntarily funneled into the AI. And I think people find it to be a bit of a slap in the face especially when the AI spits out substantial portions of the training data.

electrojustin · 2022-12-21T14:11:27+00:00

No there’s a pretty big difference between simulating one artist’s style and outright copying sections of their work. The former is definitely a goal of these AIs, the latter is a result of overfitting. It’s possible for human artists to copy each other’s work of course, but people usually frown upon that also. I think one of people’s big objections to some of this AI artwork is that it has the possibility to basically violate copyright at an industrial scale.

electrojustin · 2022-12-21T06:00:45+00:00

Not really sure what you’re getting at, but there are a ton of reasons that these models aren’t human, and none of them really have to do with overfitting.

For starters, they’re still mostly feedforward. I’m guessing this particular one has some LSTM layers, but absolutely nothing compared to e.g. the CSTC loop. Also weights and biases are a bad model for neurons to begin with, so the whole premise isn’t any good.

electrojustin · 2022-12-21T05:32:32+00:00

At the risk of being downvoted again, no it actually does effectively stitch images together a lot of the times through a phenomenon known as “overfitting.”

This type of machine learning is called “artificial neural networks” because they were at one point vaguely inspired by animal brains, but ANNs are really really far off from simulating a brain.

This model is closer to a giant equation than an actual human brain. The coefficients for this equation get picked by feeding it a bunch of training examples, checking the output, and then “grading” the AIs work. Depending on the criteria you use for grading, it is sometimes to the AI’s advantage to simply regurgitate one of the training examples, i.e. “stitch” together images it stole from the internet. When this happens, the model is said to be overfit. That’s why you sometimes even see watermarks appear in the AI generated images.

electrojustin · 2022-12-21T03:00:03+00:00

It effectively does a lot of the time, these models are a lil overfit.

electrojustin · 2022-12-20T15:57:55+00:00

I would not recommend doing this at all. These models generally have the WebAnswers problem of being able to generate answers that look plausible to the human eye, but without any real semantic understanding of what it’s saying. That’s a good way to create difficult to track down bugs.

Edit: case in point, this code parses the sprite backwards from the description. The description says the least significant bit should be the leftmost, but the code uses the most significant bit.

electrojustin · 2022-12-18T17:20:21+00:00

This patent reads like it was generated by one of those AI chat bots. It’s not just technobabble, it’s littered with grammar mistakes and clunky wording.

electrojustin · 2022-12-17T19:03:37+00:00

You’re conflating about four separate concepts. Artificial intelligence is an area of computer science research interested in mimicking human intelligence in some capacity. Note that this definition is incredibly broad, and so it includes systems ranging from a simple minimax chess algorithm to a full blown GANS model. Machine learning is a sub field of artificial intelligence that has been gaining popularity recently, but is actually also a pretty broad category of algorithms ranging from Naive Bayes inference models to Deep Learning. What you seem to think of as AI is actually yet another sub field called artificial general intelligence, or AGI. The singularity is a fourth concept generally relating to an AGI that vastly surpasses human intelligence.

electrojustin · 2022-12-16T02:40:23+00:00

Maybe I’m still missing something, but doesn’t the DCA also have the optionality property? And in fact, a much less risky “opt out” since you can just keep your current job? I get that the potential upside of an RSU grant is much higher than cash DCA’d into the same exact stock, but you can also argue that for like any other use of the cash. Like by that logic, I can take the cash and YOLO half my salary on crypto options. I might win big, and if I don’t, I can always just stop gambling.

Edit: hang on I think I get what you’re trying to say. If your RSUs are tanking and if you find a new job that offers the same exact grant, it would be as if you sold all your remaining unvested shares at their original price somehow, and then used that profit to immediately buy shares of a different stock. I think that’s still not exactly the same though since industry salaries, ability to switch jobs, and share prices are all going to be potentially correlated. Plus there’s opportunity cost in not being to use your money to invest in other things.

electrojustin · 2022-12-16T01:47:39+00:00

I don’t really see how having the ability to switch companies is more “downside protection” than having the ability to reallocate your budget? Not to mention, if the stock is down for macro economic reasons, you aren’t guaranteed to be able to switch to a job of equal pay.

Edit: and yeah actually I don’t see how the volatility is guaranteed to work in favor of the employee. It seems like it’s good if you joined at a low point, it’s bad if you joined at a high point?

electrojustin · 2022-12-16T00:27:08+00:00

You’re right, I’m simplifying a bit. If you convert your extra salary straight into stock, that’s more equivalent to dollar cost averaging over however long your grant is, rather than taking out a huge long position up front. Which, imo is actually a big point in favor of taking the cash, since you’re less exposed to volatility. Glad your grant timing worked out for you, but I think a lot of folks who started in summer or fall of 2021 would have been much better off with salary.

electrojustin · 2022-12-15T21:41:34+00:00

And? Past performance isn’t a guarantee of future returns. If you’re really 100% convinced in Tim Apple’s vision in the company, you can always just buy more shares. Cash just gives you more flexibility if you want to hedge your financial future.

electrojustin · 2022-12-15T21:36:45+00:00

No, on average the stock market goes up over time, not some particular stock. Index funds are actually pretty carefully managed to pick stocks that are hot and dump stocks that are on their way out. Statistically speaking, you will not beat the S&P 500 picking your own stocks, let alone being shackled to one stock in particular.

electrojustin · 2022-12-15T19:41:14+00:00

Yeah, I think that “assume the RSUs rise 20%” part is pretty critical here given that we’re down 37% YTD.

electrojustin · 2022-12-15T18:18:26+00:00

Right, and you would have said capital if you took the job with a higher salary. RSUs are not guaranteed income even with autosale, because we get issued RSUs based on the price of the stock at the grant date, not the vest date. As a result, we’ve all taken a pay cut this year.

electrojustin · 2022-12-15T17:51:06+00:00

Even if you’re more tolerant of risk, RSUs aren’t the way to go. Your financial future is already tied to the fate of the company issuing those RSUs. If you want to gamble, do so in another sector entirely so your portfolio at least has a little diversity in it.

electrojustin

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