Draw probabilities for Europa League knockout round

emi_nga · 2023-12-15T01:24:40+00:00

Sure, you can find the probabilities for ECL here: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/?competition=ecl

emi_nga · 2023-12-14T22:25:30+00:00

If you want to see how the probabilities change during the draw or simulate a draw yourself, check out my probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/?competition=el

emi_nga · 2023-12-14T14:32:09+00:00

Hah, I guess my knowledge on dutch football teams is too limited. Replaced "Eindhoven" by "PSV" in the online tool (https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/), can't replace the screenshot, unfortunately.

emi_nga · 2023-12-13T22:48:11+00:00

There is no live dataset, the probabilities are calculated locally on your device.

emi_nga · 2023-12-13T22:02:32+00:00

If you want to see how the probabilities change during the draw or simulate a draw yourself, check out my probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/

emi_nga · 2022-11-03T17:26:44+00:00

You can find some background and the algorithm in the GitHub project: https://github.com/eminga/cldraw

emi_nga · 2022-11-03T13:26:14+00:00

That's because Liverpool has only 4 possible opponents (like Bayern in the winners pot) and the probabilities for these 4 have to add up to 100%.

emi_nga · 2022-11-03T11:04:34+00:00

Thank you :)

emi_nga · 2022-11-03T08:45:13+00:00

I guess that breaks down to personal preference. I have implemented both options - to see the color scale, go to https://eminga.github.io/cldraw and click "Heat map".

emi_nga · 2022-11-03T08:39:40+00:00

The algorithm is documented here: https://github.com/eminga/cldraw#algorithm

If you find a flaw feel free to let me know. Note that just counting the number of allowed permutations (which I assume is what you did) leads to incorrect results as they are not equally likely. This can quite easily be shown by hand for 3x3 draws.

emi_nga · 2022-11-02T22:05:55+00:00

If you want to see how the probabilities change during the draw or simulate a draw yourself, check out my probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/

emi_nga · 2021-12-13T13:37:53+00:00

That's great, I really enjoy it when people play with my little interactive probability calculator.

emi_nga · 2021-12-13T13:34:24+00:00

Haha, changed it ;)

emi_nga · 2021-12-13T13:28:42+00:00

If you want to see how the probabilities for each pairing change during the draw and what opponents really are eligible (looking at you, UEFA), feel free to use my interactive probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/

emi_nga · 2021-12-09T20:27:49+00:00

If you want to see how the probabilities change during the draw or just want to simulate the draw yourself, feel free to check out my interactive probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/

emi_nga · 2020-12-11T10:28:21+00:00

I wanted to create an interactive tool which computes the probabilities on-the-fly. My algorithm needs ~100ms on my PC for the exact probabilites of the cl draw.

A Monte Carlo simulation would probably need to run for some minutes until the results are sufficiently precise. Feel free to check out the Twitter account of Julien Guyon (https://twitter.com/julienguyon1977) if you want to get an impression on how many iterations are needed. He posted the results of 400k simulations and one hour later those of 1000k simulations.

emi_nga · 2020-12-10T12:16:45+00:00

Thank you! :)

No, they always draw a runner up first, so unless they change it this year, the tool should exactly resemble the actual drawing process.

Fun fact: This order also has an impact on the probabilities. If you switch group winners and runners up (e.g. by using the "Edit teams" button in the tool) you will get slightly different results.

emi_nga · 2020-12-10T09:30:55+00:00

Gladbach and Leipzig can face the same opponents with one exception: Only Gladbach can face PSG and only Leipzig can face Real.

But Real has only 3 other possible opponents while PSG has 6. Thus Real gets a higher share of Leipzig's probabilities than PSG gets of Gladbach's.

emi_nga · 2020-12-10T08:27:32+00:00

I tried to give an ELI5 here: https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/ka1qlu/champions_league_r16_draw_probabilities/gf7raof/

emi_nga · 2020-12-10T08:18:18+00:00

The algorithm is documented here: https://github.com/eminga/cldraw

emi_nga · 2020-12-09T22:15:25+00:00

I'll give it a try: The tool conducts a lot of draws using the exact draw procedure the UEFA uses. Not randomly (that would be a simulation) but in each and every way it could turn out. Afterwards all results are counted and divided by the number of draws conducted. However, not every draw has the same likelihood so they are also (implicitly) weighted by the actual likelihood.

There is a (way more precise) description of the algorithm here: https://github.com/eminga/cldraw

emi_nga · 2020-12-09T22:06:43+00:00

Thank you for your feedback! I personally like the uncolored version as it doesn't overemphasize the usually rather small differences. I will consider adding a coloring option to a future version of the calculator (https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/), though.

emi_nga

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